What To Predict When You're Predicting: #3 Illinois Fighting Illini
And out of the Balkans Region, the Illini?
How's the first-round matchup look?
HoustonBoiler: Illinois gets 14-seed Penn and noted former Iowa coach (and former Penn player) Fran McCaffrey. I, for one, welcome the return of the FranCon Alert System and the possibility of a full meltdown. This game will feature a lot of offense and thus should be fun to watch.
BoilerUp89: Penn was not the best Ivy League team this season. They weren't even the second best Ivy League team this season. Two overtime victories in a conference tournament will send you dancing though. While it feels like T.J. Power used up his shot making ability in the Ivy tournament, maybe there's a bit left in the tank to take down the Illini. I doubt it though.
AlmaOtter: Sigh. This fucking guy again? Yeah, I'll admit that I begrudgingly enjoy (and HATE!) the narrative, but it should be a straightforward game. Our 3pt shooting has been abysmal in the last few games and this would be a nice spot to reclaim that piece of our offense. And, as I've noted before: you can learn Serbo-Croatian, but you can't teach tall. And the Illini are tall as fuuuuck.
How's the overall draw?
BoilerUp89: Poopy. Out of the 2 and 3 seeds from the Big Ten, Illinois is the one that has to play two other national contenders just to reach the Final Four and one of them in their home city.
AlmaOtter: Yeah, it's not great. I maintain that the South is the Region of Death. 4 of the 8 Peach Basket teams are here, plus a very good Nebraska squad at #4. The Illini spite narratives are strong as well. Fran in R64, potentially a 2005 title game rematch of sorts with North Carolina (spits), and more than likely our good friend Kelvin Samson and Houston in the second weekend.
What's the best case for this team?
BoilerUp89: Is it national championship? That requires something like the Baylor run in 2021 as the all offense, not-elite defense routinely falls a bit short. I know the Illini are in the Peach BasketTM, but like Purdue their defense leaves something to be desired. Maybe it's enough that their offense could carry them in a down year, but with so many other true national title contenders that feels like a stretch. I'll say national runner-up.
AlmaOtter: argh. don't make me do this. Who wrote these questions? (it was me. I'm an idiot.) Ok. I can't take another R32 loss. Best case is our 3s drop, we run the table, and we make a Final Four against some pretty spectacular teams.
What's the worst that could happen?
BoilerUp89: Illinois loses to Fran, Bruce Pearl becomes dictator of college basketball, and Illinois receives the death penalty.
AlmaOtter: I didn't mean that level of worst when I wrote the question! Goddamn, BU89! Worst case is beating Fran and losing to UNC in some embarrassing fashion.
Are there any fun storylines, weird esoterica, or strange historical sidebars to add here?
BoilerUp89: The Illini have the third most NCAA Tournament wins without a championship (5 behind Purdue and 1 behind Gonzaga). They are also tied for the third most bids without a championship (4 behind Texas, 1 behind Notre Dame, and tied with Purdue). But wait - there's more! Only Houston has more Final Fours than Illinois without a championship.
