Battle of the Mitten: Big Ten Basketball January 30 Recaps, Previews, and Open Thread

Yesterday

Illinois Fighting Illini 75, Washington Huskies 66

MaximumSam: The freshmen delivered, at least. Keaton Wagler led all scorers with 22, while Hannes Steinbach had a double double. Also of note - Illinois only played seven guys and Wagler played 22 minutes. We'll see if the Freshman Wall comes for him.

Kind of...: One way of proving you're for real is bombing Purdue off their homecourt. Another way is being thoroughly pedestrian against a reasonably good (NIT-caliber) team and not being threatened at all.

Somebody in the comments called out Mirkovic yesterday or the day before, I can't remember who. But my commentary tends to be where bad predictions go, so, there you are. An efficient 19 points for the Montenegrin.

Also of not is that Illinois heads to Lincoln Sunday to play a Nebraska team that's been off since Tuesday. As of yet, Brad Underwood has not erupted into sputtering outrage against evidence that the B1G scheduling conspiracy extends beyond the confines of Westwood.

Northwestern Wildcats 94, Penn State Nittany Lions 73

Kind of...: As I noted yesterday, these are two not good teams that still had a very clear qualitative difference between them. And that was apparent last night. PSU had a decent first 10 minutes, but the Wildcats then took control and ran away with things late. I have nothing else to say about PSU. They're not awful at the level of, say, '16 Rutgers and '23 Minnesota, but they're doing a pretty good imitation. KePom thinks they'll go 3-17. I'm more bearish. If they don't have a win by 2/18, when Rutgers comes to town, that might be their last chance.

As for Northwestern...let's first, directly and unironically, celebrate Nick Martelli's 34 points on 19 shots. This was an exemplary offensive performance regardless of opposition.

Beyond that, though, let's note that Northwestern in 362 in KenPom's luck metric, and that he has them ranked 55, basically on the same level as 46 USC (who they just beat on the road) and 48 Washington. They're in the top 70 of the NCAA's NET rankings. It's been a tough year.

Let's further note that, recognizing this, Collins has committed to a youth movement. Frosh Tre Singleton has been starting most of the season, but frosh Jake West has started the last five, frosh Tyler Kropp the last three, and sophomore Max Green the last three. Junior Jayden Reid (who transferred in from South Florida this year), who started the first 16 games, has played an average of 12 minutes over the last three games. Arrinten Page, who came in from Cincinnati and has 16 starts this year, played 3 minutes last night. Collins is doubling down on player development. If nothing else, he is not capative to the sunk cost fallacy. It's mostly happening under the radar, but it's worth watching and the Wildcats might be a tough out down the stretch.

Today

#1 Michigan Wolverines at #12 Michigan State Spartans

8 pm, FOX

MaximumSam: Now this is a Friday night game. Per the FancyStats these are the two best defenses in the land. Two things to watch. Can Sparty score? They want to attack the basket but Michigan has some Ents down there.

Second, will Jeremy Fears put Elliott Cadeau into a blender? When Michigan struggles they are usually turning the ball over and getting all out of joint. The Breslin will be rocking and I look forward to whatever troll job Fears plan on doing tonight.

Kind of...: With a concision that I am likely incapable of, @MaximumSam has broken this huge matchup down to its essence. Insert your worst, "MSU's PG must be Fear-less against the Michigan frontline" if you must, but it really is where my focus begins. That said, somebody else needs to produce for Sparty. I get that Carr springs next to mine, but I have to think Izzo has spent that last 48 hours using every motivational tool in the book to build up Kohler and Cooper. They're 6'10" and 6'11". Whoever Mara doesn't draw (probably Kohler?) needs to do some work. Heck, whoever Mara DOES draw, needs to draw some fouls. Really fascinating game.

HoustonBoiler: Battle for first place on a Friday night. Looks like the TV schedulers got at least one right. MaximumSam nailed it and was very concise in doing so.

Non-B1G Games of Interest

#227 Dartmouth (9-9, 3-2) @ #66 Yale (15-3, 4-1), 7:00 ESPN+

#87 Dayton (14-7, 5-3) @ #23 Saint Louis (20-1, 8-0), 8:00 CBSSN

#56 Boise State (13-8, 5-5) @ #51 Grand Canyon (13-7, 6-3), 9:00, FS1

Kind of...: Dartmouth is sitting at 3-2 in Ivy League play despite being rated by the statheads as the second-worst team in the league. Well, tonight they head to first-place Yale. Either they get their comeuppance, or we have a story on our hands. Dayton is in trouble, having lost their last three. Their at-large hopes are dead, but a win tonight keeps them in the top four and, talent-wise, they're good enough to pull the upset. But the Billikens are the clear class of the conference. We'll all likely be watching Michigan/MSU anyway, but after that game ends, give Boise State/GCU a look. The Broncos metrics still really like the Broncos and they've won four straight, though not necessarily against the elite of the conference. A road win tonight, and we might have to keep Boise State in mind as a threat to win the conference tournament.

HoustonBoiler: Boise State at Grand Canyon looks like a great matchup for those who need more basketball after Michigan/MSU.