After years of winning this thing, I'm somehow not in the running and/or approaching dead fucking last. This week I managed to – we think – create a new tab in the spreadsheet for Week 4 (non-existent as of now) and make my picks there.
I think we found the problem, is what I'm saying.
This is, though, one of the broader challenges of the new Big Ten: I cannot keep up with my own life, let alone try to wrap my head around a conference made up of 18 teams in which three or four of them are paying and playing this game as if it is fundamentally different from the one the other fourteen or fifteen are playing. The recent athletics spending data from The Athletic showed us as much – consistent elite play in college football is rapidly becoming even more the playplace of the wealthy.
It begs a couple interesting questions, at least for the Big Ten purist in me: can Indiana keep up? can Iowa just keep on being Iowa? what is Washington football, and why am I mostly convinced it's a fever dream?
I went for a late walk tonight and, as most men do, thought about the Roman Empire the Big Ten. Would it really be that much better had Maryland and Rutgers never joined? Was it possible to envision a world in which Northwestern could be competitive in an expanded Big Ten?
Weirdly, I have come around to the additions of our East Coast brethren only in the pragmatic sense that it's nice to have a couple extra whipping boys – a couple extra Purdues, if you will, to make up the numbers so that it's not always Northwestern or Illinois or Michigan State at the bottom of the pile.
My continuing working theory is that that's the ultimate stumbling block of the Super League of NCAA Football – it's not that Ohio State and Texas and Alabama and Michigan aren't comfortable being in a conference with each other (God knows they deserve each other), it's that the marginal teams in 12-20 don't want to be staring up at yearly 3-9 (1-8) campaigns. Is that gonna be UCLA? South Carolina? Florida State? Clemson?
It's certainly not going to be my school, comfortable among the mediocre with that perennial glimmer of hope that they'll catch a hot streak and those extra fundamentals, the little bits of added discipline – that those will win the day and get you to that elusive tenth win.
Oh God, was Kirk Ferentz right all along?
About Last Week(s)
(click to embiggen)
Thoughts:
- I'm winning!!
- ...with a .517 average. Christ we all suck.
- RUready4Brazil leading the pack straight up at .828. That's pretty good considering the carnage of week 2.
Picks
Saturday, Sept 19
Kent State Golden Flashes @ Ohio State Buckeyes
11:00am | FOX | OSU -52.5 | O/U: 59.5
IUinVA: Silly line. I’ll say that the Golden Flashes watched last week’s game in Austin and now smell blood (lose by 52).
Thumpasaurus: This line is anything but silly, it’s within half a point of the margin by which Ohio State beat Ball State in Week 1. This is a fun matchup for neutrals in London, a 1-1 team versus a complete tomato can. Ohio State wins.
HoustonBoiler: That’s a lot of points. Does Ryan Day really want to risk an injury to one of his top players in a game against a greatly overmatched opponent on the eve of conference play? Ohio State wins by a lot, 52 or less. Kent State covers.
Buffkomodo: Kent state can’t stop an angry, going for it on 4th Ryan day. Bug meet windshield.
Transient Buckeye: Either Ohio State comes out flat, in which case they’ll only win by about thirty, or they come out mad, and win by whatever score they want. I’m guessing it’ll be the later. OSU wins and covers.
misdreavus79: they already covered 50 this season so what’s another?
RockyMtnBlue: Sooooo…OSU could win 62-10 and NOT cover? They’re winning the natty this year. They’ll cover. Ohio State 63-10
MNW: Huh. 53? Really, MNW? You took the Buckeyes to do another 53-point win? Sure. Buckeyes, 63-7.
Buffalo Bulls @ Penn State Nittany Lions
11:00am | BTN | PSU -40.5 | O/U: 50.5
Thumpasaurus: I refuse to accept Penn State looking like that much of a machine for three straight weeks
IUinVA: I don’t know about this game, but more importantly, I don’t care. I’ll take the Bulls and the points.
HoustonBoiler: Penn State has looked great against tomato cans and will continue to do so. They win but Buffalo covers.
Buffkomodo: Split because who cares.
Transient Buckeye: That is a BIG spread, and Buffalo isn’t an awful MAC program. PSU wins, but the Bulls get the cover.
misdreavus79: it’s a big one!
RockyMtnBlue: PSU was the team that eats cupcakes in week 1, and then not so much in week 2. Which will show up? Well the latter would be more fun, so I’m just gonna assume it’s the former. Penn State 49-7
MNW: This is a pick I want back. Buffalo barely survived FCS Albany in Week 1 before going to Miami-ish and losing to our Sunblazers by two scores.
The Bulls losing their starting QB in that one hurt (and he might not be ready for this one), but more concerning is how one-dimension their lack of running game makes them. Penn State pins their ears back and I'm left praying for a hook. Nittany Lions, 49-10.
