World Cup Recaps and Previews, Friday June 26: Ecuador Upsets Germany!
Great leadoff game today between Norway and France. (this may have been accurate before Norway rested everyone)
About Yesterday's Games
Kind of...: In the interest of keeping this shorter, we're down to only 8 scenarios for how to populate the third place teams. Sweden, Ecuador, Bosnia (and friend), Paraguay, and Senegal are through (the latter with three points, so THAT question is answered). Uruguay is eliminated. Scotland needs a miracle. South Korea is also in rough shape. Iran is basically right on the cut line. Will refer back to this paragraph as we go.
France 4, Norway 1
Kind of...: Norway rested a lot of folks. France rested far fewer players AND has better depth. The soccer gods can be fickle, but nature was allowed to take its course here. France gets Sweden in R32, then the Germany/Paraguay winner. Norway gets the Ivory Coast, then the Brazil/Japan winner. Could be some R16 fun in both cases, though France looks fully activated and Germany does not.
HoustonBoiler: France looked good, especially with goals coming from players not named Kylian Mbappé. Can anyone slow down and/or out-score France? At this point, I don't think so.
Senegal 5, Iraq 0
Kind of...: I noted yesterday that Senegal was highly incentivized to score goals, and that the sports books were treating them as a favorite to advance despite having zero points. Well...Vegas always knows, right? Senegal's specific fate is still uncertain. They'll either play Belgium, the Group K winner, or the Group L winner. If it's Belgium, I think that's basically a tossup. And Senegal will have zero fear of the USMNT, either, if they meet in R16. Let's see if that's where they get placed, first.
HoustonBoiler: Yes, Senegal was incentivized to score goals and an Iraqi player being sent off for receiving a red card definitely helped.
Cape Verde Indomável (!!!) 0, Saudi Arabia 0
Kind of...: The comments yesterday already covered this. Yes, Cape Verde is through! They remain unbeaten!! And have to play Argentina next!!! They held Spain to a 0-0 draw. That will be their goal vs. Argentina too. I don't think they'll fulfill that goal, but it will be fun as hell to watch them try. Other than so many great players racking up multiple multiple-goal matches, this is the story of the tournament.
Houston Boiler: When I arrive in Houston on Thursday afternoon, I saw a number of people sporting Cabo Verde jerseys. Well, the blue sharks delivered another draw to remain unbeaten and finished second in their group. From here on out; however, there will be no draws. The question on my mind is can Cabo Verde win a match? Stay tuned.
Spain 1, Uruguay 0
Kind of...: Spain won the group, but Lamine still doesn't look great, Nico Williams (12 touches in the entire group stage) seems to have aggravated his injury and may miss the knockouts, and Yeremy Pino seems doubtful to play in the knockouts. Spain is likely to get Austria, but maybe Algeria, in R32, then the winner of 2K/2L, which should be a pretty good side (Colombia/Portugal/Croatia/Ghana/England). The co-favorites can't really be considered co-favorites right now.
Uruguay is out. They easily could have had 6 points (instead of 2), and probably should have had 4, heading into yesterday. But, they were toothless last night, and finished the match cynically and classlessly, so not many people are lamenting their bad luck.
HoustonBoiler: While I was watching this match, I did see Lamine Yamal have a few moments where his talent shown through. There were just not nearly enough of these and perhaps that's due to his youth. He'll be better in the next two, three, maybe even four World Cups. Plus, had the Uruguayan keeper gotten a little more of the ball, this one would have finished a nil - nil draw. It's a very fine line, but the difference between them moving on the round of 32 and them going home (while Cabo Verde moves on rather than go home).
Egypt 1, Iran 1
Kind of...: Egypt lost first place to Belgium on goal differential, but maintained second when a late offside disallowed an Iran goal. Egypt gets Australia in R32, which is eminently winnable. Argentina in R16 might be a different story, but that can be next week's problem.
Iran came very, very close to taking second in the group. As it is, their 3 points and 0 goal differential have them in pretty good shape. They're guaranteed no worse than 9 among the 12 third-place teams, so unless everything breaks against them today, they should get through. But, here's "everything breaks against them:" 1) Croatia draws with (or beats) Ghana, 2) Congo beats Uzbekistan, 3) Austria and Algeria draw. Totally plausible.
Belgium 5, New Zealand 1
Kind of...: Belgium dominated a slow, tired New Zealand in the second half and that was enough to get them through. I noted above that Senegal would be a tough out if that's who Belgium draws. If it's not them, it's Austria/Algeria, UNLESS Algerian wins that by multiple goals, which would open the door for South Korea. In other words, very likely to be a side of enough quality that Belgium will need to work for the win. They're good enough to make the quarters, but they're also quite susceptible.
