MNW: Last night's "Watch That" game – Colorado State at Texas State – was largely a bust, unless you like teams scoring points just for the sheer sake of scoring points: it ended 66-27, Bobcats, though I'm a little mad at the Texas State kicker for hooking a 30-yard field goal late that would've made it a really nice scoreline.
I dunno how G.J. Kinne isn't at a Big XII school by now, man.
The Bobcats coach has posted three straight winning seasons in San Marcos since a historic 2022 at Incarnate Word, and this year Texas State is just continuing to put up points for fun: since a 59-7 loss to Texas in Week 1, they've scored 26 (in a 31-26 loss to UTSA), 49, 63, 29 (in a 31-29 loss to SDSU), and 66. It's attractive football and San Marcos is a cool town...but this dude could surely be putting up these kinds of numbers at a TCU or a Baylor or a Cal or something.
Get him a defensive coordinator and let G.J. Kinne cook.
About Last Week
Thoughts
- We've really sucked this year, but glassjawed went 7-1 ATS last week. That's doin' some work.
- Straight-up standings are super close, with HoustonBoiler (.792) currently edging AlmaOtter and BuffKomodo (.788).
- Sure, I only went 5-3 last week, and I'm languishing at .462 like some common plebe, but CHECK OUT THIS SICK 2.5pt MIDDLE:
Picks
all times Central because reasons apparently
Friday, October 16
Washington Huskies @ Purdue Boilermakers
8pm | Fox | Purdue -3.5 | O/U: 52.5
ATS: Purdue 12-2 | Straight Up: Purdue 12-2
Transient Buckeye: I’m going to pick Purdue to win as a 3.5-point home favorite. And I actually feel pretty good about them getting the cover. Sorry, Boilers.
Buffkomodo: I guess the magic remains. Indulge me Purdue fans. Imagine for a moment that your athletic department was halfway competent and wanted for your football program to have success. Imagine you replace Wake Forest and Notre Dame with Nevada and Kennesaw State. You could be going for bowl eligibility. No? Well winning sounds more fun to me.
glass: So the takeaway from Buff is that scheduling anyone other than the Sisters of the Poor or High School JV teams in the non-con makes your AD incompetent. Noted. (The rest of us will continue to correctly point out that IU’s non-con is embarrassing). ANYHOW, Purdue on a win streak is a glitch within the continuum that needs immediately corrected or reality risks tearing itself apart. Huskies roll.
IUinVA: Washington looked like a different team with a QB that wasn’t contractually obligated to appear. The defense, however… Yikes. Trains continue rolling towards a BOWL GAME.
Buffkomodo: Yes glass, because scheduling a series where you’ve lost by 39, 26, and 59 is great scheduling.
misdreavus79: Someone grab me the “you both suck” gif, stat! Anyway Purdue wins because suddenly Penn State’s historically easy schedule doesn’t have a single shitty team in it. FUCK!
Thumpasaurus: This Washington, on the road? No thanks
HoustonBoiler: Okay Boilers, you have convinced me. Last year, the Huskies were very chippy about pounding Purdue in Seattle. They even awarded the game ball to Ryan Walters. I have to believe that the Purdue players remember. Purdue wins and covers.
RockyMtnBlue: Whoda thunk 2 months ago that Purdue would be favored in this game? Whoda thunk that I’d look at that and say “Purdue is being disrespected”? Purdue 34-27
MNW: Completely picking against the run of play. I thought Elijah Brown had good energy last week against Iowa, and Purdue's defense is still dogshit against anyone who goes faster than molasses (see: anyone except Minnesota).
It's time to start dragging some of these B1G West crabs back into their bucket, and we'll start with the Boilers. Washington, 33-28.
Saturday, October 17
(4) Ohio State Buckeyes @ (5) THE National Champion Indiana Hoosiers
11am | Fox | OSU -3.5 | O/U: 50.5
ATS: OSU 8-6 | Straight Up: OSU 12-2
Transient Buckeye: Going with OSU to get the win and cover, but only because that’s how I picked this game in the preseason. Not brimming with confidence on this one. Hammering the under feels like it would be a good idea.
Buffkomodo: Hammer the under but have confidence in the Buckeyes winning here. Not necessarily because Indiana will get killed or OSU will pull away. A game winning touchdown by OSU covers the spread and to my knowledge Indiana hasn’t covered all year.
IUinVA: A colossal matchup between two football goliaths of equal pedigree and historical success. We all know the stats. These programs have combined for 10 National Championships, 42 Big Ten Championships, and 8 Heisman winners. I don’t know which program is which, so I’ll just go with the one that won the most recent National Championship, is currently on a 22-game win streak, and is playing at home.
misdreavus79: It doesn’t happen often, but every time Ryan Day’s Ohio State has found itself in a revenge spot, it doesn’t go well for the other team. Ohio State 38, Indiana 22
Thumpasaurus: Consulting my power rankings. This is 1 vs 3. I’ll take 1 (Indiana)
HoustonBoiler: All streaks end eventually, and I am predicting that Indiana’s 22 game winning streak ends on Saturday. However, the Hoosiers keep it close and cover because they have yet to cover against a FBS opponent, another streak that’s gonna end.
