Big Ten Basketball, February 9: CFP Semifinal Rematch on the Hardwood

Yesterday's Games

USC Trojans 77, Penn State Nittany Lions 75

BoilerUp89: Dozens of Nittany Lion fans were once again kicked in the stomach as USC freshman Alijah Arenas made the game winning basket with 0.7 seconds remaining. I still don't really believe in USC, but they are a much better team with Arenas in the rotation.

Kind of...: Yeah, you can play the "What if Rodney Rice were healthy?" game, but there's still only one ball. USC is what it is: part of the conference's mushy middle. Every game is a new spin of the wheel.

Michigan Wolverines 82, The Ohio State Buckeyes 61

BoilerUp89: Oh, Mara is now making three pointers. UCLA should fire Cronin for his failure to give Mara enough minutes last year.

Kind of...: I was scarred by him dropping 22 on Wisconsin last year on 7-7 from the floor. I thought he was a lottery pick. Given more "film" I can obviously see his limitations. But, yeah, a defensive-minded coach should be able to get some use out of an intermittently effective 7'3" post player. Dorian May sure seems to have a role for him.

Wolverines aren't back to '72 UCLA levels of dominance, but they also aren't spending much time playing with their food. @Thumpasaurus can educate you about the recent history of the Illinois/Michigan hoops rivalry. But Michigan looks like the best team in the conference.

Maryland Terrapins 67, Minnesota Golden Gophers 62

HoustonBoiler: Oh Minnesota, just when we were beginning to believe, you crap the bed.

Kind of...: I mean, if you're going to go 1-1, beating MSU is probably worth the brutal loss to Maryland. But yeah, it's time to overlook Iowa's loss to the Gophers and put McCollum at #1 in the "former Drake coach" rankings. In the last 10 games, Minnesota has two OT losses, a loss on a walk off 3 by Blackwell, a different loss to Wisconsin where Minnesota blew a 20 point lead, and gut-punching losses to the two worst teams in the conference.

So, yeah, Minnesota is good enough to scare, even beat, some of the better teams in the conference. But the floor also hasn't been raised as much as one would've hoped. (Johnson went 9-11 and 7-13 in conference play his last two years...yes with marginally better rosters.)

Iowa Hawkeyes 76, Northwestern Wildcats 70

Kind of...: A tougher-than-it-needed-to-be win over Northwestern is probably the wrong time to sing Iowa's praises. But they're 8-4 in conference and need to only be one game better than KenPom projects to grab a top-4 finish in the conference race. Maybe they go 0-2 when Purdue and Nebraska come to town the next 10 days. Maybe they get upset in the first round of the NCAA tournament. Maybe they've peaked and we don't realize it. But...

I think coaches are usually overrated. And Bennett Stirtz has been AMAZING the last three games. 90 points on 48 FGA. Read that again. But...

I pay closer attention to the MVC than almost anybody I know. I saw what McCollum did at Drake last year. I knew about his achievements at NW Missouri State (I won't say I follow D-II hoops). I'm throwing up in my mouth as I type this, but it sure seems like Iowa hired a younger version of Bo Ryan.

Tonight's Game

#84 Oregon Ducks (8-15, 1-11) at #25 Indiana Hoosiers (16-8, 7-6)

8:30 ET, FS1

BoilerUp89: Oregon has been down bad, but looked better against Purdue with Bittle back.

Kind of...: Indiana is fresh off their (pick an adjective) _____ win over Wisconsin. The stat nerds love them (thought Torvik WAY more than KP, who has them at 35), and they appear to safely be in the tournament right now. But a loss tonight could ruin everything. Oregon accumulated much of their disappointing season without Bittle, but are much better with him. And the next two games are road trips to Illinois and Purdue. Do you really want to see what the stat nerds think about a 16-11/7-9 version of you, Hoosiers?

Non-B1G Games of Interest

Games only BoilerUp89 should care about

Saint Francis Red Flash (6-17, 4-6) at Chicago State Cougars (4-20, 2-9), 4 ET
Yale Bulldogs (17-4, 5-2) at Howard Bison (15-9, 8-3), 7 ET, ESPN+
Incarnate Word Cardinals (10-14, 5-10) at SELA Lions (7-17, 4-11), 7 ET, ESPN+
Alcorn State Hornets (4-18, 3-7) at Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils (1-22, 0-9), 8 ET

BoilerUp89: Okay, Chicago State is chasing Wagner & Saint Francis in the NEC standings and needs to catch one of them. This is a huge opportunity for them to make up ground and has the downside that a loss makes it a two team race for the final NEC tournament spot. Similarly, Incarnate Word & SELA are among the many Southland teams battling for conference tournament spots.

I've listed Yale at Howard because I want to know why this game is happening. Anyone in the comments know?

Finally, the Delta Devils are once again one of the worst teams in Division 1. Their only win of the season came against non-Division 1 competition. Last year they had one Division 1 win over Pine Bluff. The year before they had one Division 1 win over Prairie View. Alcorn State is the next worst team in the SWAC this season and the Delta Devils get them at home. I don't want to say this is their only remaining shot at a Division 1 victory this year (it's not), but it's their best remaining opportunity.

Kind of...: It does seem odd, but this is the fourth straight year Yale and Howard are playing, and fifth time since 2020. Yale has won them all. Howard is part of the "Black Ivy League" and would certainly have a claim to being the Harvard of HBCUs, so maybe Yale is just taking things too seriously?

Games for the Sane

NC State Wolfpack (18-6, 9-2) at Louisville Cardinals (17-6, 7-4), 7 ET, ESPN
Belmont bruins (22-3, 12-2) at Bradley Braves (16-9, 9-5), 8 ET, ESPN+
UNC Wilmington Seahawks (19-4, 8-2) at Charleston Cougars (16-8, 9-2), 8 ET, CBSSN
Arizona Wildcats (23-0, 10-0) at Kansas Jayhawks (18-5, 8-2), 9 ET, ESPN

BoilerUp89: Belmont has three road games left against top half of the Valley teams. This is the first of those. Win those three, take care of business at home, and get to the Arch Madness final and we will be having a conversation.

NC State's conference record is slightly inflated. They've yet to play Duke, UNC, Miami, or Louisville and they have another game against Virginia (who the lost to in January. In the Wolfpack's defense they have nice road wins against SMU and Clemson but it wouldn't be a surprise if they finish 12-6 in the ACC.

Charleston & Wilmington will battle to determine who wins the CAA regular season. The duo have a three game lead on the pack but play each other tonight and in the regular season finale.

If you are like me, you were briefly wondering why Arizona and Kansas were playing a non-conference game in February. It's an important game for the Big 12 standings and should tell us a lot about whether Kansas is a contender or not.

Kind of...: Belmont's two MVC losses were each by a single point, and they had a >90% win probability in each. (The Indiana State loss was a flat out choke, in fact.) But they do have some close wins. The record is fair. If you give the A-10 two bids, then I'll claim that Belmont is the best team in America playing in a one-bid league. I'd take them over Miami without hesitating. But, we all know about how small the margin for error is in the mid-majors. And those one-point losses give the committee all the excuse they need.

I don't feel icky watching Big 12 hoops. But even if I did, tonight's game is must see. Kansas (yes, icky) has won seven straight and is legit with a healthy Peterson. If you like the sport, this is a matchup that should interest you.