A Sicko’s Guide to Mid-Major Programs to Keep an Eye On
Many thanks to OTR reader Glassjawed for this monstrous mid-major manual!
Many thanks to OTR reader Glassjawed for this monstrous mid-major manual! 2500 words on the American and the A-10? Seek help, my man.
And if you would also like to write a piece for OTR, hit us up with an email at offtacklerepublic@gmail.com! Our editorial standards are very low!
So, Glass is back with more nonsense that nobody cares about but me. Hooray??
The purpose of whatever this is is to help interested parties zero in on any mid-major programs that have the potential to snag an at large bid to the 2026 NCAA tournament.
As always, I need to clarify a few mitigating factors before I even dive into the numbers. Let’s define “mid-major” as any non-Gonzaga/Memphis/St Mary’s program from a non-power 5 league who isn’t heading to the Pac12 next year (so no SDSU, Boise, Utah St or Colorado St either). To be frank, it is boring and exhausting pretending like schools such as Memphis and St Mary’s (who make the tournament almost every year) are in the same category as some of the other schools we will discuss here. Gleefully to the curb (and likely into the NCAA tournament) they go.
Secondly, In order to determine which mid-majors have the potential to receive an at large come march I used 2 factors: A NET rating with the potential to go below 77 (which was Rutgers’ number when they became the most undeserving team to ever snag an at large bid in 2019) and at least ONE season defining Q1 win left on their schedule. They would ideally need more, but in the fantasy land inside my head I struggle to comprehend the selection committee leaving a 31-3 Northen Iowa out if they have a road win at St Mary’s on their resume.
FINALLY, because I know BU89 would say something, none of this includes any wins/losses potentially picked up in a conference tournament. It gets too messy when you try and start accounting for those in November.
With all that out of the way let’s get this giant turd rolling downhill. (all NET numbers via Torvik’s T-Ranketology).
A10
#38 (4-0) George Washington: Potential Q1 wins: USF(n), Florida(n), @George Mason, @Dayton, @VCU, @ St Louis
TIL that the nickname “Colonials” is offensive. ANYHOW, so far, the Revolutionaries (but why is this one ok??) have won 3 buy game blowouts and 1 neutral site thriller against USF (who we will discuss further down). HC Chris Caputo was on Jim Larranaga’s staff at both GMU and Miami so the pedigree for success exists on the sideline as well.
After the USF win, the Revs’ non-con schedule has 1 more game against very strong opposition at Q1-A Florida in Miami. There are also 3 very tricky games against Murray St, Middle Tennessee and McNeese to contend with later this month in the Cayman Islands. All of this is of course before they dive into the grind that is an A10 conference slate which includes away trips to Dayton, VCU and St Louis (and multiple Q3 landmines).
With GW’s computer numbers, and the fact that they may get at least 6 attempts, I think 3 Q1 wins ought to get them where they need to go for an at large mid as long as they can avoid any Q4 losses.
At-large chances: 3 shrieking Frank Martins
#42 (2-2) VCU: Potential Q1 wins: USF(n), @George Mason, @St Louis, @Dayton, Vanderbilt,, St Mary’s
With apologies to Mack McCarthy… I really like Phil Martelli Jr. as the coach at VCU. Same as I liked Ryan Odom as the coach at VCU. Same as I liked Mike Rhoades as the coach at VCU. Same as I liked Will Wade as the coach at VCU. Same as I liked Shaka Smart as the coach at VCU. Same as I liked Anthony Grant as the coach at VCU. Same as I liked Jeff Capel as the coach at VCU. Yeah, you get the picture. The Rams are a well-oiled mid-major machine...
The non-con schedule is decent enough. They’ve already lost close games to Utah St and at NC State, but coming up are a Battle4Atlantis 1st round game against USF (then potentially Vanderbilt and/or St Mary’s) and a dangerous home game against New Mexico. Are you noticing a non-con scheduling trend here among decent mid major teams??? (they’re cooperating with each other) In league play they avoid GW on the road, which is probably good for their A10 title hopes but not great for their at large resume. 3 of their last 4 regular season games are @St Louis, home to George Mason and @Dayton. Assuming they get 5 more shots at Q1 wins, 3 ought to do it (as long as they avoid any disastrous home Q4 losses).