Akron Zips @ Minnesota Golden Gophers
11:00am | BTN | Minnesota -23.5 | O/U: 48.5
Thumpasaurus: Minnesota is the epitome of a Beef Gate where if you don’t have the stats to compete with them in the trenches, they’ll smash you until you grind enough levels to compete with them. But once you get your stats past a certain point, they run out of ways to beat you very quickly. Goofs cover, big day for Darius Taylor
IUinVA: If I don’t know, I’m just going to pick against the B1G team covering a big spread.
HoustonBoiler: Minnesota wins, but Akron gets a late score to cover.
Buffkomodo: Split because this feels very much like that time Indiana went to 3 OT to beat Akron three years ago and we all knew it was over for CTA…but for Minnesota this time?
Transient Buckeye: Akron is terrible, but do I trust Minnesota to cover a spread that big? I do not.
misdreavus79: look what doing the least got you!
RockyMtnBlue: I mean…Akron is awful, right? Minnesota 31-3
MNW: Imagine how dogshit you'd have to be to lose at home to Akron. IMAGINE.
I've benched Darius Taylor in fantasy because – surprise, surprise – he's facing some sort of small injury. The Gophers shouldn't need him to win this game, and I wouldn't be surprised if they air it out a little with Drake Lindsey and Javon Tracy.
Akron and Joe Moorhead offer...fun? Cibastian Broughton (in lieu of the eligibility-hampered Reece Poffenbarger!) is a dual-threat quarterback who shouldn't beguile the Gophers on the level that Kamario Taylor did, but if the Zips can get an early score, we'll see that discomfort as Minnesota has to be what they're not made to be: a team playing from behind. Gophers, 31-7.
Eastern Michigan Eagles @ Wisconsin Badgers
11:30am | Peacock | Sconny -24.5 | O/U: 45.5
Thumpasaurus: EMU is just not that good this year unfortunately.
IUinVA: See my previous comment.
HoustonBoiler: Minnesota wisconsin wins, but Akron Eastern gets a late score to cover.
Buffkomodo: I don’t remember what i picked and I’m too lazy to go look at the sheet again.
Transient Buckeye: EMU looked competitive for stretches of the MSU game despite the lopsided final score. Feels like they should be able to cover that spread. Wisconsin stil wins comfortably.
misdreavus79: if they couldn’t cover against an FBs team…
RockyMtnBlue: I don’t know. I’m just making this shit up. Wisconsin 28-7
MNW: Turns out Noah Kim might not be that good a D-I quarterback? Huh.
I'm with Transient on this one – I haven't seen quite enough from the badger passing attack to fear them, and EMU is just frisky enough to make this work. badgers, 28-13.
USC Trojans @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights
2:30pm | CBS | USC -24.5 | O/U: 59.5
IUinVA: Purely fading the public by picking a Rutgers cover here. Southern Cal gave up 30 to the Ragin’ Cajuns last week. Duff Man has the opportunity to put on a show for a potential future employer. This is a long flight for Southern Cal from beautiful Los Angeles to beautiful Newark, New Jersey. This game has the potential to be stupid and unwatchable, just the way Rutgers likes it. Go get ‘em, ‘Gers.
Thumpasaurus: Duff could have a huge day and Rutgers could still easily fail to cover. They have no quarterbacks that can take care of the ball and no DB’s that can match up with USC’s receivers.
HoustonBoiler: I think USC is a bit over-rated and has to cross the country BUT Rutgers is terrible. USC rolls, but KJ Duff makes enough plays that Rutgers covers.
Buffkomodo: I thinks Rutgers is going to get mollywhopped perhaps worse than Kent State.
Transient Buckeye: Rutgers lost by 16 to UMass. Do I think USC is 8.5 points better than UMass? Yes I do. Trojans get the cross-country win and cover.
misdreavus79: yeah no.
RockyMtnBlue:
Yup. USC travels 9 million miles to play at Rutgers. In a conference game. In the Big10. Every single university president, AD, TV exec, and especially conference commissioner who contributed to this current state of affairs should be executed. Slowly.
I would hammer this Over. USC 56-24
MNW: I think the Over in this was my Cold Brew selection in the weekly Six Pack, and for good reason – KJ Duff is a lot of damn fun, and while the Trojans will have some of the time zone rust to shake off, they can score points for fun.
They can also allow points for fun, and I'm banking on them to do just that. Trojans, 48-24.
Texas El Paso Miners @ Michigan Wolverines
2:30pm | BTN | Michigan -35.5 | O/U: 49.5
Thumpasaurus: Oklahoma beat UTEP 51-0. Oklahoma is worse than Michigan. Shitty, even. UTEP is hot ass.
