The Official, Scientific, Totally Not Arbitrary Top 25 Big Ten Rivalries

Alright, earlier this week I posted the abbreviated version of The Athletic’s big Top 100 college football rivalries, but listed only the Big Ten-specific games. I had some thoughts, as did all of you! The Athletic did a fine job, but they overrated certain high-profile games and underrated some of the true hatefests. We can fix it. We can do it better.

So, for you, dear reader, I made a true methodology with numbers and ratios and shit like that (mostly). We put some rigor into this investigation and made an incredibly convoluted spreadsheet. Could I have asked ChatGPT to do this for me and have saved hours of my life? 100%, probably should have! But I trust my mistakes and poor math skills more than I trust ChatGPT’s hallucinations. God forbid if it had included something bizarre like Illinutgers! So if things are wrong, misspelled, stupid, or poorly explained, that's on me. With that, let’s start narrowing down the games.

There are 18 teams in the conference. All 18 teams have played every other team at least once (except for Rutgers-Oregon, which will meet for the first time this October). That makes for 153 distinct dyads to investigate. We’re going to be winnowing this down a few different ways. 

The Century Club, or Familiarity Breeds Contempt:

The 11 dyads that have played each other at least 100 times are auto-included to the final top 25 list. These teams have been going at it for at least a century. In virtually all circumstances, these are the classics, tentpole matchups or Rivalry Week games. While some of these Just Matter More than the others, I can’t find a reason to remove any of these from the final ranking.

1. Minnesota-Wisconsin: 134 games
2. Purdue-Indiana: 126 games
3. Ohio State-Michigan: 120 games
4. Iowa-Minnesota: 118 games
5. Illinois-Northwestern: 118 games
6. Washington-Oregon: 117 games
7. Michigan State-Michigan: 117 games
8. Minnesota-Michigan: 106 games
9. Illinois-Ohio State: 102 games
10. Northwestern-Wisconsin:106 games
11. Purdue-Illinois: 100 games (welcome to the party, Cannon!)
    

The Thirty-Rack, or Ain’t Played Nobody, Pawl:

So we’ve dealt with 11 of the 153 different dyads. 142 more matchups to sift through. This time, we’re removing all matchups that have been played less than 30 times. Why 30? I don’t know. I’m 34. If the game hasn’t been played for nearly as many years as I’ve been alive, I don’t think it counts as a classic in this venerable league of ours. (Yes, it’s arbitrary, but it also allows for the inclusion of several Penn State matchups, as the Nits joined the conference in 1990.) Taking out all matchups without 30 or more games played removes 96 of the dyads, leaving us with 46 matchups to investigate. That's much more manageable!

Vintage Hardware, or Hawk Tuah:

Alright, have you hit the parameter above and do have a trophy that’s been in existence since before 1960? Congrats and welcome to the group, Indiana-Michigan State and the Brass Spittoon! And USC-UCLA’s Victory Bell! That moves us up to 13 of the Top 25.

A Lopsided Series, or I Don’t Think About You:

Now we need to address another essential value of a proper rivalry: parity, or at least something that doesn’t resemble the Harlem Globetrotters and the Washington Generals. For our arbitrary metric, a series split needs to be at least 70/30 or better. If a team is winning 4 out of 5 games across the full length of the rivalry, that isn’t a real rivalry. Any series matchup in which some team is winning 70%+ of the games is out. That cuts 15 more dyads from the metric, leaving us with 29 to debate. 

Newer Hardware, or Check Out This Cool Laser!:

Alright, now we can include classic rivalry games that fit all the above parameters that have added silly, awesome, or just stupid trophies since 1980. 

1. Iowa-Wisconsin’s Heartland Trophy
2. Nebraska and Minnesota’s $5 Bits of Broken Chair
3. Iowa and Nebraska’s Heroes Trophy
4. MSU and PSU’s Land Grant Trophy (pew pew lasers)

That takes us up to 17 rivalries in the finals with 25 left to debate. 

Recency Bias, or What Have You Done For Me Lately?:

We’re using the same 70/30 split as above, but shifting the data set to only those games that have been played since 2000. Your rivalry may be a storied tradition, but has it been competitive over the last 25 years? Any matchup in which a team has won more than 70% of the games played in this century is out. Shockingly, this included Ohio State-Penn State (!?!), plus a lot of rockfests involving Indiana, Wisconsin, and Illinois. That cuts our list down to 15 remaining duos with 8 slots to fill. Half of these need to go.

1. Penn State-Iowa
2. Michigan State-Purdue
3. Michigan State-Illinois
4. MSU-Wisconsin
5. MSU-Minnesota
6. MSU-Iowa
7. Indiana-Illinois
8. Purdue-Ohio State
9. Minnesota Purdue
10. Iowa-Purdue
11. Illinois-Minnesota
12. Northwester-Minnesota
13. Northwestern-Iowa
14. Washington-USC
15. Oregon-USC

Vibe Check, or I Know it When I See It:

I’m chucking the following from the final list: MSU-Purdue, MSU-Illinois, MSU-Minnesota, MSU-Iowa, Iowa-Purdue, Minnesota-Purdue, and Illinois-Minnesota. Sorry, MSU, but if you feel differently about any of these B1G West games, make your concerns known in the comments. 

Alright! That was fun and took too much of my time. We’ve got a top 25! And I will loudly announce this here before someone yells at me:

THIS IS IN NO PARTICULAR ORDER I WILL DO A COMPLETE AND THOROUGH RANKING NEXT WEEK OR SOMETHING.  

Rivalry List:

1. Ohio State-Michigan
2. Minnesota-Wisconsin
3. Michigan State-Michigan
4. Purdue-Indiana
5. Iowa-Minnesota
6. Washington-Oregon
7. Minnesota-Michigan
8. Illinois-Northwestern
9. Illinois-Ohio State
10. Northwestern-Wisconsin
11. Purdue-Illinois
12. Indiana-Michigan State
13. UCLA-USC
14. Iowa-Wisconsin
15. Nebraska-Minnesota
16. Iowa-Nebraska
17. Michigan State-Penn State
18. Penn State-Iowa
19. Michigan State-Wisconsin
20. Indiana-Illinois
21. Purdue-Ohio State
22. Northwestern-Minnesota
23. Northwestern-Iowa
24. Washington-USC
25. Oregon-USC