At-large chances: 3 shrieking Frank Martins
#47 (4-0) St Louis: Potential Q1 wins: (n) Santa Clara, @VCU, @Dayton, @George Mason
This is Robbie Avila’s fourth season of NCAA basketball. Which, because the rules are random and irrelevant, means he has between one and three years of eligibility left. Despite averaging 25 wins a season, White Boy Wilt has yet to make the NCAA tournament. Will that change this year? Maybe?? But probably not.
In addition to Avila, the Billikens have Josh Schertz steering the ship. Schertz was someone who I expected to take a more prestigious job following his tenure at Indiana St (and someone who I suspect WILL have a more prestigious job in the future). Schertz did pretty well pulling in high major talent from the transfer portal in the off season so the talent might be there for a run.
What concerns me most about St. Louis’ at large candidacy is their schedule. Their non-con includes fun (for sickos like us) matchups with Grand Canyon (which they already won), Santa Clara (at a neutral site) and San Francisco. But, because the other 2 are at home, only Santa Clara has the potential to end up as a Q1 win. That leaves 2 BRUTAL road trips to VCU and Dayton (they miss out on a trip to Foggy Bottom) as their only real prospects for picking up the sort of wins that a viable at large contender needs. Is it doable? With this team and this coach? Absolutely. But is it probable?
At-large chances: 2 shrieking Frank Martins
#74 (4-0) George Mason: Potential Q1 Wins: @Virginia Tech, @Geroge Washington, @VCU
Adding GMU to this list late because they keep winning (mostly by a lot) and their computer numbers keep improving, but good grief is there not much on their non-con schedule. There is a trip to Virgina Tech in December and then... uh... a potential neutral site matchup with Loyala Marymount?? Woof... Consequently, the Patriots’ margin for error is so thin that ANY Q4 loss would likely end their at large candidacy immediately.
At-large chances: 1 shrieking Frank Martin
#75 (3-1) Dayton: Potential Q1 wins: @Marquette, (n)Georgetown, (n)BYU/(n)Miami FL, (n)Virginia, @St Lous, @VCU, @George Mason, @GW
Much like my college girlfriend, I blame myself for giving Dayton so many chances to let me down (I’m glad you failed out of vet school, Jenny). Anthony Grant has averaged 23 wins in 7 (non covid) seasons in Ohio’s sixth largest city but has only made the NCAA tournament once (when it was held). Last year they were the country’s greatest tease with close losses to top 10 UNC and Iowa St followed by a blowout win against UCONN before completely falling apart down the stretch and missing the NCAAs. This was basically a mirror image of their 2021-22 season… which was basically a mirror image of their 2018-19 season… you get where I am going with this.
As always, Dayton has scheduled themselves an impressive non-con run of games. They couldn’t hang with Cincinnati earlier this month, but with the potential for huge wins listed above, the Fliers have a shot at getting some decent credit in the bank before A10 play begins. Based on past performances though, I won’t hold my breath.
At large chances: 2 shrieking Frank Martins
WCC
#57 (4-0) Santa Clara: Potential Q1 Wins: (n)St. Louis, @New Mexico, Gonzaga x2, St Mary’s x2, @San Francisco.
Herb Sendak must’ve had a feeling that this Broncos’ team was his best chance to return to the NCAAs because this non-con schedule is some grade A choice mid major craftmanship. McNeese (who they beat easily), Nevada (who they beat even easier), (n) St Louis, @New Mexico, (n) North Texas, (N) Loyola Chicago (and a trip to Xavier where they blew the Musketeers into the sun) are all there. It was as if he tried to schedule anyone he could think of who would possibly be good (and be willing to play them) in order to get as many decent wins on the resume as possible. And he might have the team to pull it off this year. And that is before a conference schedule that includes home and homes with Gonzaga and St Mary’s and finishes with a mind bendingly difficult stretch of Gonzaga, @San Francisco and @St Mary’s in what is probably the best the WCC has ever been or ever will be. The schedule is there to be a 3rd team out of the West Coast. The team is there to be a 3rd team out of the West Coast. And I am choosing to believe the Broncos get it done.
At large chances: 4 shrieking Frank Martins
#56 (4-1) San Franciso: Potential Q1 Wins: (n)Colorado, (n) Washington, (n) Mississippi St, @St Lous, St Mary’s x2, Gonzaga x2, @Santa Clara
I don’t know who the Dons’ AD is, but I’d like to shake his hand for creating the perfect mid major non-conference schedule. It is a work of art for any 2nd tier program looking to make the NCAA tournament in spite of being in a non-power 5 league. @memphis, (Big Sky favorite) Portland St, Bradley, (n) Minnesota, (n) Colorado, (n) Washington, (ASUN favorite) Noth Alabama, (n) Mississippi St, @St Louis, (n) Loyola Chicago mixed in with only 2 buy games all before diving in to the conference slate of a multiple bid WCC.