IUinVA: I picked Michigan to cover last week, but I do not trust this team. UTEP is bad, and I don’t think they’ll win outright like Western Michigan, but I’m not giving 35.5 points to a Michigan team that has scored 24 (legitimate) total points on the season.
HoustonBoiler: Michigan wins, but I think they’ll have a bit of a letdown after their huge win over Oklahoma. UTEP covers.
Buffkomodo: Michigan cannot score enough to cover this on offense, soooooo split?
Transient Buckeye: Michigan will win easily, UTEP may not score. But Michigan has only put up 24 30 points through two games. A 35.5-point spread feels too big.
misdreavus79: yeah no, part 2
RockyMtnBlue: Michigan has scored 30 points this year. Gimme the points. Michigan 30-6
MNW: I don't think UTEP scores, and I also don't know that Michigan is built for speed – so let's split that difference and say that the Miners are just a little more defensively solid than they were against Oklahoma, forcing a couple long drives and a running clock. Wolverines, 31-0.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers @ Indiana Hoosiers
3:00pm | Peacock | Indiana -44.5 | O/U: 60.5
IUinVA: Cignetti had to show mercy last week against FCS Howard, and I don’t think he liked it at all. This is a bad WKU team, and they are especially bad in the one area that IU wants to exploit (7.2 yds/rush allowed). Even though 44.5 points is a lot, Georgia beat WKU by 50 last week, and that will be Cignetti’s barometer. Of WKU’s 34 points on the season, 21 have been in garage time. Although IU opens B1G play on a short week next week, I could still see him running starters back out on defense in the 4th quarter if WKU gets near the goal line. I’ll take madman, Shang Tsung Cignetti to get his groove back and devour WKU’s soul, 63-3.
Thumpasaurus: Western Kentucky fared poorly against…who was it, Georgia? Last week. But that’s not that important. What is important is that they lost by 35 to Nevada in week 1.
HoustonBoiler: Death star gonna death star.
Buffkomodo: If they cover, I’ll be moderately surprised. Not because WKU is good or because Indiana won’t care though, mostly because I think Indiana just rests some players here and there and backdoor 40 point spread covers do happen.
Transient Buckeye: On the other hand, a 44.5-point spread here does not feel too big.
misdreavus79: meanwhile, this one isn’t big enough.
RockyMtnBlue: I know absolutely nothing about Western Kentucky and I have no intention of addressing that. I do know Cig is a cranky bastard, though. Hoosiers run it up. Indiana 52-3
MNW: Yeah, the 'Toppers giving up not just 70 to Georgia but 49 to Nevada (who is, I cannot emphasize this enough, dogshit) told you about everything you need to know here.
Perhaps there's the potential the WKU offense finally gets going – but it doesn't look like Tyson Helton has found his answer at QB yet (he pulled starting Rodney Tisdale against Georgia and has committed to a 2-quarterback system. Indiana stuffs the run and preys on the Hilltoppers' inefficient passers. Hoosiers, 66-10.
Michigan State Spartans @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
6:30pm | NBC | Notre Dame -29.5 | O/U: 52.5
Thumpasaurus: Pat Fitzgerald will not let them cover. He’ll run Cam Edwards into the line for no gain 30 times before he lets that happen. He’ll get a dumb luck turnover in enemy territory and turn it into a field goal. He’ll put Cam Fancher in to run the option so the time doesn’t stop. It doesn’t matter that Notre Dame is probably 35 points better than MSU, Padraig FitzClanaghan is having none of it.
IUinVA: Hard to see MSU winning this edition on a fake field goal. Like Thump said, these teams don’t run well, but that won’t stop them from trying. Fighting Irish win easily over the Fighting (however, less competently) Spartans.
HoustonBoiler: Notre Dame wins but I agree with Thump that Pat Fitzgerald will not let them cover. MSU covers.
Buffkomodo: MSU sucks but Patty Fitz is smart enough to have watched the Wisconsin game and successfully take the air out of the ball.
Transient Buckeye: Notre Dame’s going to win, but it feels like MSU ought to be able to get a cover here, even on the road.
misdreavus79: close for a half.
RockyMtnBlue: And here I thought I would be in a small minority, having faith in Sparty to cover this. Then I looked at the picks. I’ve been telling you people MSU ain’t that bad! Notre Dame 34-10
MNW: Thump nailed it. This is not a game Fitz will let get out of hand on him. Notre Dame, 27-14.
Colorado Buffaloes @ Northwestern Wildcats
6:30pm | FOX | Northwestern -3.5 | O/U: 48.5
Thumpasaurus: Would be really annoying for Nern to win this. Cats roll.
