B1G Hoops Preview: The Teams

Look! Over there! It's Lucy holding a football!!! That must mean it's time to discuss the hoops national title possibilities of the B1G!

But this year just might be different.

No, really. It might be.

FIRST WORD

With all due respect to the rest of the writers, I'll put my view out here right away. If I'm picking a team, it's Houston. But if I'm picking a conference, yeah I think the B1G is likeliest to produce the champ this year (but just barely over the SEC). Screw your jinxes. That's just a statement based on my informed amateur assessment.

QUESTIONS

Almost everybody (and Haslametrics is an outlier in several ways) has a top four of Purdue, Michigan, Illinois, and UCLA (that order is the result of my weighted aggregate calculation).

1) Do you agree with that top four? Do you agree with the order? How many of these teams can actually win the NCAA title? Who is likeliest to disappoint?

BoilerUp89: I don't agree with the order. I have UCLA 3rd and Illinois 2nd while Purdue and Michigan are 1A and 1B to me (admittedly I have yet to see Michigan play and observe their flaws like Purdue). I think all 4 can make the Final 4... but I think only Purdue and Michigan can win it all. The Illini are most likely to disappoint. The range of outcomes is just too wide.

MaximumSam: These are definitely the most complete teams with the fewest questions marks. I picked Illinois to win the conference - I'm all in on Team Euroball. Can any of them win a title? I mean, this is B1G Country, we don't do things like that. I'd say Auburn North and Illinois are the top contenders to actually win it.

Kind of...: I think Illinois is the highest variance team. Part Underwood's track record, part Illini going all-in on a specific...approach. Feel like Purdue is the safest bet to finish in top 4, but has a lower ceiling than UCLA and Michigan. BoilerUp89 and I clearly mind-melded over Mara. IF Michigan maximizes their inside game then merely good guard play might be good enough for a Final Four. As for UCLA, Dent might be the best player in the conference, but there are the obvious questions inside. So, I'll go Michigan, Purdue, UCLA. Illinois doesn't finish top 4. I'll say the top 3 all can win the title, but for UCLA it would require '19 Virginia levels of luck.

AlmaOtter: I think Michigan State will do MSU things and be there in February/March, so let's imagine that one of Illinois or UCLA drop to #5 or lower? I'm slightly more reticent to believe that Underwood's Band of Balkan Brothers will immediately gel, but dammit I'd love to see it.

The middle of the conference is much less tidy, it would appear. But for the sake of keeping things manageable, let's call MSU, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Oregon, and USC, the most common picks to finish 5-9.

2) Who is likeliest to finish in the top 4? Who can you see making the deepest NCAA run, and what appears to be their ceiling? Who is going to disappoint?

BoilerUp89: I'll say Wisconsin even though I like Oregon’s and MSU's ceilings more. Oregon can make an Elite 8 but needs a broken bracket. USC can and will disappoint.

MaximumSam: Sparty and Wisconsin are the easy answers for me. I'm pretty high on this Wisconsin team and wouldn't be surprised if they are competing for the conference. Michigan State has another veteran group and great history.

I'm not really seeing it with OSU and USC and could see them falling into the back half. Oregon is a bit of a wildcard. Maybe I'm just not used to seeing them.

Kind of...: I appreciate that others are giving Wisconsin some love. That makes me think I'm not being too myopic. Winter wants to be a 4, and there's no 5 ready to go. But that's more of a defensive concern, and there are plenty of fouls on the bench. I like Austin Rapp so far, so, yeah, give me Wisconsin in 4th. I also like Oregon's ceiling. If Shelstad stays healthy, they finish ahead of Illinois too. I think Sparty is a top half team, but I like Maryland and Iowa better than OSU and USC.

AlmaOtter: Seconding MaxSam. I think, at least until otherwise demonstrated, we have to assume that MSU and Gard's Wiscy will be there.

Given the above, we are giving bulletin board material to Maryland, Indiana, Iowa, and Washington, and Nebraska, all of whom harbor seemingly legit NCAA tournament dreams.