RockyMtnBlue: OSU recaptures the Death Star moniker, because of course they do. Dear 2026, fuck off. Ohio State 31-21
MNW: Indiana can't get away with playing with its food against Ohio State. Can they? Buckeyes, 35-21.
(25) Northwestern Wildcats @ Michigan State Spartans
11am | Peacock | Northwestern -7.5 | O/U: 48.5
ATS: Northwestern 11-3 | Straight Up: Northwestern 13-1
Transient Buckeye: Michigan State was unexpectedly spunky last weekend against Illinois. Probably the last time we’re going to see that for a while. ‘Cats win and cover.
Buffkomodo: Northwestern utterly destroys MSU as MSU has been a bumbling bunch this season.
IUinVA: This line is way off. Cats by at least three scores.
misdreavus79: Michigan State will find a way to at no point be in contention to win the game, but somehow make it look like it’s a game. It’s what Fitzgerald is best at. Northwestern 20, Michigan State 10
Thumpasaurus: They may have been competitive, but they still lost at home to Illinois, which as we’ve now established is no longer “halfway decent early 20’s Illinois” but just “Illinois” again. They’re getting rolled.
HoustonBoiler: Look, Northwestern is the better team and should win this game. However, I have to believe Fitz has had this one circled since the moment he stepped into his new office in East Lansing. Cats win, but Sparty covers.
RockyMtnBlue: Purdue. Northwestern. Wisconsin. Dafuc is with these uppity West teams not knowing their place?!? Sparty’s coming off a heartbreaking loss last week. Could MSU be the new Nebraska, finding new ways to lose by a single score? That would be really fun! Northwestern 24-21.
MNW: Ranked Northwestern, man.
Ranked fucking Northwestern.
Rob Henry knows what he did.
Anyway, there's nothing quite like getting dragged into a dumbass dogfight with a Pat Fitzgerald-coached squad. Ah, how I know it well. And thanks, I fucking hate it. Sparty, 21-17.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Maryland Terrapins
11:30am | BTN | Maryland -6 | O/U: 56.6
ATS: Rutgers 13-1 | Straight Up: Rutgers 8-6
Transient Buckeye: I really, really want to pick Rutgers here. But I can’t do it. The Knights’ defense is nonexistent, and I think Maryland has the weapons to make them pay. Terps win, Knights get a backdoor cover.
Buffkomodo: I picked Rutgers. Coin flip. Maryland has looked like dog shit all year. Despite the lols we’ve had, the Gers has looked competent on at least 3 occasions.
IUinVA: B1G Game of the Year candidate. One of these teams will walk away with an actual Big Ten win (maybe a tie? Can they find a way to tie??). Maryland 27, Rutgers 24.
Misdreavus79: I flipped a coin and it came up Rutgers.
Thumpasaurus: I’ll take the best player in this game. KJ Duff wins this for rutger by himself
HoustonBoiler: This year's toilet bowl. Maryland just doesn't strike me this season as a team who prepares. I expect Rutgers to get the ball to KJ Duff early and often. As the best player on the field, he will lead Rutgers to a win.
RockyMtnBlue: I really hope this game lives up to its potential as an absolute shitshow of entertainment. The West has gone and fucked itself up and become competent, so now we’re counting on the East for our sickos games. These teams are terribad, but I’ll take Knights for absolutely no discernable reason. Rutgers 19-18
MNW: Kyyyyyyyyyriiiiiiieeeeeee! Kyyyyyyyyyriiiiiiieeeeeee!
Kyrie Eleison down the road that I must travel... Kyrie Eleison through the darkness of the niiiiight... Maryland, 35-34.
Penn State Nittany Lions @ Michigan Wolverines
2:30pm | CBS | Michigan -6.5 | O/U: 42.5
ATS: Penn State 9-5 | Straight Up: Michigan 12-2
Transient Buckeye: Real Sickos Special potential here. First one to 14 wins. I think that’s Michigan, if only because this series has heavily favored the home team. Wolverines win, but that’s a big spread for a team with a mostly-theoretical offense to cover.
Buffkomodo: this game is gross.
IUinVA: The undercard to the Rutgers-Maryland game where one of these teams will also walk away with their first Big Ten win. Michigan 16, Penn State 13.
Transient Buckeye: I really love that you referred to this as the undercard for Maryland-Rutgers–but not nearly as much as I love the fact that your statement is not obviously wrong. It’s a shame I’m obligated to hate you this week.
misdreavus79: A Michigan Man once told me that Penn State can only beat Michigan when Michigan sucks (offer only valid between the 2021-23 seasons), and I’ve been told this Michigan team sucks, so. Penn State 20, Michigan 17
Thumpasaurus: In none of their three losses have the Wolverines been slapped around like Penn State was against Northwestern. I’m going with the higher floor in Michigan.