IUinVA: Colorado’s run defense was impressive against Georgia Tech, but JuJu Lewis was alarmingly woeful. Northwestern comes in fresh off their Week 2 bye (bizarre) to play their final football game at the Bunny Hutch. I think Northwestern wins, but I’m going to middle it.
HoustonBoiler: I think Northwestern wins a very, very close game. Colorado covers.
Buffkomodo: it helps me rationalize my overlooking of Northwestern if they lose. Also, Northwestern and Colorado is a weird matchup, no?
Transient Buckeye: I would love to pick Northwestern to win, but Colorado seems to have a horseshoe up their ass in tight games, and I think this is going to be a tight game. Buffs with the upset.
misdreavus79: comment
RockyMtnBlue: Ok, I’ll admit, this pick is coming from the heart, not the brain. I really REALLY want Northwestern to win (and I would prefer they win big). Northwestern 24-17
MNW: Goodbye to the Bunny Hutch – I'll miss your weird quirks and those lake views.
What concerns me about the Buffaloes is their many-headed backfield. Can Northwestern's linebackers stay disciplined, make their reads, and get downhill to stop the run? Forcing Julian Lewis to the air seems like the way to make it happen in this one.
Meanwhile, that Week 2 bye has me thrown on the 'Cats offense. Is everyone's favorite newspaper columnist for The Guardian going to have the time to set himself in the pocket and find Griffin Wilde? Can Drew Wagner get back on track? The amount of motion (including jet sweeps? what team is this???) and misdirection Northwestern used against South Dakota State was enjoyable – let's hope there's room to grow against Colorado.
Colorado is 1/3 on field goals this year. On what could be a rainy evening along the Lakefront, that could lead to some challenges. Picking with my heart and its little remaining capacity: 'Cats, 24-21.
Virginia Tech Hokies @ Maryland Terrapins
6:30pm | FS1 | Va Tech -3 | O/U: 53.5
IUinVA: National game of the week. I was wrong to doubt Maryland last week and have, subsequently, jumped to the other side of the pendulum. VT rushed for 2.1 yards/rush last week on 42 attempts with 2 lost fumbles against ODU. Gross. Maryland wins outright. Locks over Franks.
Thumpasaurus: I know it’s September Maryland but man, a win here would feel too good. A victory over an old ACC rival to go to 3-0, and that rival is none other than James Franklin? Nope. Maryland doesn’t get to have moments like this. You know I’m right.
HoustonBoiler: Checks calendar - Maryland wins outright.
Buffkomodo: James Franklin is better than Locks.
Transient Buckeye: James Franklin is a better coach than Mike Locksley. But it’s still September. Terps win outright.
misdreavus79: September!
RockyMtnBlue: I am a low-key believer in Maryland this year. PLUS it’s September. Maryland 27-21
MNW: James Franklin against September Maryland. Franklin's one of the five coaches to ever beat Locks in September. But hell, even though I couldn't name a single player on Maryland (is Taulia still there?), count me a believer. Terps, 31-28.
Purdue Boilermakers @ UCLA Bruins
10:30pm | BTN | UCLA -14 | O/U: 53.5
IUinVA: I want to be a contrarian, but I think UCLA may legitimately be a solid team. Chesney express keeps rolling.
Thumpasaurus: You might be surprised how good UCLA will end up being.
glass: I am more interested in MAC basketball previews (could it finally be Toledo’s year???) than I am in this football game. And you should be too. Boilermakers remain ass all the way down.
HoustonBoiler: During the regular season, Purdue has a history of traveling to the west coast and falling on their face. And after a tough loss last season at Minnesota, Purdue was a no-show the following week in the bunny hutch. I doubted UCLA in week 1 and was wrong. UCLA wins and easily covers. Prove me wrong Boilers!
Buffkomodo: Purdue plays with UCLA long enough to have their hearts ripped out in the 4th. As is tradition.
Transient Buckeye: I don’t like Purdue’s chances at the end of a long, cross-country trip. Bruins win and cover.
misdreavus79: close.
RockyMtnBlue: UCLA has looked decent. And cross country travel has been a thing the last couple years. UCLA 27-10
MNW: Purdue will learn from its adversity. Meanwhile, UCLA is decent but due for some regression, unless Chesney really is the second coming of Cig. UCLA, 35-28.
Too Cowardly To Play
Oregon (Portland State)
Illinois (Southern Illinois)
Iowa (Northern Iowa)
Nebraska (North Dakota)
Washington (Eastern Washington)
Buffkomodo: Good god we should have picked the Nebby and Washington games. Those would be interesting. NDSU because they’re actually good and almost always almost win these games and…well…did you watch Washington last week?
misdreavus79: they can’t lose to that PSU, right?
