HAT HAT HAT HAT HAT WEEK
Rejoice, for it is HAT Week
About Yesterday's Games
Spain dos, France mais non
Kind of...: puts on Nietzsche mask...in observing my excellent record of prognostication during this World Cup, you may, paraphrasing the author of Ecce Homo, ask yourself "Why is he so wise?" "Why is he so clever?" "Why does he make such great previews?" I answer thusly:
Look, for all the drama that a World Cup produces, there's a fair amount of predictability. Like the NCAA tournament, upsets in one phase tend to mean greater chalk in the next. So, some teams step on a rake in the group stage, which just means a bigger mismatch in the first knockout round. It was also foreseeable that expansion might exacerbate this trend. I got all 12 groups winners right, but almost anybody should've gotten 10 of 12 (unless you really hate the USMNT). To me, Colombia over Portugal was a no-brainer because Portugal was doubling down on Ronaldo despite the obvious weaknesses in 2022. And Switzerland over Canada was just a guess that Canada's appealing style would be something Switzerland could counter with patience. Even then, that group could easily have gone to Canada.
If you get the group winners right, then your knockout bracket isn't in shambles. So here's the secret of the knockout rounds: the big-time favorites don't lose. If they go out early, it's on penalties. And nothing is more fundamental to the omerta of soccer than there's no shame on losing in penalties. There's a lot of luck, shrug your shoulders, adopt your best French existentialist affect, and, well, that's life. So, yeah, pick the favorites and, if they go out early, it's likely because somebody Paraguayed them and they got unlucky with penalties.
Okay, but which favorites do you pick? Why were you so clear-eyed in nailing Spain over France? Well, the World Cup is just inferior competition to Champions League play because you have little preparation time and your tactics will be simpler (for the better if you tire of Arsenal's approach...for the worse if you love Bayern Munich bombing away). So, pick the team among roughly equal elites that seems committed to a coherent style.
That was obviously Spain. They flat out imposed their will on "let's just out-talent people for spurts" France. Frankly, I thought it would be more competitive, but France just wilted. They were flat-out bad yesterday.
HoustonBoiler: In yesterday's preview, I asked which side would impose their will on the other. Spain answered, loudly and clearly. They played to their strengths, skillfully controlling and advancing the ball, while also disrupting France's. Spain really showed that their team is greater than the sum of its parts. The difference was very apparent in the midfield play. For all of France's skill in the attacking end, their midfielders just couldn't set the table for the attackers due to the play of the Spanish midfielders. I'm not sure another team at this World Cup could have disrupted France's offense so effectively.
I also expected more from France. However, they obviously did not expect Spain's weapons of fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency.
Today's Game
England v Argentina
Atlanta, GA. 3:00 ET/2:00 GTZ.
Kind of...: Continuing the thoughts above, England has a much more established identity right now. They can score quickly both on counters that tear down the field and on those that are essentially a long entry pass. Now, Argentina has showed an ability to win without Messi scoring, which I wasn't sure would be the case. At the same nobody is playing better than Jude Bellingham right now. It sure feels like England's a notably better side and Argentina might put the CONMEBOL tactics to use to try to rough things up, get into England's head, and, failing all else, get to penalties and rely on a world class goalkeeper (though Pickford has been quite good for England, too). I don't know that England can look more convincing than Spain did yesterday, but I do like England, convincingly.
HoustonBoiler: Jude Bellingham is on a tear right now with two goals in each of England's previous two matches - Mexico and Norway. England has met their challenges thus far. England hasn't really controlled their recent matches, but they have played well and delivered with a few moments of brilliance. Argentina overall just hasn't impressed me thus far. They've had brilliant moments while also appearing pretty average for long stretches. In many matches they just didn't come out playing well, fell behind, and needed a furious rally to pull of the win. Hence, my FAFO comment in yesterday's review. Maybe I'm expecting too much from them, but they were the FIFA top ranked team coming into the World Cup. As Kind Of... noted, Argentina can score and win without Messi contributing too much, as demonstrated in their win over Switzerland in which Julian Alvarez scored on an amazing, game-winning goal in the 112th minute. While either team could win, I am leaning towards England at the moment.
MaximumSam: The Falklands War was marked by an amphibious assault led by, you guessed it, HARRY KANE.
HoustonBoiler: I remember the "Hand of God" goal that Diego Maradona scored to propel Argentina to a win in the World Cup knock rounds. BUT, I just was just reminded that it was a quarter-final match against England in 1986. None of the match referees saw Maradona use his left hand and there was no VAR back then, but the moment was captured on film (that would need to be developed):
More for the bad blood between these teams!
