MNW: Well, well, well. Look at all you people, sucking at predictions.
It's Halloween weekend. That means, in my world, pumpkin seeds and candy.
That's pretty much it – other than, from my birthright as a Minnesotan, mentioning the Blizzard of '91 (I was 1 and a Dalmatian and/or a cow, depending on how you view my mom's sewing/costuming skills, but that's beside the point).
Halloween in my suburb of St. Paul was generic – I lived in subdivisions that had well-contained trick-or-treating boundaries:
- When we lived in the Airport Vista subdivision, we trick-or-treated the three streets (two "C" and one "D") between County Road and Namesake Park. There was the stop at the Andersons, where Mara always had about 48 yard decorations, half of which were motion-sensored and all of which were baffling because she was, like 70 at the time and how fucking long did it take her to put all those out? And then there was the Taylors next door, who were some baffling kind of Baptist or Jehovah's Witness or something and turned all their lights off, hid in the basement, and prayed for our souls. Three of their six kids moved away and never spoke to the parents again. No idea why.
- Moving, though, to Concealed Glen was our "Movin' on Up" moment – now that we were in the treeless subvision (the irony is not lost on me) with the MJ Johnson-built homes (they went bankrupt about a year after the subdivision was finished), there was money. Seventy homes in the neighborhood, all upwards of $200K in 1999, meant a bonanza of candy. A couple king-size bars (those were the kid-less showoffs), heaping helpings at every stop, and a disdain for the outsiders who came to trick-or-treat our neighborhood because they knew about those previous benefits.
As I got to my teenage years, I fell in with a crowd based more out in Wealthy Vale, meaning we did our late-stage trick-or-treating at the rural, 1.5-2.5-acre homes that gave out full-ass candy bars because no one ever came. Just 5-7 of us riding in the back of a pickup (after 2006: mine), with no idea why we were still doing it except the Hudsons had Reese's Cups.
Then home, where you knew Mom kept the bowls of roasted pumpkin seeds out – so long as we had helped carve pumpkins. Do the work, get the reward.
About Last Week
Thoughts
- Holy mediocrity batman! 14/15 "writers" go 3-2 or 2-3. (everybody tied the travesty that was Indiana/Michigan)
- glassjawed continues to lead this merry band of incompetents as one of only two above .500 on the year.
- AlmaOtter storms into the lead straight up, his .772 leading RUready's and glassjawed's .766. (those are not good straight-up records historically, btw)
Picks
Saturday, October 31
(25) Wisconsin Badgers @ Iowa Hawkeyes
11am | FOX | Iowa -3.5 | O/U: 36.5
ATS: Wisconsin 9-5 | Straight Up: Iowa 11-3
Transient Buckeye: Oh, goodie. The Big Ten Westiest of matchups feels like it’s going to be extra-special Big Ten West-y this year. This game should come with a parental warning. Iowa looked like ten different kinds of shit last weekend, and Wisconsin flattened USC. So of course the Hawkeyes are going to win and cover.
[The Big Ten Westiest of matchups happened last week. ~misdreavus79]
IUinVA: This is going to be a disgusting rock fight, just the way Iowa likes it. Iowa 9, Wisconsin 6.
Thumpasaurus: Wisconsin fans are still bitching about their team, and that appears to make them stronger. I’ve got the Badgers winning.
Buffkomodo: I don’t feel like I have many options other than to split this and hope for the best. The best being Wisconsin losing I guess because that helps Indiana the most maybe?
misdreavus79: Why yes, I will overreact to Wisconsin beating USC and Iowa losing to Minnesota! Wisconsin 14, Iowa 7
RockyMtnBlue: This rivalry is firmly in WTF knows space. So gimme the home team. Iowa 21-17
MNW: I'm wondering if this game hasn't just approached meme stock – we're middling it because "lol, iowa-wisconsin," and nothing really matters anyway.
I'll be honest: I middled and under'd it out of sheer confusion. Colton Joseph is a dogshit quarterback, and I know dogshit quarterbacks, because Iowa has two of them. Kamari Moulton, the Iowa running back whose name I just learned, is apparently dead for the year. I think the wisconsin is that Abu Sama kid who was good at Iowa State, but I'm not sure about that and I write about this dumbshit conference on the regular, meaning I should know the badger running back no matter how much I hate him, and fuck Luke Fickell for taking that away from us.
So perhaps it's less "sheer confusion" and more "utter contempt."
This one's in Kinnick? GOOD ENOUGH. Iowa, 19-16.
