World Cup Recaps and Previews, Monday June 29: No Goal Differentials, No Math. Win or Go Home.
Three traditional powerhouses today with Brazil, Germany, and the Netherlands. Anyone taking an upset pick?
About Yesterday's Games
Kind of...: I messed up. When doing my scenarios I entered South Korea's goal differential instead of Iran's so I was wrong in how I treated the Algeria/Austria match. Austria couldn't advance losing by 1 and I said they could. It turned out not to matter (see below), but I regret the mistake and realize that this drops my QIAALI (Quality of Information Above Alexi Lalas Inanity) score by 6%.
Were into the knockouts now. No more math!
Croatia 2, Ghana 1
Kind of...: Draw might have been the more appropriate result, but Croatia has been nothing if not opportunistic the last 1o years or so. Croatia gets Portugal; Ghana gets Columbia.
England 2, Panama 0
Kind of...: Scoreless at halftime, but quality won out. Panama was the only team at the event not to score a goal. Yay, CONCACAF! Honestly, though, there was some bad luck involved. Their cumulative expected goals was just shy of 2. And they only surrendered 4 goals. A rather competent display overall. Definitely not the worst team at the event.
England gets Congo and have not looked the same the last 180 minutes. With either Ecuador or Mexico waiting in R16 in the altitude of Estadio Azteca, they have a tricky path ahead.
Colombia 0, Portugal 0
Kind of...: Much more entertaining that the scorelines suggests (Colombia won 1.70-.93 in expected goals), it is appropriate the Colombia won the group. Portugal is off to face Croatia in a winnable, but tricky, match, with Spain likely waiting in R16. Colombia gets Ghana and then the Switzerland/Algeria winner. Winning this group really mattered.
DR Congo 3, Uzbekistan 1
Kind of...: Congo surrendered an early goal, has a tying goal disallowed, and needing a win, it was starting to get nervy. Then the floodgates opened. Goals at 68, 78, and 90 +1 saw Congo through in what was, frankly, a commanding performance. England awaits.
Argentina 3, Jordan 1
Kind of...: Messi came off the bench dispensing his blessings to all present. Scored on a penalty, so now has 6 in the tournament. Argentina gets a favorable draw: Cape Verde and the Egypt/Austria winner. My spidey-sense has been telling me that Argentina is overvalued, but it's irrelevant. They can (should) make the quarters without having to have face a top 20 team in their first five matches.
Algeria 3, Austria 3
Kind of...: Not only did I make the calculation mistake above, I was also GLORIOUSLY WRONG in worrying that this would be super conservative given that a draw would see both throw. What a fantastic match. Austria scored first, but Algeria drew even just before halftime. Austria went up in the 55th minute; Algeria leveled five minutes later. With Iran likely resigned to their fate, Algeria strikes at 90 +3. Facing elimination, Austria miraculously grabbed a necessary point at 90 +6. Just thrilling. Austria holds second and gets France (gulp). Algeria will face Switzerland.
Today's Matchup
South Africa v Canada
Inglewood, CA. 3:00 PM ET/2:00 GTZ.
Kind of...: Canada's loss to Switzerland cost them the chance to play in front of home crowds in R32 and R16. Getting to play South Africa should work as a bit of a consolation prize. Not looking to slag Bafana Bafana: they played optimistic soccer against Czechia and South Korea. However, we all know the win over South Korea was mostly because of an egregious error by the South Korea keeper.
Canada was a bit unlucky to lose to Switzerland. And, even accounting for the fact that six goals came against Qatar, Canada has also been pretty open thus far. Let's hope both teams continue to press for advantages and we get a free flowing game to kick off the knockout rounds.
MaximumSam: Poutine v. Bobotie. Poutine is pretty straightforward, fries and cheese curds smothered in gravy. I've never heard of bobotie - it is apparently a bit like a shepherd's pie, but add some fruit in with the ground meat and sub out potatoes and sub in an egg custard over the top. I can see myself eating that.
