What to Predict When You're Predicting: Purdue Boilermakers

How's the first-round matchup look?

Kind of...: Uh, manageable. Queens' best win all year was the ASUN title game over #152 Central Arkansas on a neutral court. And in that game, they let PG Camren Hunter go for 49 points. Hunter couldn't crack Wisconsin's rotation last year. I think Braden Smith might have a good day.

HoustonBoiler: Thank you Kind Of... for that bit of intel. Basically, Purdue just needs to maintain the level of play they found last week in Chicago. If they can do that or come close, Queens' should not be a problem. Plus Braden Smith can put breaking the assist record in his review mirror and focus on a deep tourney run while dishing lots of assists.

BoilerUp89: Pretty good. Queens' defense is bad and they give up a ton of offensive rebounds on top of that. Their offense isn't awful - they are comfortable letting it fly from three and make a decent percentage, but they will have to outscore the Boilers. Outscoring the #1 offense in the country is easier said than done especially since Purdue doesn't rely on threes but if Queens is going to compete they have to make lots of threes.

How's the overall draw?

Kind of...: Lotta talk about Mizzou getting a home game in the second round, but that overstates the nature of NCAA tournament crowds. And no guaranteed the Tigers get by Miami (FL)...and old Purdue friend Malik Reneau. Yeah, so either second round game has it's #narrative. After that, BYU has been slumping without Saunders, Gonzaga probably won't have Huff, and Texas needed everything in the bag to win a slugfest against NC State. Purdue has a draw to be envied.

HoustonBoiler: It's a nice draw, no doubt. Plus the committee even gave Purdue an extra day by scheduling their first game on Friday, which was nice given they just played 4 games in 4 days. However, Purdue still needs to win the games and that means rebounding, limiting their turnovers, focus and intensity on defense, and making shots. Pretty much what I have been saying all season. Otherwise, Purdue will surely find the banana peel and early return to West Lafayette.

BoilerUp89: Pretty good. This Purdue team is capable of losing to Miami, Missouri, or Gonzaga but not if the Boilermakers play their best game. I'm not sure Purdue can guard Dybantsa but BYU lost plenty of games where he has been the best player on the floor. Arizona is a monster 1 seed but most of the 1 seeds are and if Purdue gets lucky the Wildcats will lose before they have to face them.

What's the best case for this team?

Kind of...: I mean they just beat Michigan on a neutral court, so their best case seems to be winning it all, ideally by getting revenge on Iowa State in the national semis before dispatching Duke. Seems unlikely, but they're a two seed, so by inference, only a few teams are likelier champs.

HoustonBoiler: National championship, but they will need to continue to play their best basketball, like they just did in Chicago. Can they keep it going for another 6 games? Stay tuned.

And since Kind Of... brought it up, there is definitely a revenge tour angle in that Purdue could beat wisconsin in the Elite 8 (beat Purdue in the final game of the season and, for old timers like me, beat Purdue in the 2000 West Regional Final), Iowa State in the Final Four (whipped Purdue in Mackey in December), and UConn in the Championship game (beat Purdue in 2024 Championship game).

BoilerUp89: Well, beyond the fact that UConn isn't going to be in the championship game. On paper the best case is national championship. If you have the nation's best offense and are capable of beating Michigan, you can beat just about anybody. I don't think it's particularly likely - this team reminds me of previous iterations of Brad Underwood Illini teams - but on paper the best case does exist.

What's the worst that could happen?

Kind of...: Well, Queens isn't from New Jersey, so the first round upset seems unlikely. So, yeah, the worst is probably losing to Mizzou in controversial fashion, causing Gene Keady to flash back to true round NCAA games from the 80s, and have a health incident.

HoustonBoiler: Purdue could revert to the style of play that resulted in losses in 7 of their final 13 games of the regular season. They could probably still get by Queens', but would likely not make it out of the first weekend.

BoilerUp89: Braden Smith fails to break the assist record.

Are there any fun storylines, weird esoterica, or strange historical sidebars to add here?

Kind of...: Braden Smith has a custom Cybertruck!

Fun is relative, but in the 80s and early 90s, Purdue went seven straight tournament appearances losing to worse seeded teams. And I don't mean losing to a 5 as a 4 (3 vs. 6 twice, 6 vs. 11 twice, 2 vs 10, 7 vs. 10, and, most painfully, 1 vs. 4). Between 1980 and 1999 they didn't pull a seed upset in 14 appearances. Since 1980 they only have four wins when having a worse seed differential of more than 1 (i.e., not counting 8/9 or 4/5 games). Also, Purdue is 0-9 vs. #1 seeds. So...the Boilers have gotten upset a fair amount and don't really pull upsets. Nice overall profile fellas. Real March Magic.

BoilerUp89: Purdue has the most NCAA Tournament wins without a tournament championship. It'd be nice if Purdue could lose that title by removing themselves from the list.