Which 5 Star Quarterback Will Be The Next Iamaleava?
It's July, which means next month is August, which means I just updated my college fantasy football dynasty league watchlist. For that reason, talent is currently on my mind.
I'm stuck with the dilemma of whether or not to drop Malachi Nelson, a 5 star quarterback from the 2023 class who committed to USC, didn't get playing time after Caleb Williams quit on the team, then actually quit the Trojans to go to Boise State. He was then beaten out for the starting job by Maddux Madsen, whose level of play I used as a point in favor of Ashton Jeanty winning the Heisman (i.e. look at the great stat lines this quarterback is putting up despite all the things you see on film, Jeanty is carrying him too!).
He's now at UTEP. No 5 star quarterback ever really washes out until they're out of eligibility, but my concern is that if he isn't named the starter by the end of camp he'll quit the team and cost me a roster spot again.
Anyway, this all got me thinking. When you saw Nico Iamaleava's name come up during his initial recruitment, learned that Tennessee and Florida were among those involved in a nasty bidding war and then pronounced his name kind of like "I'mma leave," you thought "surely there's no way this guy stays at Tennessee." And sure enough, he's in the Big Ten now where he replaces fellow 2023 5* QB Dante Moore (now an Oregon Duck).
In the '21 through '24 classes, there have been 18 consensus five star quarterbacks. Eleven have transferred so far with two (Nelson and Sam Huard) on their third FBS stop. J.J. McCarthy and Arch Manning were the only 5* QBs in their class not to transfer, while the 2022 class saw Drew Allar, Cade Klubnik and (oddly) Ty Simpson stay with their respective schools until the present day. The 2024 class is young and small, but Julian Sayin already left Alabama for Ohio State.
2025's class features a quintet of consensus 5* signal callers. There is no way they play their entire career for their current school. Who's the most likely to leave?
Well, it's not Bryce Underwood. Michigan demonstrated their need for a quarterback by being unbelievably bad at the position last year and they've ensured he'll have no competition. As long as Larry Ellison's girlfriend continues to make him happy and support Michigan, they can fend off the highest bidders. It brings me no joy to report that Underwood is the most likely to stay.
For some reason I'm thinking the next least likely is Keelon Russell of Alabama. They've only had Julian Sayin leave, and Russell is essentially his replacement. Kalen DeBoer may be willing to tie his future at Alabama to this guy but that doesn't necessarily mean he'll play him right away. After all, for some reason Ty Simpson has just been sitting there all these years.
Next up is Deuce Knight of Auburn. The Poop Cavalier is expected to back up former Oklahoma 5* QB Jackson Arnold, and the reason I think he's more likely to leave than Russell is because Hugh Freeze is an inherently unstable coaching situation. Bringing in a certified bozo at QB1 in Jackson Arnold will make it inherently more unstable, and this is an Auburn fan/donor base that was endlessly horny to fire Gus Malzahn as he was beating Nick Saban on a regular basis.
Husan Longstreet gets the next spot only because he's from California and may be more likely to stay at USC. Two of the 11 transfers I mentioned were out of USC, and beyond the consensus 5* ranks you'll find that college football is littered with former Trojans quarterbacks...
...but not as much as with former Buckeye quarterbacks. Tavien St. Clair, despite being from Ohio, is the single most likely to transfer due to the sheer volume of QB attrition Ohio State goes through and the fact that expectations for Julian Sayin are sky high. It's a coin toss between him and Longstreet to be perfectly honest, but I'll be shocked if either of them makes it to the end of eligibility or the pros without a transfer.
