365 to 1: February 9th Update
The Countdown Continues.
Previously on 365 to 1:
BoilerUp89
On Wednesday, the WAC announced that they were suing outgoing member Utah Valley University for their $1 million exit fee and also stated that as Utah Valley is not currently a member in "good-standing", the Wolverines are not permitted to participate in conference championship events or appear on conference sponsored television, radio, or other media. In effect, the WAC has served notice that if Utah Valley doesn't pay up, then the Wolverines will not have an opportunity to win the conference's auto-bid.
For Utah Valley this is particularly unfortunate since the Wolverines currently are tied for the lead in the WAC regular season standings at 8-3 and are considering the conference's best team this season by most that follow the WAC. Despite the WAC's very public announcements this past week, we are keeping Utah Valley off the eliminated list as in our opinion there is still time for Utah Valley University to correct the issue. Should it become apparent that won't happen, the Wolverines may be eliminated at that time. However, it's also worth noting they are a top 100 team on KenPom, Torvik, Torvik's Wins Above the Bubble, and the NCAA's NET rankings. The Wolverines are between 79th and 89th in these four rankings, a mark that is unlikely to result in an at-large bid but also good enough that I'm not ready to eliminate them from at-large consideration with a month of basketball left to play.
Meanwhile among the conferences that definitely aren't allowing all their members to participate in the post-season, there were no eliminations this past week. Western Illinois came the closest to joining the eliminated crowd. Had Eastern Illinois not beaten Tennessee Tech on Saturday the Leathernecks would already be team #360. Instead, Western Illinois received a temporary stay of execution until at least Tuesday when they play ... Eastern Illinois.
360 Teams Remain!
5 Teams Eliminated
Conference Races
America East Conference
Conference games: 16
Teams participating in tournament: 8 of 9
5th - New Hampshire Wildcats (4-5)
6th - Albany Great Danes (4-6)
7th - Bryant Bulldogs (4-6)
8th - Maine Black Bears (4-6)
9th - Binghamton Bearcats (1-9)
Maine and Albany won mid-week to move up to 4 conference wins. Bryant then defeated Maine on Saturday to pull back into a tie for 6th. It looks like Binghamton is the most likely candidate to be left out of the America East field as they now sit three games back with just six to play. If they are going to make a move, it probably has to start this week. The Bearcats host third place Vermont on Thursday before turning around to host Albany on Saturday.
Never Made the Tournament Club Members: Maine, New Hampshire, UMass Lowell, NJIT
American Conference
Conference games: 18
Teams participating in tournament: 10 of 13
9th - Tulane Green Wave (4-6)
10th - Rice Owls (4-7)
11th - North Texas Mean Green (4-7)
12th - East Carolina Pirates (2-8)
13th - UTSA Roadrunners (0-11)
Rice defeated North Texas in overtime 86-83 on Wednesday to grab a one game lead in the standings and the head to head tiebreaker over UNT. North Texas rebounded with a much needed victory over cellar dweller UTSA on Saturday. East Carolina and UTSA have continued to lose.
UTSA and ECU play on Wednesday. ECU will then play Rice next Saturday while Tulane travels to UAB on Sunday.
Never Made the Tournament Club Members: None
Atlantic Sun
Conference games: 18
Teams participating in tournament: 10 of 12
T6th - West Georgia Wolves (5-7)*
8th - Jacksonville Dolphins (4-8)
9th - Stetson Hatters (4-8)
10th - North Florida Ospreys (4-8)
11th - Florida Gulf Coast Eagles (4-8)
12th - North Alabama Lions (2-9)
*ineligible for NCAAT
Eastern Kentucky won twice this past week to move out of 11th and into a tie for 6th place. North Florida got a win on Thursday to move into the big tie at four wins and temporarily place themselves above the cut-line due to tiebreakers.
North Alabama plays three home games this week (Monday makeup game against 2nd place Central Arkansas, Wednesday against West Georgia, and Sunday against EKU). They need to start winning this week or the gap will be too big to realistically make up in the final two weeks of ASUN play. The four 4-8 teams each play two games against each other this week on Wednesday/Saturday. In all probability this is the most important week for the ASUN race.
