Big Ten Basketball, February 11: Overtime Games For Everyone!

Last Night's Games

Purdue Boilermakers 80, Nebraska Cornhuskers 77 (OT)

BoilerUp89: It was quite the collapse by the Boilermakers who lead by 14 with 2:45 remaining. Purdue had 54 rebounds including 21 offensive boards. Why was it still a close game? They took 46 three pointers and went 55% from the free throw line. Gross. Oh well, all conference wins are beautiful.

HoustonBoiler: It wasn't pretty, but I'll take the overtime road win over a top ten Nebraska team. Purdue was laying bricks left and right, which resulted in lots of rebound opportunities. Fortunately, Purdue dominated on the glass (54 to 37). While Purdue had 11 turnovers, which is more than I would like, Nebraska had a very uncharacteristic 14. To add to what BoilerUp89 said above, Purdue made 13 of those 46 3-point attempts (28%) and 28 of their 76 field goal attempts (37%). Nebraska shot better, but not by much (38% on 3-pointers, 44% on all field goals, and 65% on free throws).

Kind of...: Yeah, the box scores doesn't make much sense. I did stress rebounding for Purdue in the preview yesterday, and TKR grabbed 19 with Cluff adding 14, including 10 on offense! At the same time, I'm sure Painter would rather Cluff only grab 5 offensive boards and Fletcher Loyer go better than 4-17 from 3. But, it's a road win. Both these teams look like 3-seeds to me. Both can be disappointed by that: Purdue because of preseason expectations; Nebraska because of the hot start. But it takes pretty good teams to shoot so poorly last night yet put on such a compelling game.

Wisconsin Badgers 92, Illinois Fighting Illini 90 (OT)

BoilerUp89: Wisconsin was feisty. Like a trapped skunk that's been stuck in a popcorn container.

The Illini rotation was really short for this one. 2026 NBA first round draft pick Wagler tried to will the Illini to a victory with 34 points, but the Badgers took advantage of the 4 to 13 turnover advantage and slightly deeper bench to pull out the win.

Kind of...: To paraphrase Bo Ryan's cardinal rule: "Some nights you shoot better than others, but all things being equal, you'd rather be the team that attempts more shots."

There are various ways to attempt more shots. You could, like Purdue, hammer the offensive boards such that you have a 76-59 FGA advantage over Nebraska (both teams shot 20 FTs). Wisconsin had a 76-60 FGA advantage over Illinois last night. That is marginally offset by Illinois attempting 19 FTs to UW's 14 (but Illinois was only 11-19; not inconsequential in a two-point OT game), but more of it was the 14-8 edge in offensive boards (which completely confounds both teams' identities) and the Wisconsin being +9 in turnovers (which does not).

As I've grown older, I've really gotten annoyed with the cult of the coach in college sports. Seen too many of them fail at the professional level (and too many just carry on like jackasses). The more talented teams wins the vast majority of the time, regardless of who's on the sideline. BUT, sometimes the eternal truths about fundamentals are right. Make your FTs and take care of the ball, fellas, and you can win some games you shouldn't.

Tonight's Games

#20 Iowa Hawkeyes (18-5, 8-4) at #129 Maryland Terrapins (9-14, 2-10)

6 ET, FS1

BoilerUp89: Iowa has done well losing to who they are supposed to and beating who they are supposed to (except Minnesota). Tonight would be a terrible time for that to stop happening.

Kind of...: It's still unlikely, but Iowa has a clear path to a top-4 B1G finish (and triple bye at the BTT). It would require--besides not losing tonight--beating both Purdue and Nebraska in Carver over the next seven days. Again, unlikely, but Michigan is the only team more than one game ahead of them in the loss column. Sorry to keep repeating myself, but Iowa has made a good hire. The Hawkeyes do a lot less dumb things than they used to which, notwithstanding what I just said above about coaching, does matter at the margins. And, keeping in mind what I just said above, this isn't Ben McCollum with a magic wand. Bennett Stirtz has been great all year and has been on an absolute heater the last three games.

#47 USC Trojans (18-6, 7-6) at #39 The Ohio State Buckeyes (15-8, 7-6)

6:30 ET, BTN

BoilerUp89: Honestly don't love either team, but USC with Arenas feels more dangerous at this point in the season.

Kind of...: The loser will be the clear #11 in the B1G pecking order in a year where 10 bids are looking most likely.

