World Cup Recaps and Previews, Saturday July 4: And Then There Were 16
On to the next round!
Franklin's out, Campbell's in. What can he do with a late hire, a challenging transfer portal, and a pretty soft schedule? Let's break it down.
Penn State Nittany Lions, 2025 Recap: The Ballad of Frames Janklin
Every Rose Bowl appearance has its thorn
Off Tackle Republic
Schedule
Predictions
Transient Buckeye: Penn State may have had a rough go of it last year, but Dan Matt Campbell couldn't have asked for a better schedule for the first year of his rebuilding effort. The nonconference slate should set Penn State up for a 3-0 start, even if there are some bumps along the way, and the Lions open up Big Ten play with Wisconsin and Northwestern, neither of whom figures to be that scary this season (of course, the same could've been said about Northwestern last season, and we all saw how that worked out). The two-game stretch against USC at home and Michigan on the road won't go well. But after that, the only remotely frightening game is the road trip to Washington. There's always the chance that PSU takes an inexplicable loss, but they should also be capable of pulling an upset over one of their more challenging foes. If Campbell can put together even an average roster by PSU standards, this looks like a 9-3 (6-3) year.
Kind of...: I am 95% in the "Matt Campbell is going to win big at PSU" camp. There are a lot of 7-6 and 8-5 seasons on his record at Iowa State. But he also has as many top 10 wins as James Franklin did despite not starting in Ames until 2016. Additionally, Iowa State might be the single worst P4 job in the country. Iowa isn't a football hotbed. The in-state rival is in a much richer conference. No tradition. No deep pockets. It's pretty rough. A 72-55 career record there is, easily, the best run in school history. Earle Bruce is the only other coach since 1920 to leave Ames with a winning record, and that includes Johnny Majors (won natty with Pitt) and Gene Chizik (had Cam Newton win natty for him at Auburn). Take away his first year and Campbell had a .600 winning % at Iowa State. Check back in five years and tell me how Iowa State is doing. If it's above .400%, I'll be impressed. (And this is no disrespect to Jimmy Rogers. He seems really talented. Talented enough to get a better job if he has any success in Ames.)
Now, does he raise the ceiling? Interesting question. His approach at Iowa State was "be fundamentally sound," trending toward Ferentz-lite. What will he do when he has a clear talent advantage?
Both because he's so heavily dependent on guys he brought with him this year, AND because the schedule is pretty inviting this year, I think year 2 and 3 will be more honest reflections of what he can do in State College. On paper, a 5-0 start seems pretty foreseeable. But Wisconsin should be a lot better on offense, and @Northwestern is far from an assumed win. PSU will likely be dogs vs. USC, @Michigan, and @Washington, but none are auto losses. And Campbell beat Lincoln Riley-helmed Oklahoma twice while at Iowa State. It's exactly the sort of let-them-make-mistakes win he specializes in.
Given how late the hire was, PSU just doesn't have the roster they would've otherwise, so let's say 8-4/5-4. But Campbell can win here. And will.