Illinois Fighting Illini @ Maryland Terrapins
11am | FS1 | Illinois -2.5 | O/U: 54.5
ATS: Illinois 11-3 | Straight Up: Illinois 11-3
Transient Buckeye: I don’t even…. Illinois looked surprisingly good in dumping Oregon last weekend. How will they look against a Maryland squad now coached by (checks notes) Aazaar Abdul-Rahim? Wow. That’s got to set a record for the most “A’s” in a coach’s name in conference history, right? Unfortunately for the Terps, his name also contains on “L”, which will match the number they’ll pick up on Saturday. Illini win and cover. [I do not feel remotely confident about this pick.]
IUinVA: This line feels way off, which means that Illinois is probably going to lose. I’ll be a sucker and pick them anyway.
Thumpasaurus: We’ve got a couple things working against us here. First and foremost is the Dead Coach Bounce, possibly amplified by a Maryland bye. This is their first game since the firing of Mike Locksley, and even were it not Halloween that tends to cause spooky outcomes. The second thing we have working against us is that we just had a big emotional win that seemed to save the possibility of a bowl this season. That often leads to a letdown. I know this isn’t basketball where we always lose to them, but there’s a few factors that make me really nervous about this one.
Buffkomodo: I think Illinois wins but the dead coach bounce is on watch. Maybe Maryland isn’t without talent but you can’t change the entire scheme in a week.
misdreavus79: I have to assume the 2.5 line is vegas banking in the dead cat bounce. Illinois 34, Maryland 20
RockyMtnBlue: Ok. I know Illinois isn’t having an amazing year, and I know dead cat bounces are a thing, but this Maryland team is fucking awful. Illinois 24-21
MNW: Do dead turtles bounce?
Probably, if you drop them from high enough.
Like the third tier of Byrd Stadium...
Burma-Shave Illini, 28-17.
Michigan Wolverines @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights
11:30am | BTN | Michigan -14 | O/U: 46.5
ATS: Tied 7-7 | Straight Up: Michigan 13-1
Transient Buckeye: This pick, on the other hand, I feel quite confident about. Can Rutgers spring the upset in Piscataway? Of course not. But do I think Michigan can cover a 14-point spread? Also of course not.
IUinVA: Rutgers is always good for a get-right game. Michigan explodes with points. Michigan 23, Rutgers 0.
Thumpasaurus: Unfortunately, Michigan can probably take away KJ Duff, especially if Lonergan doesn’t play. You saw what resgurt looked like when Duff isn’t a factor last week. Duff must have strong rugrets about not leaving in the portal.
Buffkomodo: Michigan with a Rutgers cover because KJ Duff will get loose for one score and Michigan can kick 3 FG vs Rutger.
misdreavus79: In what world, no seriously. Michigan 21, Rutgers 20
RockyMtnBlue: Y’all’re still underestimating the dysfunction of this Michigan program. Rutgers 17-9
MNW: KYYYYYYYYYRIIIIIIIEEEEEEEEEEEEE
GOD IT'S SO GOOD.
(I don't care about this game. I'd take a push if it got me anything special in this dumb competition. As it does not, let's say Michigan, 28-7, all by dint of just running the ball straight through Rutgers in Greg Schiano's final action.)
Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Indiana Hoosiers
2:30pm| CBS | Indiana -20.5 | O/U: 42.5
ATS: Minnesota 12-2 | Straight Up: Indiana 13-1
Transient Buckeye: Why is there a 20-point spread in this game? I’m not sure either team is going to get to 20 points. Hoosiers win, but Gophers cover.
IUinVA: Cignetti’s tagline this season has been “before you win the game, you have to not lose the game.” He wants to be conservative and just win and doesn’t care about opening up the offense. It doesn’t help when he’s sticking with a QB with a hurt throwing appendage. This game will be ugly. Indiana 24, Minnesota 6.
Thumpasaurus: Minnesota is in the rare class of “Big Ten team whose opening day QB is still starting and the fans are happy about that.” Indiana is not in that class. Is that enough for me to pick against the Hoosiers? No. Despite the Washed Cig effect, Indiana wins at home but it’s not quite the romp you’d expect from Prime Cig. That guy’s long gone though.
Buffkomodo: Indiana wins an ugly game and goes frowning into the bye week with a Minnesota cover in this. I’d also bet the under.
misdreavus79: I wanted to pick Minnesota but they just beat Iowa so by rule they have to lose. Indiana 20, Minnesota 10
RockyMtnBlue: Indiana wins, but I’ll believe they’re their old dominant selves when I see it. Indiana 24-17
MNW: MY BODY BURNS A GEM-LIKE FLAAAAAAME Indiana, 21-12.
