Big Ten Football Week 5 Picks, Predictions, Previews

Gettin' juggsy with the cannon.

Big Ten Football Week 5 Picks, Predictions, Previews
Photo by Berry Hafkin / Unsplash

MNW: My older read her first sentence last week: "I am a cat."

Did I do that because her mother is a badger fan and our friends in madison mailed us matching packer cheerleader outfits for the two Wildkits last weekend?

How dare you, and how dare you ask why she knows how to sing "Go U Northwestern" and, without my prompting (I swear), called bucky badger a "skunk" to her mother's face last week?

The kids are alright.

They will be alright, goddamnit.

About Last Week

*Must have picked at least half of all games to qualify

Thoughts:

  • Well we sure fixed that whole "I'm winning" thing, didn't we? Holy Christ. 2-7? And barely above .500 straight up? Much like our government, that's impressively shitty.
  • Not a single one of us is batting .500. Your "writers", ladies and gentlemen!
  • glassjawed now leading both categories (.824 straight up)

Picks

Friday, Oct 2

Penn State Nittany Lions @ Northwestern Wildcats

7pm | FOX | Penn State -2.5 | O/U: 45.5
ATS: Northwestern 9-5 | Straight Up: Northwestern 8-6

BRT: A week ago, I wouldn't have found this a hard one to pick. This week though? I'm not sure. If PSU does lose this, the Happy Valley reactions are going to be must-see TV.

Buffkomodo: Northwestern is good. PSU might be…okay? Give me Northwestern. (This means you should put all your money on PSU -14.5)

Thumpasaurus: Nern is winning ten games this year. This is my #2 team versus my #10 team. Of course I’m picking #2 to win outright.

IUinVA: Short (3 points or less), home underdogs in B1G games are 1-5 this season (Purdue covered vs Wake, MD vs UCLA and VT, USC vs Oregon, Minnesota vs MS St, and Cal vs UCLA did not). Opening a new $875M stadium, begging alumni to buy tickets the week of, and losing? That sounds like something Northwestern would do. 

Unfortunately, N’ern is well-coached and has a dynamic quarterback. That could be good enough for 9+ wins this season. Penn State might be looking ahead to the whiteout next week. They might also just be Iowa State. Any PSU preseason playoff talk was about the schedule, not the team, and they already screwed that up. I’ll take the Wildcats to win.

Transient Buckeye:  Yeah @IUinVA has it, here.  Northwestern staying as close to Indiana as they did might’ve been a little bit fluky.  But PSU losing to Wisconsin, while also fluky, is just bad.  If you’re a credible team, you can’t gag that one up.  ‘Cats get the outright win.

misdreavus79: Hopefully that was a one-time lesson learned. 

HoustonBoiler: I’m going with Northwestern to win outright for several reasons: 1) Northwestern is opening a new stadium and that surely has to fire up the team and fans, 2) Northwestern is well-coached and playing well, 3) Penn State just lost at home to wisconsin (of course this could be PSU’s bounce back game), and 4) I would love to see the meltdown in Happy Valley.

RockyMtnBlue: After hearing about Northwestern screwing over their band, I want them to lose all games.  Ergo, they’ll win.  Northwestern 24-21

MNW: That video of Penn State fans booing their players in the tunnel after the game was so damn cringey. I love football, man, and I love my teams...but even with a team of true professionals like the Vikings, I cannot imagine sticking around after a game or, with a straight face, booing players after they lost.

Honestly, for as high as I was on the 'Cats last week, I'm feeling really low today – the Northwestern marching band (NUMB) will not be performing a pregame show, and while it's perhaps alarmist, it feels like this is the beginning of the end of an organization that made me feel, more than any, like I belonged at Northwestern. Everything out of it reads like corporate bullshit that's going to marginalize anything special about the University side of Northwestern.

Penn State runs the ball well enough that it could be a problem for the 'Cats. They've also played no one of note, so perhaps this is all bullshit and meaningless yes I'll have the steak bites and mac'n'cheese to go with a Jamocha Shake, thank you Penn State, 28-21.