Today's Matchups
Group L: Croatia (1-0-1) v Ghana (1-1-0)
Philadelphia, PA, 5:00 PM ET, 2:00 PM GTZ.
Kind of...: Croatia needs a point. A loss drops them below South Korea and means they're out if Congo wins, which they are heavily favored to do. A Croatia win gets them no worse than second (and Ghana would be safe in third). Winning the group is possible for each, but would require England to fall on their face vs. Panama.
Second place gets 1K; third place gets 2K. That's going to Colombia and Portugal, who play later. Not much incentive for gamesmanship, or even for having a clear preference between those two sides. Expect a cautious match.
Group L: Panama (0-0-2) v England (1-1-0)
East Rutherford, NJ, 5:00 PM ET, 2:00 PM GTZ.
Kind of...: England wins the group with a win (no, I don't care that Ghana could pass England in goal differential. Ghana has one goal, period, so far, they're not scoring the four, minimum, they need today for that to happen). If they lose, they're guaranteed no worse than second. The draw with Ghana wasn't fun, but this may be the second best side in the tournament, after considering Spain's health, and Argentina's non-Messi production (and Netherlands's general history).
England will get Congo if Congo wins today and clinches a spot. If not, then it's Senegal. (There's a tiny chance it's Algeria/Austria, but if that happens, a lot of weird shit went down.)
MaximumSam: The curse is lifted. Harry Kane with 8 goals.
HoustonBoiler: This is a match that England needs to win, as Kind Of... has already said. When I arrived at Newark Airport at about 12:30 pm this afternoon, I saw a number of England jersey wearing fans. My Uber driver passed MetLife Stadium on his way to my home and I saw the police, security, parking attendants gearing up for the match.
Group K: Colombia (2-0-0) v Portugal (1-1-0)
Miami, FL, 7:30 PM ET, 6:30 PM GTZ.
Kind of...: Winner takes the group. If there's no winner Colombia takes the group. Portugal is 6 goals ahead of Congo, so they likely won't fall to third. IF somehow that happens, they'd play, likely, England, which would be delicious. Much more likely is that Colombia and Portugal play Croatia and Ghana.
HoustonBoiler: How does Bosnia and Herzegovina compare to Colombia and Portugal or Croatia and Ghana? On a more serious note, how much does Cristiano Ronaldo have in the tank. If he plays a lot of minutes tonight, how will his legs be for the knockout round matches?
Group K: Congo DR (0-1-1) v Uzbekistan (0-0-2)
Atlanta, GA, 7:30 PM ET, 6:30 PM GTZ.
Kind of...: As noted, Congo is guaranteed passage with a win and guaranteed elimination with a loss or draw. Unless they gain 6 goals in differential with Portugal, they're playing England next.
HoustonBoiler: Time for Congo to ride or die.
Group J: Algeria (1-0-1) v Austria (1-0-1)
Kansas City, MO, 10:00 PM ET, 9:00 PM GTZ.
Kind of...: 44 years is a long time, and you've probably already heard about this today. If not, read up.
Austria is guaranteed second with a win or draw. Algeria is guaranteed out with a loss, but guaranteed through with a draw. Because second means Spain in R32, while third means Switzerland or Belgium, Algeria is totally fine with a draw. But, IF Austria loses 1-0, they're still certain to go through, and go through in third instead of second. Of course, if Austria goes down 1-0, and Algeria cares enough about 1982, a 2-0 Algerian win would likely eliminate Austria (we'd know for sure by kickoff). In theory, this could be a super petty match. In all likelihood, though, it's going to be really cautious.
This is what happens when you expand in a way that means third place teams advance. Of course, FIFA is not going to shrink the field, so don't be surprised if we're soon looking at a 64 team tournament with a 32 team knockout round...
HoustonBoiler: Sounds like there may be some intrigue.
A 64 team tournament would mean sixteen 4-team groups plus a lot more matches. More matches is more good though I'm not sure how much more I will be able to watch.
Group J: Jordan (0-0-2) v Argentina (2-0-0)
Arlington, TX, 10:00 PM ET, 9:00 PM GTZ.
Kind of...: It's been announced Messi is not starting, but a cameo off the bench seems possible, even likely. He's the sport's ambassador, so it makes sense that he'd make an appearance. And I suspect Jordan knows that FIFA would dissolve their national team if anybody breasted too heavily in Messi's direction. Either way, Cape Verde awaits!!!
HoustonBoiler: Well it would be an opportunity for Lionel Messi to enhance his golden boot chances with one or more goals.
