Atlantic Week Mailbag
You sent in questions via a message in a bottle and we actually responded!
About Yesterday's Games
Bosnia-Herzegovina 3, Qatar 1
Kind of...: Aided by an own goal to up the lead to 2-0, Bosnia (and tag along friend Herzegovina) won comfortably despite the expected goals suggesting an even match. With 4 points, the Bosniacs are 99.997% likely to go through...and match up with the USMNT in R32. Really can't complain about that break, Yanks.
Switzerland 2, Canada 1
Kind of...: Switzerland also got up 2-0 despite pretty even play. The Swiss then parked the bus, saw Canada claw back a goal, but held on to win the group. Fear not for Canada, though. While, yes, they no longer get an R32 match in Vancouver (instead they're headed to Inglewood), they do get an entirely winnable match vs. South Africa (see below).
HoustonBoiler: The Swiss got it done while the Canucks did not. Both teams are through to the round of 32 though I'm sure Canada would prefer to be in Vancouver.
Morocco 4, Haiti 2
Kind of...: Given what Brazil did to Scotland, Morocco would've needed to win by at least 5 to win the group. So, let's just give props to Haiti for netting a couple of goals and leading 1-0 and 2-1. Morocco tied it at two during stoppage time at the end of the first half, though, and the second half was a rout. Morocco is likely to get the Netherlands in R32. Ouch. Tough break for a side that scored 7 points in group play. Life's not fair. And this part of life is presented by FIFA...
HoustonBoiler: Definite props to Haiti for showing up in a match where they could have easily checked out given there was nothing on the line for them.
Brazil 3, Scotland 0
Kind of...: We all thrilled to the Tartan Army, but, well, maybe don't so excited by a boring 1-0 win over Haiti? That was the only goal scored by Scotland in group play and frankly they side on the pitch really isn't worthy of continuing on. With what South Korea did, odds are really low that they will. Call it a Cuba Libre if you want, but rum and coke hangovers are terrible...hopefully the Tartan Army can fight through however they're feeling today in Miami and take a bow for the joy they brought.
HoustonBoiler: Scotland played hard and appeared to give it their all. Unfortunately, Brazil is a much better team and it showed. That said, Scotland would have helped themselves had they converted a couple of those opportunities.
South Africa 1, South Korea 0
Kind of...: Imagine in American football is punting wasn't a thing (somebody go resuscitate Ferentz...), and you could run as many offensive plays as you wanted as long as you didn't turn the ball over. Further imagine there's no OT. Now, imagine a team benched their explosive WR, ran 51 straight FB dives before fumbling and conceding a FG midway through the third. They then put said WR in the game, but still run it a lot, though mixing in some desperate, poorly designed deep passes.
That's what South Korea did last night, and it blew up in their face.
That said, they're only -1 in goal differential, which puts them ahead of Scotland. Seems like South Korea is looking at somewhere in the 7, 8, or 9 slot among third place teams. If you believe in karma and like non-cynical soccer, root for 9.
HoustonBoiler: Wooohooo!!! Bafana Bafana steals a win over South Korea and replaces them in second place. Truly an amazing result for South Africa and this is their first ever trip to the knock-out rounds in World Cup play.
Mexico 3, Czechia 0
Kind of...: A dominant win for Mexico capping a commanding run through their group. Mexico gets a third place side in R32 IN Mexico City. Win that, and they're playing in Mexico City again, likely against England. THAT would be must watch.
HoustonBoiler: Mexico dominated Group A and is rewarded with potentially two knockout rounds in Mexico City. It's good to be a host!
Today's Matchups
Group E: Curaçao (0-1-1) v Ivory Coast (1-0-1)
Philadelphia, PA. 4:00 PM ET, 3:00 PM GTZ.
Kind of...: Despite a -6 goal differential, Curacao is likely through with a win. Sure looks like four points, in any form, will do it. But Ivory Coast is the clearly better side. Second in this group gets whoever finishes second between France and Norway. Ivory Coast gave Germany all it could handle, but either would be a tall order.
HoustonBoiler: Curaçao will have their work cut out for them as Ivory Coast is the better team. That said, South Korea is better than South Africa and look what happened.