Saturday, Oct 3

Michigan Wolverines @ Minnesota Golden Gophers

11:00am | FOX | Michigan -5.5 | O/U: 43.5
ATS: Minnesota 9-5 | Straight Up: Michigan 11-3

mmmmmm

BRT: Another one that's harder to pick than I'd have guessed just recently. I think Michigan rights the ship, but with a bit of a whiff of desperation about them.

Buffkomodo: Hell. I have no idea what to do with this. Split?

Thumpasaurus: Minnesota is better than the Clanga game made them look, but Washington is fraudulent. I don’t think Potnoy’s Finest are losing two in a row. That would be too funny.

IUinVA: B1G nood Jug. Biggest boobs win (Michigan, obviously). This game is NSFW (not suitable for watching).

Transient Buckeye:  Middling this would be funny, wouldn’t it?  Not sure how the Gophers score.  Michigan wins, Minnesota somehow finds a way to cover.

misdreavus79: One team chooses to do the bare minimum as a personality trait. The other has to do the bare minimum because their offense won’t let them do anything else. 

HoustonBoiler: Michigan didn’t deserve their win over WMU and thus, they do not deserve to win in Minneapolis. Minnesota straight up.

RockyMtnBlue: Jug game.  Michigan very seldom loses the Jug.  But this one is close because REFS!!! Michigan 19-16

MNW: I saw the Jug last time it was here in Minnesota. I think I was driving through Mankato – I don't remember why – and there it was at the local Cub Foods:

So hey, Gophers, here's to you. Get as juggsy as WSR in a size-large polo. Can't wait to see the Jug at the Hibbing SuperOne. Gophers, 24-21.

Michigan State Spartans @ Wisconsin Badgers

11:30am | BTN | Wisconsin -10 | O/U: 43.5
ATS: MSU 8-6 | Straight Up: All Wiscy

sleighbells ring...

BRT: It's been a minute since we've had to pay much attention to the Badgers, but they got everyone's attention last week. I wasn't overly wowed watching MSU last week, so give me Wisconsin, spurred on by their recent success.

Buffkomodo: You expect me to believe that Wisconsin is 10 points better than this MSU team? Pass. Split. 

Thumpasaurus: I don’t believe MSU will change their offensive strategy with their best offensive weapon out for the year. Remember who their coach is.

IUinVA: I just can’t give Wisconsin ten points. MSU covers.

Transient Buckeye:  MSU disappointed me last week.  They’ll probably disappoint me again this week, because I’m picking Wisconsin to get the 10-point cover at home.

misdreavus79: All they need to do is spot Michigan State 17 points then they’re good to go!

HoustonBoiler: wisconsin beat Penn State by 10 and Penn State is better than Michigan State. Bucky wins and covers.

RockyMtnBlue:  Wiscy is damned-near ranked.  I ain’t buyin’ it. Wisconsin 27-20

MNW: Sure, what the hell. Who knows. Sparty's in trouble without Cam Edwards for the season. badger, 35-7.

(5) Ohio State Buckeyes @ (14) Iowa Hawkeyes

2:30pm | CBS | OSU -14 | O/U: 45,5
ATS: OSU Tied 7-7 | Straight Up: OSU 13-1

BRT: It's probably dumb to pick against a man who clearly has a deal with the devil like Kirk Ferentz, but I'm going to. That said, if Iowa does win… when's the last time someone knocked out Michigan and OSU in consecutive weeks? That would be like the pinnacle of Big Ten bragging rights.

Buffkomodo: Iowa did win this game almost a decade ago. Kinnick is magical and BRT referencing however Kirk has tapped into Satan’s power does deserve some investigation. However….Ohio State’s offense is better than Michigan’s. Ohio state wins. Iowa covers. 

Thumpasaurus: Iowa never has the juice in consecutive weeks. They’ll certainly do a better job against Jeremiah Smith than Illinois did, but that bar is in hell.