3) How many of these teams will actually finish in the top half of the conference? Can you see any of them in the Sweet 16? How many will miss the NCAA entirely?

BoilerUp89: Three for me. Buzz is one of the higher floor coaches in the country and Maryland will be steady. I'm a big believer in McCollum although things could go sideways with one injury as their isn't much depth. I believe slightly more in Washington than Indiana but actually think Northwestern is going to be seeded in front of both come March. Washington could make a Sweet 16. They have the most talent.

I think IU and Nebraska just miss out on making the field.

MaximumSam: I'm ready for Nebraska to make a run. Washington also seems like a team that could make a real jump. I'm out on the other three - certainly all three coaches are good and could put something together, but the B1G can chew up programs that are still figuring things out.

Kind of...: Already noted my positive views on Iowa and Maryland, both of whom I have in the top half and in the tournament. I think things go very sideways for either USC or Washington (maybe both), and I just am not buying OSU, so give me Washington and Indiana as at-larges, and Nebraska sneaking into the play-in, with OSU, USC, and Northwestern among the first eight out.

AlmaOtter: Indiana and Iowa will get there, but I'm not believing it until we see it. I'm more pessimistic on Buzz than BU89. (God help me) I like Hoiberg and Nebrasketball's consistency and home-court advantage. I don't know anything about the Huskies except that their coach's name is Sprinkle.

Which leaves Northwestern, Minnesota, Rutgers, and Penn State as the consensus bottom four.

4) Can any of these teams make the tournament this year? Does any program have intermediate term (3-5 years) that make you optimistic?

BoilerUp89: I said it above but count out Collins at your own risk. Northwestern isnt going to wow anybody but they will still find ways to grind out more wins than expected and they built a schedule to rack up nonconference wins against Quad 2 opponents. I want to see something from Medved this year. A glimmer of hope that the Minnesota program can break out. They wont this year but with some momentum and patience can. Unfortunately I think we are counting down on the Rutgers and Penn State jobs coming open.

MaximumSam: Ditto on the Detective and Northwestern. I'd be pretty surprised if the rest did anything, with the caveat that Rutgers will be back in its sweet spot and will be a tough out.

Kind of...: I don't hate Collins (he's not at Duke anymore, after all), but I think my colleagues overrate him a bit. Per KenPom, the Wildcats have under-performed his preseason rankings 8 of 12 years in his tenure. This year, they're #57, and tied for 14th with Nebraska. The talent seems worse than last year (yes, injuries, I get it). That said, they're clearly better than the other three right now, though I really want to see what Medved can do with the Gophers the next few years.

5) Okay, let's be simple, give me your: A) B1G champion, B) # of NCAA teams, C) # of second-weekend teams, D) your Final Four with champion in bold, E) your hottest of takes for the season ahead

BoilerUp89: Split title between Michigan and Purdue, 10 Tournament teams, 5 second weekend teams, Purdue Houston Louisville Duke, A10 gets three bids.

MaximumSam: A. Illinois. B. 9. C. 4. D. Houston, Florida, St. John's, UConn. E. Rick Pitino wins a championship, then eats dinner at an Italian restaurant while wearing a t-shirt that says "Suck it Gordon Gee."

Kind of...: Michigan and Purdue share the title. 12 tournament teams (preseason is for optimism!). 5 in the Sweet 16. Houston, Michigan, Purdue, ummm...Texas Tech (!). SEC being shut out of Final Four is pretty hot, right? Also...Creighton is going to have great regular season with Owen Freeman and Josh Dix putting up numbers. This will lead people to realize that, yes, Fran McCaffery did waste some real talent. But Creighton will flame out in the NCAAs. This will lead people to realize that, while Fran McCaffery didn't teach much defense, he also didn't recruit with it in mind, either.

AlmaOtter: Purdue takes the title, #10 teams in March, 4 second-week teams and I have no goddamn clue about the F4, but Houston's winning the title. They've been living in the Peach Basket metric (patent pending) for five years running. They're due.