Never Made the Tournament Club Members: North Alabama, Queens, Central Arkansas, Bellarmine, West Georgia
Atlantic Coast Conference
Conference games: 18
Teams participating in tournament: 15 of 18
14th - Boston College Eagles (2-8)
15th - Wake Forest Demon Deacons (2-8)
16th - Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (2-9)
17th - Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2-9)
18th - Pittsburgh Panthers (2-9)
The race for 15th in the ACC looks to be between these five teams as everyone else sits at least two wins in front of this crowd. Surprise, nobody in this group won a game this week.
Georgia Tech hosts Wake Forest on Wednesday. Notre Dame hosts the Yellow Jackets on Saturday. Pitt has the most challenging week playing the two ACC blue bloods.
Never Made the Tournament Club Members: None
Big West
Conference games: 20
Teams participating in tournament: 8 of 11
8th - Cal Poly Mustangs (5-8)
9th - Long Beach State Beach (4-8)
10th - UC Riverside Highlanders (3-10)
11th - Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners (2-11)
Fullerton won twice this week to go from five wins to seven and solidify their position in the Big West standings. UC San Diego tried to do the same but couldn't beat Hawaii in the late night Saturday game so they sit on six wins. Meanwhile, Cal Poly, Long Beach State, Riverside, and Bakersfield all went 0-2 this week.
All four of the bottom teams are also projected to go 0-2 this upcoming week as they play top 7 teams on Thursday and Saturday. If any of them manage to eke out a win, it will help their cause greatly.
Never Made the Tournament Club Members: UC Riverside
Conference USA
Conference games: 18
Teams participating in tournament: 10 of 12
9th - UTEP Miners (5-8)
10th - Florida International Panthers (4-8)
11th - New Mexico State Aggies (4-9)
12th - Delaware Blue Hens (3-9)
FIU & New Mexico State won on Wednesday (FIU in overtime) to get to 4 wins in conference play. This pulled them even with UTEP in the win column until UTEP defeated New Mexico State in overtime on Saturday to pull back ahead. Delaware's surprising overtime win over Middle Tennessee State on Saturday kept them within striking distance of a CUSA tournament berth.
Never Made the Tournament Club Members: None
Ivy League
Conference games: 14
Teams participating in tournament: 4 of 8
3rd - Penn Quakers (4-4)
4th - Dartmouth Big Green (4-4)
5th - Cornell Big Red (4-4)
6th - Princeton Tigers (4-4)
7th - Columbia Lions (3-5)
8th - Brown Bears (1-7)
As expected Brown lost to Yale on Friday, but on Saturday the rest of the Ivy League appeared committed to everyone finishing .500 in conference play and enacting weird tiebreakers. Penn and Dartmouth hold the precarious tiebreakers right now.
Brown remains alive going into this week. They can reach 7-7 and even with the middle of the Ivy cluster being guaranteed some wins just by virtue of playing each other, scenarios still exist where none of them reach 7 wins. Still, with this being a double play weekend, the Brown Bears should really try to beat Harvard and Dartmouth if they want to be alive come next week's update.
Penn/Columbia, Princeton/Cornell, Penn/Cornell, and Princeton/Columbia will be important games this weekend.
Never Made the Tournament Club Members: None
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
Conference games: 20
Teams participating in tournament: 10 of 13
7th - Mount St. Mary's (7-8)
8th - Iona Gaels (6-8)
9th - Manhattan Jaspers (6-9)
10th - Sacred Heart Pioneers (6-9)
11th - Niagara Purple Eagles (3-11)
12th - Canisius Golden Griffins (3-11)
13th - Rider Broncs (2-12)
This is the last year of the MAAC (pronounced May-ack!). The conference announced Thursday night they would be rebranding with a new name and logo (presumably to avoid confusion with the MAC - pronounced Mack).
Niagara beat up Canisius on Tuesday in a game that was watched by MNW. I'm glad I'm helping enable his addiction. Unfortunately for the Purple Eagles they still find themselves 3 wins behind the cut-off line as Manhattan defeated Sacred Heart on Saturday.
On Friday, Niagara plays Manhattan while Canisius plays Iona. On Sunday, they switch opponents. Meanwhile Rider plays Mount St. Mary's on Friday and Sacred Heart on Sunday. If the bottom three get swept this week, the MAAC race for 10th will be just about over (Niagara and Canisius might still be able to just catch and win tiebreakers against Sacred Heart depending on what the Pioneers do against St. Peter's on Friday).