IUinVA: I want to pick Iowa to win outright, but I can’t quite get there. Iowa covers, but Ohio State escapes because Jeremiah Smith is totally unfair, you guys.

Transient Buckeye:  If Iowa can find a way to make this a one possession game, they have an excellent shot at pulling the upset.  I don’t think they can.  OSU wins by 10, Hawkeye fans have the cover as a moral victory.

misdreavus79: The deals with the devil were made in Bloomington, turns out.

HoustonBoiler: This game is during the afternoon so I expect Ohio State to win, but Iowa brings its rock collection and covers. Had it been a night game, I would have to account for Kinnick magic.

RockyMtnBlue: You used up all your luck last week, Hawks.  The bill comes due.  Ohio State 34-10

MNW: Somehow, someway, Kirk Ferentz is always lurking just around the corner, waiting, in the dark, with a sock full of nickels. Beware Kinnick. OSU, 24-21.

Maryland Terrapins @ Nebraska Cornhuskers

3:00pm | FS1 | Nebraska -14.5 | O/U: 52.5
ATS: All Nebby | Straight Up: All Nebby

BRT: I mean, given how Maryland looked last week, the Huskers had better win this decisively, or yikes.

Buffkomodo: Hahahahahaha splatter. Nebby kicks the dogshit out of Maryland. 

Thumpasaurus: Turn out the Locks, the party’s over.

IUinVA: Maryland is dead. Nebraska by five touchdowns and a national ranking going in to next week’s game against the reigning national champs.

Transient Buckeye:  I rated Maryland below Rutgers in this week’s Power Poll   Do you know how down bad you have to be for that to happen in 2026?  Cornhuskers by a lot.

misdreavus79: Hope the extra year made a dent on that buyout.

HoustonBoiler: Given that Maryland appeared to have given up last week at home, I think they will roll over in Lincoln. Huskers by a lot.

RockyMtnBlue:  Maryland is really really bad.  Nebraska 24-6

MNW: Ja Rule runs for a few and a hundo. Nebraska, 42-10.

Purdue Boilermakers @ Illinois Fighting Illini

4:15pm | BTN | Illinois -10 | O/U: 61.5
ATS: Illinois 8-6 | Straight Up: Illinois 13-1

BRT: Probably Illinois wins, but I do know that the lamentations in our comment section during this game are going to be unmatched. Skies WILL be falling.

Buffkomodo: Illinois should win. Like…they should. Didn’t a 2 win Ryan Walter’s team take Illinois to OT a couple of years ago? I dunno. I like Illinois a lot but dang if this isn’t kinda sketchy to think about for more than 2 seconds. 

HoustonBoiler: That was a one win Ryan Walters team (2024) in Ryan Browne's first start that took Illinois to overtime.

Thumpasaurus: This is your Big Ten Game of the Week. That under is getting ANNIHILATED. Illinois is getting some help back at guard and receiver, and Purdue has shown a lot of life on offense against soft defenses. The Illini defense is an absolute joke, but Purdue’s is measurably worse. I am considering starting Katin Houser over Michael Hawkins. This will be very fun for a neutral to watch and absolutely horrible for the losing team.

glass: Without a lick of defense between them, this one is going full Tor Eckman. Cleveland 117, San Antonio 109.

IUinVA: Purdue is going to win this game. 44-41 Boilers.

Transient Buckeye:  There’s no reason to pick Purdue to cover.  Except for the history of this series.  Oh, and the fact that Illinois’s defense blows chunks.  Okay, I guess there ARE reasons to pick Purdue to cover the spread.

misdreavus79: Points!

HoustonBoiler: Bert threw a monkey wrench into the expected offensive explosion when he let the DC go. Last time Purdue played a road game against a team that had just fired its DC, a much better Purdue team was blown out. Illinois will still score a ton of points, win, and cover.