Having said that, San Francisco already lost to an aggressively average Memphis (much more Tiger invective to come) 2 weeks ago and that was not made up for during an unconvincing win against a so far very disappointing Bradley.
The schedule is right there and with so many cracks at Q1 wins on the horizon the Dons could make an at large case by going 3-6 or 4-5 against such quality opposition (while avoiding any losses to the dregs). But at this point they have yet to prove that they are capable of doing so.
At large chances: 2 shrieking Frank Martins
American
(There is no way to sugar coat this...The American is unmitigated ass in 2025. 98% chance it’s a 1 bid league unless South Florida picks up a few huge wins or Memphis’ season has a miracle turnaround.)
#39 (3-1) South Florida: Potential Q1 Win: @Oklahoma St, (n)VCU, (n)Vanderbilt, (n)VTech/StMary’s/CSU, @Alabama, @Memphis, @WichitaSt
USF is easy to root for. There is a fantastic human-interest story in the Bulls making the NCAAs so soon after the death of Amir Abdur Rahim. Likely realizing their league is trash beyond all comprehension they scheduled smartly in the non-con with games against Kennesaw (as a really cool tribute to their late coach), (n) George Washington, Utah St, and Charleston in addition to the games listed above. At minimum USF would need 2 or 3 Q1 wins with no Q4 losses in order to be considered. And while the Bulls have a coach that has succeeded elsewhere, decent guard play and can really score (101.25 per through 4 games) the next time they make the NCAAs as a member of the American would be their first. So, until they actually... succeed at winning, I am ok with continuing to be skeptical about their chances.
At large chances: 2 shrieking Frank Martins
#75 (1-2) Memphis: Potential Q1 wins: (n)Purdue, (n)Texas Tech/Wake Forest, Baylor, @Louisville, Vanderbilt, @MississippiSt, @Utah St, @WichitaSt, @USF
Ignore what I said at the top there... Memphis is only included in this writeup due to the sheer AUDACITY of their non-con run of games. Crafted from the sound of a cat's footsteps, the beard of a woman, the roots of a mountain, the breath of a fish, the sinews of a bear, and the spittle of a bird by the Fenrir dwarves under Mount Naglfar, Penny Hardaway managed to put together the Chinese water torture chamber of basketball schedules. When you tack on games against San Franscisco, UNLV, Southern Illinois and (sneaky good) New Orleans all before the new year you can really appreciate how terrifyingly impressive what the Tigers have done here is.
UNFORTUNATELY... Memphis is a total mess of transfers, poor leadership and personality conflicts, so none of this marvelousness is going to matter because they’ll be lucky to finish top 5 in a historically bad American. Yes, that was a belligerent run on sentence, no I will not be accepting notes on my writing style.
At large chances: zero shrieking Frank Martins
MWC
Half this league is bolting to the Pac(??) next year, in what I am convinced may end up being a lateral move. Will the next Pac league be a power conference? I don’t know. I am not Jesus. I can’t see the future. But what I do know is that change angers and confuses me, which means I am not going to include SDSU/Boise/CSU/USU in this list. So, all that’s left is...
NO ONE. New Mexico and Nevada and UNLV and Grand Canyon are not good basketball teams in 2025.
Rapid Fire Pipe Dreams
Aka they’d better win 30 games with no Q4 losses
#50 (2-0) Liberty: Potential Q1 wins: @NCSt, @Dayton
OTR hates Liberty and deservedly so. But they run CUSA. The Fundies could win that league by 3 games and not even get out of 2nd gear.
#54 (2-1) Akron: Potential Q1 wins: none
The Zips are feisty. And probably shoud win the MAC going away. Their only loss was to Purdue. Unfortunately for them that was the only Q1 game on their entire schedule. And while this team certainly looks capable of winning @Tulane and Murray St and then smashing through the MAC with only 1 more loss. That will absolute NOT happen.
#68 (4-0) Northern Iowa: Potential Q1 wins: @St Mary’s
Obligatory MVC inclusion. I am not even convinced Ben Jacobsons’ team is the best in the Missouri Valley. But they are unbeaten and they have the best computer metrics so why the hell not? It’s been 10 years since they last made the NCAAs and 16! Since the Ali Farokmanesh shot against Kansas.