MaximumSam: OSU basketball is terminal. More fun is watching an OSU assistant professor assault a guy trying to ask Gordon Gee questions. Shows more fight than our defense!

#1 Michigan Wolverines (22-1, 12-1) at #73 Northwestern Wildcats (10-14, 2-11)

8:30 ET, BTN

BoilerUp89: Roll cats!

Kind of...: It would be really funny if it happened. But it's not going to happen. Oh, you meant Northwestern losing by 50? I don't think that would be very funny. But it might happen.

HoustonBoiler: If only there were a detective available to investigate the murder of a college basketball team.

#128 Penn State Nittany Lions (10-14, 1-12) at #44 Washington Huskies (12-12, 4-9)

10:30 ET, BTN

Kind of...: Okay, you're not paying attention and I don't blame you. But Torvik and KP both have Washington higher than USC. The Huskies' closing seven games are: vs. PSU, vs. Minnesota, @Maryland, @Rutgers, vs. Wisconsin, vs. USC, @Oregon. IF Washington goes 6-1 and finishes 18-13/10-10, they're probably above both USC and OSU int he pecking order (or, at least tied, but with a H2H advantage) and a relatively safe at-large team. You can hate it given that there are no big wins and there will be some mid-majors with compelling arguments, I'm just giving you a heads-up.

Non-B1G Games of Interest

Sickos Edition

#348 UTSA Roadrunners (4-19, 0-11) at #290 East Carolina Pirates (7-16, 2-8), 7 ET, ESPN+
#322 North Florida Ospreys (6-19, 4-8) at #237 Florida Gulf Coast Eagles (10-15, 4-8), 7 ET, ESPN+
#307 Jacksonville Dolphins (9-16, 4-8) at #323 Stetson Hatters (8-17, 4-8), 7 ET, ESPN+
#141 Austin Peay Governors (17-6, 11-1) at #208 Queens Royals (14-11, 9-3), 7 ET, ESPN+
#72 Wake Forest Demon Deacons (11-12, 2-8) at #134 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (11-13, 2-9), 9 ET, ACCN

Regular Edition

#62 Virginia Tech Hokies (16-8, 5-6) at #23 Clemson Tigers (20-4, 10-1), 7 ET, ACCN
#50 Missouri Tigers (16-7, 6-4) at #26 Texas A&M Aggies (17-6, 7-3), 9 ET, SECN
#45 New Mexico Lobos (18-6, 9-4) at $49 Grand Canyon Antelopes (15-8, 8-4), 10 ET, FS1

HoustonBoiler: With both teams ranked over 300 and the slightly higher rated team being on the road, the Jacksonville at Stetson game is my Sickos pick of the night.

Kind of...: "We all have our limits," they say. But maybe HoustonBoiler doesn't...?

Sorry to be smarmy and self-congratulatory for a second, but:

A few weeks ago, the advanced stats said George Mason's gaudy record was the result of a really high-sugar schedule and the VCU was clearly the better team. I agreed and really railed against GMU's NCAA likelihood. Since then, the Patriots are 3-3, and the Rams haven't lost.

So, please remember what a genius I am when I tell you that I have no freaking idea what to make of the MWC and/but New Mexico/GCU is a fascinating, urgent game tonight. Utah State had dropped a couple and was trailing SDSU by 7 at home halfway through the second. But they won that game and then demolished New Mexico in the Pit. The Aggies are a tournament team. The Aztecs (17-6/11-2, 42 NET) look like one, too. New Mexico's NET is 45, but they've lost their last two, including a home loss to Boise State that completed a season sweep. Boise State and Nevada both look to be too far back, but still could finish hot, make a MWC tournament run, and maybe get some at-large consideration. And then there's Grand Canyon. Good enough to have already beaten both Utah State and San Diego State at home, they try to do the same to New Mexico tonight.

With the Antelopes at 70 in the NET, this could be a Quad 1 win for the Lobos (at least for now). You can't earn (or lose) an NCAA bid in a single game, but among the mosaic that makes up the season for a mid-major, it's games like this that really add up.

BoilerUp89: Both ASUN games are critical for determining who makes that conference tournament.

George Mason/VCU is why I don't get too wrapped up in resumes in January. I absolutely want the best resumes (read as most deserving not necessarily best teams) in the tournament come March but advanced metrics are a better predictor for future success.