Group E: Ecuador (0-1-1) v Germany (2-0-0)
East Rutherford, New Jersey. 4:00 PM ET, 3:00 PM GTZ.
Kind of...: If Germany is completely disinterested, Ecuador could win and see themselves through as a four point-bearing third place team. However, to win, Ecuador would have to score, something they have yet to do. At this point, it bears repeating the Ecuador finished second in CONMEBOL qualifying post a 14-5 goal differential over 18 MATCHES. That's right 19 goals scored, COMBINED, in 18 matches. It's a cynical blight on the sport and any of you root-for-the-underdog/root-against-Europe types need to swallow your principles and cheer for Germany to send Ecuador packing.
Kirk Ferentz: You just need to appreciate the other parts of the game. The parts that aid in winning. Not everything has to be a bunch of firehops and nickly bobs. Gimme them Ecuadors!
HoustonBoiler: Punting Kirk, it's all about punting! And ... ummm ... parking the bus.
Group F: Japan (1-1-0) v Sweden (1-0-1)
Arlington, TX. 7:00 PM ET, 6:00 PM GTZ.
Kind of...: I don't think Japan is going to throw this match. However, second place in this group gets Brazil. Getting third (and Japan is +4 with 4 points, so they're 100% guaranteed to advance even if they lose by two goals) puts you up against a group winner, most likely to be (checks permutation wheel)...France. Or Germany. Okay, nevermind. And, given the 5 goal explosion against Tunisia, Sweden would be in excellent position to advance if they only lose 1-0, so don't be surprised is Sweden parks the plus and Japan is fine with that.
Group F: Tunisia (0-0-2) v Netherlands (1-1-0)
Kansas City, MO. 7:00 PM ET, 6:00 PM GTZ.
Kind of...: Tunisia has collapsed. Netherlands wants to win the group and avoid Brazil (I would assume...but Morocco is not picnic, either). This one shouldn't be complicated.
HoustonBoiler: Not good choices, i.e., Brazil or Morocco, for the Dutch. That said, they probably want to win the group.
Group D: Paraguay (1-0-1) v Australia (1-0-1)
Santa Clara, CA. 10:00 PM ET, 9:00 PM GTZ.
Kind of...: I know this is the same time as the USMNT, but keep an eye on it. Australia is though with a draw, but Paraguay would also be in excellent shape with 4 points and a -2 goal differential. However...third place in the group almost certainly means France/Norway or Germany in R32, while second place means whoever finishes second among Egypt, Iran, Belgium, and New Zealand. That's a big difference on paper! Paraguay might be motivated to try for the win. And, frankly, they're probably the better side than Australia. But a 1-0 loss would put Paraguay in a tough spot, as in, likely one slot ahead of Scotland, whose odds are quite long. Really interesting scenarios here.
HoustonBoiler: While both teams are through with a win, third place means a match against France/Norway or Germany, which, as Kind Of... said, is something to be avoided. Currently Australia is ahead on goal differential so Paraguay must win to avoid a third place finish.
Group D: Turkiye (0-1-1) v USA (2-0-0)
Inglewood, CA. 10:00 PM ET, 9:00 PM GTZ.
Kind of...: Sure sounds like Pochettino is going to be cautious and not risk anybody getting a second yellow. I do think Pulisic will get some run if he's close to 100%. But, yeah, the match is meaningless, and the US is pretty much locked into playing Bosnia and Herzegovina. What Pochettino thinks will maintain freshness with minimizing rust is what he's going to do.
Personally, I want to see Reyna and Pulisic on the pitch for at least 20 minutes together. Assume Bosnia and Herzegovina come out in a shell and it's 0-0 at the second half hydration break. With the knockout round featuring 30 minutes of extra time to settle draws, that where the US depth can really be decisive in R32, or even R16. A fit, engaged Reyna is a hell of a card to be able to play. Don't need to play to win tonight, but do need to play to maximize knockout round chances. And that's what I told Mauricio when he called me for my input...
HoustonBoiler: I would definitely feel the US should rest their frontline players, as this is a meaningless match. I also definitely agree with Kind Of... regarding seeing more play from Reyna though I might save Pulisic for the knockout round. No sense potentially aggravating a healed/nearly healed injury in a meaningless match.