RockyMtnBlue: I don’t fucking know.  Should be a fun watch, though.  Wild assed guess says split.  Illinois 34-27

MNW: I PEE I PEE I I I PEE Illinois, 34-23

Washington Huskies @ (18) USC Trojans

6:30pm | NBC | USC -9.5 | O/U: 58.5
ATS: USC 12-2 | Straight Up: All USC

BRT: USC I guess.

Buffkomodo: Washing Machine sucks. USC can score. There’s just not a lot to say other than I’ll take USC and root for Washington. 

Thumpasaurus: Lincoln Riley is soft, but not that soft. What exactly happened to Washington? Why are they so much worse this year?

IUinVA: Washington is ass. Fake tough guy Trojans by double digits.

Transient Buckeye:  Why is this spread only 9.5.  Trojans win by lots.  And thanks, BRT, for noting in WTHDIJW that this is exactly what I said about Penn State and Wisconsin last weekend.  Either I’ll be right this time, or USC will lose in hilarious fashion.  Either way, I’m going to count that as a win.

misdreavus79: Apparently when you hold a quarterback hostage it goes badly, huh?

HoustonBoiler: Lincoln needs a stylish win in the worst way. While Husky puppies are cuter, they lose and lose bigly. While he won’t be playing, Desman Stephens II can still get fucked!

RockyMtnBlue:  So this season debunked “September Maryland Is Good.”  Will it also debunk “Road Washington Sucks”?  Probably, since I’m counting on it.  USC 38-24

MNW: don't care USC, 35-21.

(6) Indiana Hoosiers @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights

7:00pm | BTN | Indiana -24.5 | O/U: 55.5
ATS: Indiana 10-4 | Straight Up: All Indiana

Someone please make the red go away

BRT: I mean, Rutgers has the chance to do the second-funniest thing they've done this season. Not a good chance, mind you. But a chance.

Buffkomodo: At some point Indiana is going to drop a game they shouldn’t. It’s setting up perfectly to happen. Indiana is having problems scoring, Rutgers can kinda score now. Indiana is very banged up at RB and CB. The OLine is having fits. That said, Rutgers isn’t very good and Indiana is much tougher and well coached than USC. Indiana wins, Rutgers covers, and the Hoosiers get full upset alert next week in Nebby. 

Thumpasaurus: Cignetti is clearly washed now that he’s won the title, the attention to detail is just gone and there’s no more discipline on this team. Execution in the red zone on offense is a problem, and if they couldn’t contain Nern’s receivers they won’t stand a chance against KJ Duff.

However, whoever starts at QB for The ‘Gers is gonna serve up some defensive touchdowns for the Hoosiers. Washed Cig may still be the best coach in the conference.

glass: following the conclusion of this one, Coach Cigarillo, furious that the league has forced the Hoosiers to suffer through the ignominity of playing two Power 4 schools, IN A ROW, immediately gets on the horn to file a formal complaint with Tony Pettiti.

IUinVA: Four games in, it’s time to accept this Indiana team for what they are, not what they could be. Indiana gets their 21st straight win, but Rutgers covers.

Transient Buckeye:  I think Indiana is 8.5 points better than UMass.  Hoosiers win and cover.

misdreavus79: Death Star moniker on the line here.

HoustonBoiler: I have to believe Cignetti is super pissed about last week’s performance and takes it out on Rutgers. Yes, the Hoosiers remember to prepare.

RockyMtnBlue:  Rutgers was pretty spunky against USC.  They get the back door cover.  Indiana 38-14

MNW: The bad luck Indiana had against Northwestern will surely turn against the Knights, right? Indiana, 35-7.

Too Cowardly To Play

Oregon Ducks
UCLA Bruins

Buffkomodo: Glad Dante Moore is okay. This couldn’t have come at a better time for them. UCLA? <middle finger here>

misdreavus79: words.

HoustonBoiler: Great time for a bye week for Dante Moore and I really wish him the best in his recovery.

RockyMtnBlue:  I only like one of these four west coast programs we added, and that one (UCLA) isn’t even playing this week.  Lame.

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