Never Made the Tournament Club Members: Quinnipiac, Merrimack, Sacred Heart
Mid-American Conference
Conference games: 18
Teams participating in tournament: 8 of 13
8th - Buffalo Bulls (4-7)
9th - Ball State Cardinals (3-7)
10th - Northern Illinois Huskies (3-7)
11th - Central Michigan Chippewas (3-8)
12th - Eastern Michigan Eagles (3-8)
13th - Western Michigan Broncos (2-8)
Bowling Green put some distance between themselves and the cutline on Tuesday by defeating Ball State to get to 5 wins. The rest of the bottom feeders lost on Tuesday except NIU who discovered the only winning move was not to play. With the MAC/Sun Belt challenge on Saturday that was the only movement in MACtion this week.
Important games this week include Buffalo at Ball State, Northern Illinois at Central Michigan, and Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan.
Never Made the Tournament Club Members: None
Northeast Conference
Conference games: 18
Teams participating in tournament: 8 of 10
T2nd - Mercyhurst Lakers (7-5)*
T2nd - Le Moyne Dolphins (7-5)*
7th - New Haven Chargers (5-6)*^
8th - Saint Francis (4-6)
9th - Wagner Seahawks (3-8)
10th - Chicago State Cougars (2-9)
^ineligible for NEC tournament
*ineligible for NCAA tournament
Chicago State won a game! That's two out of the last three. We have signs of life in Chicago. FDU also won two games this week to move on up in the standings.
Chicago State and Saint Francis play Monday in a makeup game. League play resumes its Thursday/Saturday schedule after that. Wagner and Chicago State face each other on the last day of NEC regular season play. They should both try to get some wins before then though or they may be reliant on how the rest of the NEC stacks up for tiebreakers if Chicago State wins that game.
Never Made the Tournament Club Members: Stonehill, Chicago State, Le Moyne, Mercyhurst, New Haven
Ohio Valley Conference
Conference games: 20
Teams participating in tournament: 8 of 11
7th - Little Rock Trojans (6-8)
8th - Eastern Illinois Panthers (6-8)
9th - Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles (5-9)
10th - Southern Indiana Screamin' Eagles (2-12)
11th - Western Illinois Leathernecks (0-14)
Despite starting OVC play at 0-14, Western Illinois remains technically alive as there are scenarios where they can win a tiebreaker against Little Rock or Eastern Illinois should the Leathernecks somehow win out and one of those schools lose out (Tennessee Tech would also need to lose out). The Leathernecks next loss however will eliminate them. They host Eastern Illinois on Tuesday and Little Rock on Thursday.
Southern Indiana isn't in much better shape as they are chasing two teams playing the Leathernecks this week while they are scheduled to play second place Tennessee State and fellow OVC bubble team Tennessee Tech.
Tennessee Tech had a mixed week. They beat Tennessee State but then gave away their positive momentum by losing to Eastern Illinois.
Never Made the Tournament Club Members: Lindenwood, Tennessee Martin, Western Illinois, and Southern Indiana
Southland Conference
Conference games: 22
Teams participating in tournament: 8 of 12
8th - East Texas A&M Lions (5-10)
9th - Incarnate Word Cardinals (5-10)
10th - Southeastern Louisiana Lions (4-11)
11th - Houston Christian Huskies (4-11)
12th - Northwestern State Demons (4-11)
Incarnate Word won on Monday to temporarily pull ahead in the standings. East Texas A&M lost on Monday but won the midweek make up game against Northwestern State on Wednesday and then repeated that victory over the Demons on Saturday (yes - the Lions and Demons played back to back games this week). Southeastern Louisiana beat the Huskies 55-47 on Saturday to bunch up the pack like a yellow flag at Daytona with 2 laps to go.
It's a big week for SELA. They play Incarnate Word tonight and Northwestern State on Saturday.
Never Made the Tournament Club Members: Incarnate Word, Texas Rio Grande Valley, East Texas A&M
The List
365 - New Haven Chargers (transitioning)
364 - West Georgia Wolves (transitioning)
363 - Mercyhurst Lakers (transitioning)
362 - Le Moyne Dolphins (transitioning)
361 - Coppin State Eagles (APR)
