Michigan State Spartans 2026 Predictions: Guess Who's Back, Back Again?
Fat Pitzgerald's back. Tell a friend.
About Yesterday's Games
England 2, DR Congo 1
Kind of...: I have thought way too hard about CFB/FIFA comparisons. But one I am most convinced captures something is that England is the Notre Dame of international soccer. If you're nodding your head at all, then yesterday makes perfect sense. Congo earned their goal, defended like hell, got some breaks, and seemed like they had a real shot. Then it seemed like they could get it to extra time. Then Harry Kane struck a shot that Lou Holtz would have lisped into legend as "touched by Touchdown Jesus" or some similar shit.
England won. They earned the win. They deserved to win. Congo was admirable in defeat. Soccer is soccer. Have with with Mexico in Estadio Azteca, limeys.
Belgium 3, Senegal 2
Kind of...: Sorry to be brutal, but Senegal blew this. Belgium subbed out Kevin freaking de Bruyne trailing 2-0. That should tell you all you need to know about how things were going. I had this nailed. Belgium looked old and unimaginative. Senegal looked like a team that had been sharpened in losses to Norway and France. And then they did the soccer equivalent of switching to a prevent defense. Just to add to the stomach punch, they gave up the winner in the dying moments of extra time. Given how things had gone, they would've been an underdog in a shootout, but, still, those can be weird. And with the US missing Balogun (see below), Senegal would've been a live option to make the quarters. Few things are more distasteful than letting mediocre European sides off the hook.
USA 2, Bosnia and Herzegovina 0
Kind of...: Okay, I was super into the game last night, I'm pumped for the win, and think they still have close to even odds to beat Belgium. I, national soccer fan, am happy. So/but, here's the contrary take:
Bosnia and Herzegovina is not very good. Yeah, they drew with Canada. But their advancement owed itself mostly to getting drawn with Qatar, who, besides Tunisia, might've been the worst team at the event. (Other teams had worse goal differentials, but also were in far better groups.) I sincerely believe that they are worse than anybody the US played in the group stage. And FIFA rankings support that take. Loudly.
Second, even with the win, the US is still now only in the round of 16, i.e., the same spot they went out in 2022, 2014, 2010, and, yes, 1994, the last time they hosted the event. This IS the best USMNT (#15 in FIFA rankings) that any of us have seen. But there are about 20-25 teams of the "R16 capable, maybe make the quarters with the right breaks" caliber. Belgium (#9 in FIFA rankings) is another of those sides. So was Senegal (#18).
Losing Balogun was not the right break. But Pochettino has proven himself and, despite the youth of this team, nothing is guaranteed going forward. If it doesn't happen Monday night, is there any reason to think it will be more likely to happy in four years in Spain/Portugal/Morocco?
There's too much luck in soccer generally, and way too much in the World Cup, to reach grand conclusions. The state of American soccer is fantastic. It's pretty easy to read between the lines of informed non-American commentators and realize the praise is less faint this time around. And I'm not saying the US shouldn't rest until they're top-8. That's a hard ceiling to crack (but there's Morocco at #6...). But if you're old enough to remember the original "dos a cero" in the early morning in 2002; if you remember feeling like we should've beaten Ghana in 2010; if you remember realizing that we shouldn't have, but, thanks to Tim Howard, could have beaten a top 5-8 Belgium in 2014, then you know how much it sucks that the US will be without their best finisher because some overeager VAR disphit decided to go Zapruder film on a normal soccer play with an awkward looking finish.
But you also know that this side might be good enough to win anyway. Which hasn't been true before (hell, remember how obvious it was that the US had no chance against the Netherlands just four years ago), and you're not above feeling like fortune needs to even out a little bit.
Today's Matchups
Spain v Austria
Inglewood, CA. 3:00 PM ET/2:00 GTZ.
Kind of...: If Paraguay can beat Germany, then an injury-riddled Spanish side isn't completely safe. Still, this should not be in doubt. Perfect draw for Spain to do some tinkering and see who's fit enough to contribute.
MaximumSam: Spain comes hard with Paella Valenciana. Replace the seafood you may have had in a paella with rabbit and snails and other goodies. I'm seeing profit in the bunnies currently tearing up my garden. But Austria also brings it with the Wiener Schnitzel, a thin cut of veal or chicken that is battered and fried. Come on, this is B1G country. You had me at battered and fried.
Portugal v Croatia
Montreal, Canada. 7:00 PM ET/6:00 GTZ.
Kind of...: With Modric vs. Ronaldo, it will feel like Real Madrid Old-Timer's Day, but this is intriguing beyond that. Setting aside the 5-0 win over Uzbekistan, Portugal has one goal in 180 minutes, and Roberto Martinez seems to think that is fine. Sure, it's not easy to make Ronaldo a sub, but plenty of coaches would have made that move already, and a craft Croatia side has to happy that he hasn't. You can tell Croatia is in a better spot because they said, "hell, let's do it" to running wide open with England, took their lumps, and then won their next two, including over a up-and-coming Ghana side. That said, there's so much quality on Portugal that if Ronaldo stays out of the way, they should win. But how likely is that? '
All the same, Vegas likes Portugal a lot more than I do. And they did look respectable vs. Colombia, who's quite good.
MaximumSam: Portugal's national dish is more of an ingredient in bacalhau, or salted cod. I guess they use salted cod like we use Mike's Red Hot, put that shit in everything. Croatia had a few options but I'm going with Zagorski Štrukli, a baked cheese pastry. I'm not turning away cheese pastries of any sort.
Switzerland v Algeria
Vancouver, Canada. 11:00 PM ET/10:00 GTZ.
Kind of...: I've liked Switzerland's chances better than most all along and correctly called them, not Canada, winning their group. But that doesn't mean they're fun to watch. For a team that scored seven goals, it's not breathtaking stuff. The 3-3 Algeria/Austria draw gave us more thrills than Group B did in its entirely. Nonetheless, Switzerland IS a heavy favorite, deserve to be, and would have a solid shot against Colombia (and excellent shot against Ghana). But Algeria earned plenty of good will. If you're up this late, might as well roll with the underdog.
MaximumSam: It's 100 degrees outside, so Switzerland's national dish of Swiss cheese fondue doesn't sound as appealing as it might on a cool football Saturday. Algeria responds with couscous, but Morocco already claimed couscous and nobody can like couscous that much. So up next is Karantika, which is apparently a tart made out of chickpeas. Not sure that sounds good in any season, so dip me in some cheese.