(20) Northwestern Wildcats @ Oregon Ducks
2:30pm| Peacock | Oregon -3.5 | O/U: 47.5
ATS: Northwestern 11-3 | Straight Up: Northwestern 10-4
Transient Buckeye: I’ve been picking too many favorites, so that has to stop somewhere. There will be no Moore Raiolas of hope for the Ducks at QB. Wildcats take their show on the road to Eugene and get the win outright.
IUinVA: A few of us were on this early, but the ‘Cats are for real. Northwestern wins and the nation finally has to start talking about Northwestern as a CFP contender, Chip Kelly as a Broyles award candidate, and Aiden Chiles as a Heisman finalist.
Thumpasaurus: Nern is 1-0 against Teams That Just Lost To Illinois. I expect that trend to continue.
Buffkomodo: How do you look at what the cats are doing and how Oregon looks and pick against Northwestern? Cats win by two scores.
misdreavus79: If Northwestern wins they have to fire Lanning. That’s the rule. Northwestern 33, Oregon 10
RockyMtnBlue: I really don’t know about this one. I think Northwestern is the better team, but Oregon still has gobs of talent and they’re at home. Give me Oregon to win this one, but honestly that feels like an upset in my mind. Oregon 24-20
MNW: Here's where I'm at (and please, stay with me): normally, any other season, I take Northwestern to lose this game. Duh.
That means that in any anomalous season, I take ranked Northwestern to win this game, and ranked Northwestern responds by losing to a team I respect but don't enjoy, like Chicago State basketball, or a team I enjoy but don't respect, like Purdue football. (That's just a for-instance. Who's to say where I got the ideas.)
I neither enjoy nor respect Dylan Raiola, quarterback.
That means one of those things:
- I should take Oregon to win by 50, or
- I should take Northwestern to suffocate the Ducks with a pillow, much as the 'Cats did to Rutgers.
I cannot believe – and I want y'all to know, I literally cannot believe – that the right thing to do, here, feels like the latter.
The thing I can see being a problem is Northwestern's inability to get off the field on third down or to allow sustained drives. The Ducks are not a good third-down team (35.4%, 107th in the country), but Northwestern's also not a great third-down defense team (37.7%, 68th) and allowing a high percentage of third-and-long conversions. So far Northwestern's covered that up by being elite in the red zone – 8th in the country, allowing TDs on just 69.6% of drives despite allow the T-21st-most red zone drives in the country.
This is going to be a deeply dumb game, and I'm mad at myself for caring and moreso for doing what comes next. 'Cats, 24-21.
Nevada Wolf Pack @ (7) UCLA Bruins
3:15pm| BTN | UCLA -22.5 | O/U: 44.5
ATS: UCLA 10-4 | Straight Up: All Bruins
Transient Buckeye: This is not how you do Chickenshit Saturday, UCLA. You’re supposed to schedule this one in late November, the weekend before you play Southern Cal. Bruins win and cover.
IUinVA: Savvy scheduling by UCLA with a non-B1G opponent in late October. Wayne Knight will feel like a new man (apologies) after playing Nevada. I’ll predict 300+ rushing yards for the Bruins and a feel-good, blowout win.
Thumpasaurus: Thrashing Nevada will not get your QB’s back. But it will help me out in fantasy football if the Wayne Knight finds the end zone a bunch.
Buffkomodo: Boooooo mid season buy game.
misdreavus79: Wouldn’t it be hilarious? UCLA 54, Nevada 0
RockyMtnBlue: Shame, UCLA. SHAME. UCLA 35-14
MNW: Nevada is dogshit. Wins over Western Kentucky, UTEP, and San Jose State. A home loss to FCS Montana State (mediocre by their standards!), a home loss to Air Force (silly), a completely inept passing attack.
UCLA can (and should) pin its ears back, name its score, and run it up so much that we start to wonder "should they really be ranked something like 5th in the country?" (No, but just go with it! Look how happy they are!) Bruins, 42-8.
Purdue Boilermakers @ Penn State Nittany Lions
3:15pm| BTN | PSU -7.5 | O/U: 54.5
ATS: Purdue 11-3 | Straight Up: PSU 11-3
Transient Buckeye: We’ve just got a boatload of scintillating matchups this week, don’t we? Do I think the Nittany Lions notch their first Big Ten win of the season? Yes, I do. Do I think they get the cover? No way.
IUinVA: I think Penn State finds a way to win, but not by this many points.
