National Champion Contenders - OTR Writers Draft, Round 3 and Absurd Longshots
Back by popular demand! (?)
And we're back with round 3 and a longshot pick! Blame AlmaOtter for the delay in the delay in publishing this one. Not a trustworthy mustelid, that one. If you missed rounds 1 and 2, hit the links below!
BoilerUp89
BoilerUp89
Pick 9 (AlmaOtter): Vanderbilt Commodores
I'm going back to the well here, at least with my rationale. Vandy is in the Peach Basket and therefore I'm happy to pick them as one of the few teams that have a legitimate shot. Vandy's 13th in adjusted offense and 20th in defense, which falls squarely in the Basket. In addition, they've been tested by the vaunted SEC schedule, where things just matter more. But for a mid-January three game losing streak, they've been nearly perfect. Except for their homecourt, which I personally despise purely for stylistic reasons.
Pick 10 (MaximumSam): Iowa State Cyclones
I think I ended up with ISU because I couldn't count. They had a two game blip against Kansas and Cincinnati, but otherwise have stuffed nearly everyone into a locker, including Purdue. I could do worse!
Pick 11 (BoilerUp89): Kansas Jayhawks
BoilerUp89: I'm on record saying only 8 teams are real contenders at this point in the season. Since MaximumSam somehow got three of them while AlmaOtter managed to only grab 1, I'm left taking a team I don't think can actually win. I've got my pick of Big 12 teams that aren't quite good enough but have a superstar that could theoretically pull them to a title like Carmelo Anthony did with Syracuse. I picked Kansas and Peterson over Tech/Toppin and BYU/Dybantsa. Peterson appears to be the best of the three, Kansas also has Bill Self, and we've seen Kansas healthy the least. The ceiling appears highest with them.
Pick 12 (Kind of...): Gonzaga Bulldogs
Sorry, B1G people and, especially, Husker fans. But do you really want me jinxing things? I talked up Gonzaga right before they got beat down by Michigan. Whoops!!! But they haven't lost since. [Obviously been a while since this was drafted.] And, in what I take to be a good sign, they have NOT been a remorseless killing machine. They had to play around an injury to Ike. And now Huff is out. If his recovery is the full eight weeks, then this is a dicier pick. But if he's back after 4-6 weeks away (it's been two weeks already), he should be able to shake the rust off. Do I think they'll make the Final Four, to say nothing of winning it all? No. But I would've taken them (or Iowa State) at 9, so I feel like I'm getting good value here.
NOTE: Obviously Gonzaga HAS now lost since the Michigan game. I'm not doubling down, but I'm not really deterred either. Like I noted above, Nebraska is the right pick here, but I'm not messing with that juju. For Gonzaga it's simple. IF they're healthy when the tournament starts, they're a threat. Huff and Ike are good enough inside. And I think Few is edging closer to trusting a couple of his younger players. Plus, I've got Houston and Duke. I'm fine with how this has played out overall.
Longshot (Kind of...): Clemson Tigers
The definition of "longshot" was a bit fuzzy, but basically the team had to be lower than 20th either in a voters poll, KenPom, or Torvik. I probably should've taken BYU but don't check Torvik enough (the Cougars are 15 in KP). Still, I'm good with Clemson. Close losses to BYU, Alabama, and NC State (and a head scratching loss to Georgetown back in mid-November). They struggle to score, but they really defend and focus on shutting off the three ball. Plus, they slow teams down, which typically comes in handy in March.
Longshot (BU89): BYU Cougars
BoilerUp89: I think I technically picked BYU in the draft. They technically qualified as a "longshot" based on Torvik ratings, but a) I've already explained the logic here with the Kansas pick and b) I'd rather talk about St. Louis who I also considered here. The Billikens have a very good coach in Josh Schertz. They are 22-1. Most importantly, the Billikens do something better than everyone else. They are elite at making shots and causing opponents to miss shots. St. Louis is #2 in effective FG%. They have the 2nd best (in the country) 3 point shooting % and 10th best 2 point shooting %. On defense they have held opponents to the lowest effective field goal percentage. Their opponents are shooting 28.0% from three (4th lowest) and 43.7% from two (3rd lowest). To top it all off St. Louis secures defensive rebounds and gets out and run. There are valid reasons to not trust St. Louis (they may not have played a game against tournament quality competition), but they do a lot of very important things for winning basketball games very well.
Longshot (MaximumSam): St. John's Red Storm
Sex Condo Forever. With St. John's I have three of my four preseason picks for the Final Four. Maybe if the Cyclones beat Houston tonight, Kind of... will trade Houston back to me. In any event, no one wants to face PitinoBall with two days to prepare in the tourney. All hail a good Italian restaurant and whatever goes on there.
AlmaOtter: They don't call him Sixty Seconds or Less Rick for nothing.
Longshot (AlmaOtter): North Carolina State Wolfpack
Ok, I don't really know what I was thinking with this pick. DJ Burns ain't rumbling through that door anytime soon. But let's make the case! They shoot the piss out of the 3 ball. They don't turn the ball over often. They're outside of the Peach Basket, but they at least are close to meeting the O15 criteria with an offense at 21st in the country. And they play fast tempo. Get hot, nail a shitload of threes, and that's enough to be a potential outside shot. Survive and advance, Wolfpack.
