Atlantic Week Mailbag
You sent in questions via a message in a bottle and we actually responded!
About Yesterday's Games
Ivory Coast 2, Curacao 0
Kind of...: Ivory Coast is through. Hopefully you've enjoyed watching them as their R32 will be either France or, more likely, Norway.
Ecuador 2, Germany 1
MaximumSam: All hail Ecuador, who finally tried to score at times in this tournament. I also realized that their coach is a shampoo model.
Kind of...: I realize I've been a bit hard on Ecuador. The Curacao keeper was unreal, and the Ivory Coast match was compelling. Ecuador is definitely one of the 32 best sides in the event. Mexico is looking like the likeliest R32 opponent. Could end up better (Switzerland) or worse (England), though. Even a slim possibility it's Colombia, which could get chippy. They'll be a tough out.
Japan 1, Sweden 1
Kind of...: As things are breaking, Sweden probably would've been okay even with a 1-0 loss, but when the matched Japan's goal with one of their own, they clinched a knockout round spot. A lot of the work was done in blowing out Tunisia though, so they may be a bit overvalued. Especially given that it's very likely the R32 opponent will be the Group I winner. This is likely to be France, but a Norway/Sweden smackdown would be funnier.
Netherlands 3, Tunisia 1
Kind of...: Tunisia was awful. The Dutch scored twice early and then just avoided injuries. Netherlands/Morocco is probably the most dynamite R32 matchup. Both squads deserve better, but this is what happens when you slot positions rather than employ any power rankings. It's soccer, there's a lot that's outside your control.
Turkey 3, USA 2
MaximumSam: LOL who cares Turkey go back to Ottoman.
Kind of...: Happy to read any "no, it mattered, and the USMNT is now worse off because of the loss" takes. But you're wrong. Deflating to give up a late goal I guess, but 1) everybody is eligible to play vs. Bosnia (and friend), 2) Pochettino got a better sense of who he can, and cannot, count on, and 3) there's no chance of the players resting on their laurels.
Paraguay 0, Australia 0
Kind of...: Paraguay beat Turkey despite being a man down and facing a 2.17-.32 expected goal deficit. They added a whopping .24 expected goals last night, pushing them to 1.10 for the tournament. They're currently fourth among third place teams and likely, but no means guaranteed to advance. If they do, they'll almost certainly play Germany and will take notes on how fellow defense-minded CONMEBOL member Ecuador approached things.
Today's Matchups
Group I: Norway (2-0-0) v. France (2-0-0)
Foxborough, Massachusetts, 3:00 PM ET, 2:00 PM GTZ.
MaximumSam: Get ready for Haaland versus Mbappe. It appears the winner plays one of the Yahtzee third place teams, while the loser plays the Ivory Coast.
Kind of...: We're down to only 51 of 495 possible combinations of 3rd place teams! Follow along yourself if you want (thought this isn't probability weighted, but they are plenty of those, too, if you do a bit of looking). As noted above, quite likely the winner gets Sweden.
Group I: Senegal (0-0-2) v. Iraq (0-0-2)
Toronto Canada. 3:00 PM ET, 2 PM GTZ
Kind of...: I know we'll be paying more attention to France/Norway, but this is fun in its own way. Senegal has 0 points, but right now the first sports book I consulted has them likelier than not to qualify. Any win puts the no worse than -2 in goal differential with at least 4 goals scored (i.e., ahead of Scotland). Any two goal win puts them ahead of South Korea, too, which might be crucial. But a LOT will turn on groups G and H, so keep reading. (Also, hard to say who they'd draw in R32 at this point, but most likely winner for K or L.)
Group H: Cape Verde (0-2-0) v. Saudi Arabia (0-1-1)
Houston, Texas, 8:00 PM ET, 7 PM GTZ
Kind of...: A win is necessary, and almost certainly sufficient, for Saudi Arabia to advance. Even a 1-0 win that leaves them -3 should be enough given they'll have four points (i.e., vault ahead of South Korea, Scotland, and any thing Senegal/Iraq could do).
But let's be real, we're all more interested in Cape Verde. Well...a win means they clinch a top two finish and there's no drama. A draw is likely to see them through too, as they'd be level in goal differential, which is near impossible for any other team with 3 points, as 1 win, 2 losses is more common than 3 ties. (And if Spain beats Uruguay, a draw would see them finish second in the group!) Bottom line: if lovable Cape Verde doesn't make it through, they'll be kicking themselves. It's there for the taking.
If this group sends three teams, the third place side gets either Mexico (on shorter rest) or the Group G winner (a glorious mess...see below).
Group H: Uruguay (0-2-0) v. Spain (1-1-0)
Guadalajara, Mexico, 8:00 PM ET, 7 pm GTZ
Kind of...: Quite dicey for Uruguay. Currently second, but they HAVE TO think Cape Verde will win. So, they could hold second with a draw, but certainly can't expect that to be the case. But, just as with Cape Verde, a draw would keep them level in goal differential, which would be nearly a mortal lock to see them through. Spain probably clinches the group with a draw. BUT a draw plus a 4-0 (or 5-1, etc.) win by Cape Verde would leave Spain second, facing...Argentina in R32. So, let's hope Spain plays to win. If they do win, Uruguay is toast.
Lotta scoreboard watching upcoming, to be sure.
Group G: Egypt (1-1-0) v. Iran (0-2-0)
Seattle, Washington, 11 PM ET, 10 PM GTZ
Kind of...: If Egypt wins, they clinch the group. Even a draw would require a three goal Belgium win (or, maybe some wild 5-3 type of two goal win) for Egypt to lose the top spot. And if they lose, they're still almost certain to advance. Further disincentive for Egypt to press too hard: Group winner gets a third place side (South Korea if they make it). Runner-up gets Canada. Third place gets Switzerland. A LOT LESS variance with respect to group finish that any other group, I suspect. At least with respect to R32. And none of these squads should be worrying about R16 right now. The group winner will be the USMNT's likely opponent in R16 though, so probably cheer for whatever outcome is likely to have the weakest side win the group. Continuing that thought...
If Iran wins, they clinch second, and would only fail to win the group if Belgium win and has a bigger margin of victory tonight. This means there's a nonzero, though unlikely, chance that the USMNT and Iran could meet in R16. Great soccer narrative, but for purposes of, you now, actual life, let's not have that happen.
Group G: New Zealand (0-1-1) v. Belgium (0-2-0)
Vancouver, Canada, 11 PM ET, 10 PM GTZ
Kind of...: Belgium needs a multiple goal victory to win the group, but ANY victory gets them second. The second place path is Switzerland, then the winner of Australia and a third-place side. Don't expect Belgium to take a lot of risks. As noted above, advancing in second in this group is a pretty sweet proposition with the way things have broken.
That said, New Zealand is out with a loss or draw, and clinches second with a win. So, the Kiwis probably WILL be aggressive. (They've started quick in each of the group stage games.)