Thumpasaurus: The evidence suggests that Penn State is bad. Let’s pick as though Penn State is bad.
glass: Let's take a journey through the wayback machine and travel to a time when I didn’t hate football. October 9, 2004: Purdue polishes off Penn State 20-13 in Happy Valley to extend their winning streak vs the Nits to an impressive 2 games. The Boilers haven’t beaten them in 11 tries since. Losing by an average score of 34 - 14. It’s not quite wisconsin levels of certain doom, but it’s damned close. Lions by 3 scores.
Buffkomodo: I’d expect Penn State to cover and roll but I also recall Purdue beating the breaks off Minnesota so I don’t have any idea which way is up.
misdreavus79: Koby Howard is practicing. My personal nightmare might soon be over.
RockyMtnBlue: Ok so Penn State at home is always an unpleasant thing, but dammit, they suck this year. Boilers continue the weird East/West switcheroo of 2026. Purdue 24-21
MNW: Huh. A middle, MNW? Really? Penn State, 31-26.
(2) Ohio State Buckeyes @ USC Trojans
6:30pm| NBC | OSU -6.5 | O/U: 51.5
ATS: OSU 9-5 | Straight Up: OSU 13-1
Transient Buckeye: Will Ohio State have a functioning quarterback? If the answer is “yes,” I’d pick OSU, but a) I have no idea whether they do or not, and b) I called this as a loss for OSU in the offseason, so I’m sticking with that call. Trojans pull the upset, and I will be deploying a lengthy string of vocabulary builders at about 11:15 pm on Saturday night.
IUinVA: Lincoln Riley’s last stand at Southern Cal. They are going to bring everything they have in this game. The Buckeyes have serious QB concerns, but there is such a stark coaching mismatch here. I think the Trojans do almost enough to win, but the professional organization from Columbus steals it at the end.
Thumpasaurus: Were Julian Sayin healthy this would be two touchdowns easily. As it is however Vegas is underestimating the extent to which Lincoln Riley USC is soft. They’ve had plenty of data showing this but refuse to accept it. Ohio State will be able to run the ball at will against these guys, and if they load up that means they’re not triple-covering Smith. That means whoever’s taking snaps for OSU will have an easy assignment. Buckeyes roll.
Buffkomodo: OSU - Trustworthy. USC - Untrustworthy. Choose trustworthy.
misdreavus79: I can’t pick USC because of course, but I don’t know man, Ohio State turtled up right quick after Sayin went down. Ohio State 29, USC 26
RockyMtnBlue: OSU is winning the natty. Ohio State 34-14
MNW: USC is baby-shit-soft. Print it in whatever paper you want. OSU could put the sousas dotting the umlauts on "ubermensch" at QB and scatback, respectively, and they'd probably impress. Buckeyes, 31-21.
Washington Huskies @ Nebraska Cornhuskers
7pm| BTN | Nebraska -7.5 | O/U: 49.5
ATS: Washington 9-5 | Straight Up: Nebraska 12-2
Transient Buckeye: Who feels more likely to utterly collapse in this game? The obvious answer, to anyone who’s been around for the last decade, is Nebraska. But I picked the Huskers to get bowl-eligible in the offseason, and I said this game was the key to them getting there. So I’m sticking with the original projection, even though I know it’s dumb. Huskers win, but the Huskies get the cover.
IUinVA: Nebraska grinds a much-needed win, but I think it’s close. Washington has looked much better with a QB that actually wants to play for them.
Thumpasaurus: Road Washington beat a middling team but I think Nebraska is better than Purdue and probably good enough to pull this off comfortably. After seeing what happened this week though I’m not sure how much better Oregon really is than Washington at this juncture. Nebraska white knuckles this one.
Buffkomodo: Nebraska wins because Washingmachine is broken.
misdreavus79: If you couldn’t beat Oregon you’re damn sure not beating Washington! Washington 20, Nebraska 17
RockyMtnBlue: I continue to believe Nebraska is good, and that pains me no end. Nebraska 31-20
MNW: I'm tired. TJ Latheef runs for four touchdowns. Huskers, 24-20.
Too Cowardly To Play
Michigan State
Transient Buckeye: I mean, if you were on MSU’s roster, and you saw what this season has done to seemingly three-quarters of your teammates, would YOU want to play?
Thumpasaurus: Can I interest you in a gently used Katin Houser that totally doesn’t have a salvage title nosiree?
Buffkomodo: What a clown show of a season this has been for the Spartans. You can fire Fitzy and just reset again next year. It’ll be less gross.
misdreavus79: You mean to tell me the game might have passed Pat Fitzgerald by? HUH!
RockyMtnBlue: I’m envious of MSU fans. You can shitpost 17 Big Ten teams while your team sits around and plans it’s destruction of my team. Curse you MSU fans! /shakes fist