HoustonBoiler: Who would have thought that at this point in the B1G season neither Penn State (0-3) and Michigan (0-2) would have a conference win, while Purdue is 2-1. Certainly not me. I have no idea what will happen so I will go with the home clock advantage. Michigan wins and covers, perhaps on a hail Mary after regulation time has expired with one second on the game clock.
RockyMtnBlue: I make my picks just before putting the article together on Thursday night, and imagine my surprise when I see 12/13 other writers picked Michigan to win this game. Y’all not watch football this year? Misdreavus and I gain on the field in the straight-up standings as the Nits get a walk-off safety. Penn State 16-15
MNW:
Wisconsin Badgers @ (12) UCLA Bruins
6:30pm | NBC | UCLA -2.5 | O/U: 45.5
ATS: Tied 7-7 | Straight Up: UCLA 9-5
Transient Buckeye: This is an interesting matchup between two teams who are having better seasons than I’d expected in the preseason. But of the two, UCLA’s success feels just a little bit more sustainable. Bruins win and cover.
Buffkomodo: I refuse to believe Wisconsin has their feet back under them enough to allow them to upset UCLA. That probably means the Badgers will win but it’s whatever.
IUinVA: I’m middling this one, but UCLA will find a way to win and continue their trek to the CFP. With their efficient and explosive running game, UCLA truly is a team of density.
misdreavus79: Against my better judgment, I’m picking Wisconsin to win. Wisconsin 13, UCLA 10
Thumpasaurus: UCLA is only getting this few points because Nico is out, but they still have a very good running game. Seems there was a rash of backup quarterback play this weekend. UCLA, Oregon, Illinois and Washington all played QB2 at some point with Oregon going to QB3. Anyway, UCLA will win this.
HoustonBoiler: Normally, I would take UCLA here, because fuck wisconsin. However, with Nico Iamaleava out, I think wisconsin can focus on stopping the run. The Goodgers manage to pick up a road win.
RockyMtnBlue: UCLA is WAAAAAYYYY better than I expected this year, and here they are only 2.5pt favorites at home over Wisconsin. This season is so stupid. But not in a fun way. Just stupid stupid. UCLA 24-20
MNW: Replacing a quarterback. Pretty simple logic.
If I had really been thinking, though, I'd have remembered that this game was at the Rose Bowl, and lmao we know wisconsin's not winning there.
Nevertheless. badgers, 29-22.
Nebraska Cornhuskers @ Oregon Ducks
10pm | Fox | Oregon -7.5 | O/U: 52.5
ATS: Nebraska 10-4 | Straight Up: Oregon 8-6
Transient Buckeye: Taking the Ducks to win and cover, because I don’t like Nebraska’s odds of going on the road and winning, but this isn’t the absolute slam-dunk I would’ve predicted it to be during the preseason.
Buffkomodo: AS IT TURNS OUT…Dante Moore was kinda important. Oregon looks like a lifeless husk when they don’t play USC and don’t have Moore. I guess give me Nebraska outright.
IUinVA: Nebraska has to be scratching their heads after losing last week’s match, despite winning three out of four sets. Oregon is reeling and it’s not like they have Patrick Mahomes coming off the bench (ope, hold on, this comment has been flagged for further review… phew, upheld). The pollsters even did Nebraska a favor by un-ranking Oregon, so they don’t need to think about “that whole thing.” This game is way past my bedtime, but I look forward to waking up on Sunday morning to review the box score of Nebraska 34, Oregon 10.
misdreavus79: Jesus christ Nebraska if you can’t beat this Oregon team! Nebrasker 12, Oregon 9
Thumpasaurus: Oregon has too much talent, but Nebarkas covers.
HoustonBoiler: In addition to what Thump said, I have to believe Oregon would be mad about losing last week. Then again, they have underperformed all season. The Ducks eke out a win, but the Huskers cover.
RockyMtnBlue: Nebraska. Another uppity west team. For fucks sake this season. Nebraska 21-20
MNW: You saw Dylan Raiola, yes? Huskers, 23-13.
Too Cowardly To Play
Illinois Fighting Illini
Iowa Hawkeyes
Minnesota Golden Gophers
USC Trojans
Transient Buckeye: Bye should be able to put up at least 24 on USC’s defense.
Buffkomodo: Had they lost to Penn State, the 24 points would have been enough to beat them because I imagine we’d seen Tarmac-ed 2: Leaving Lincoln
misdreavus79: Letting Purdue put 42 on you and having to think about it for a whole two weeks. Ouch.
HoustonBoiler: Good thing for the Goofs that Purdue only scored 41! LOL!!! I’m hoping that PJ reminds them about being blown out by Purdue every day and twice on Sunday.
RockyMtnBlue: You know the season isn’t going well when you’re envious of the teams on the bye week.
