What to Predict When You're Predicting: #5 Wisconsin Badgers

How's the first-round matchup look?

BoilerUp89: Really, really good. High Point won 30 games so I don't want to completely disregard them and this isn't last year's High Point team which found themselves overmatched in their tournament game against a Big Ten team. However, this High Point team clicks by creating live ball turnovers and turning them into points. Wisconsin literally has the lowest offensive steal percentage in the nation. It's a perfect foil to a High Point team that doesn't do a ton else at an elite level. If Wisconsin plays an average game they should win. If they play below average, High Point does have some shooters that might be able to knock down enough shots to pull off the upset.

HoustonBoiler: I also like wisconsin to win their first round game for the reasons BoilerUp89 has already mentioned.

Kind of...: Hard to argue with the logic above. An objective fan would certainly break down the matchups, note strengths and weaknesses, compare High Point (unfavorably) against the other 12 seeds, etc.

However, I've been infected by my proximity to all these BoilerBots, so...WE'RE DOOMED! WISCONSIN IS GETTING UPSET! DID YOU KNOW WISCONSIN IS 1-4 ALL-TIME AS THE 5 SEED IN 5/12 GAMES? IT'S TRUE! WHY EVEN WATCH???

How's the overall draw?

BoilerUp89: Wisconsin is a 5 seed so the overall draw was never going to be great, but Arkansas is a tough 4 playing really well at the moment and Arizona may just be the best team in the tournament field. That's not to doom and gloom all over Wisconsin's chances because this Badgers team won't be cowering in fear but there were kinder potential draws out there.

HoustonBoiler: The potential second round matchup with Arkansas is a landmine. If the Good-gers, the ones who beat Michigan and Purdue, show up, wisconsin can reach the Sweet 16 for a potential matchup with Arizona. Otherwise, the Bad-gers won't make it out of the first weekend.

Kind of...: Wisconsin is #teamChaos/#teamVariance. They beat Michigan, Illinois, and Purdue on the road (and Illinois a second time on a neutral court)...and were blown out by Oregon and lost to USC at home. The draw does not matter.

What's the best case for this team?

BoilerUp89: Final Four. Beat High Point, win a close one against Arkansas, and then shoot out of your mind against Arizona, before beating a Purdue team you just beat in Mackey. That's where the dream ends however. I don't see this Badgers team knocking off Iowa State or Michigan in Indianapolis. Wisconsin's upset path runs through them hitting threes and the Final Four sightlines are always terrible for shooters.

Kind of...: Final Four, at least. Bieliauskas and Rapp have done pretty well in Winter's absence. IF Winter comes back healthy, AND Bieliauskas and Rapp keep up their play, suddenly Wisconsin's front court can at least not be overwhelmed by the elite frontcourts they might face. The defense isn't elite, but they can score with anybody, and would it really stun you if Nick Boyd pulled a Shabazz Napier impersonation for 2-3 weeks?

What's the worst that could happen?

BoilerUp89: I really think it's a Round of 32 loss which is relatively chalk. If we want to say Wisconsin loses a game they shouldn't it will be against 13 seed Hawaii who has the size to match up with a Big Ten team.

HoustonBoiler: The absolute worst thing would be High Point living up to their name by going nuclear on 3-point shots. But really, what BoilerUp89 said.

Kind of...: Yep. Worst case is High Point pulling a Wisconsin on Wisconsin.

Are there any fun storylines, weird esoterica, or strange historical sidebars to add here?

BoilerUp89: Wisconsin won two consecutive Elite 8 matchups against Arizona in 2014 and 2015 under Bo Ryan. Should they defeat they Wildcats again, they could potentially play 2 seed Purdue in the Elite 8. Big Ten teams don't often meet in the Elite 8 but this would be the 2nd time the two conference foes would have faced off deep in the tournament. The Badgers won the 2000 matchup to reach the Final Four.

Kind of...: I'm glad BoilerUp89 considers that a "fun storyline"! Oh, you mean to him it's a strange historical sidebar? Yeah, probably. So let's add weird esoterica.

Wisconsin won that Elite Eight game against Purdue in 2000. Brian Cardinal has a fine NBA career. For Wisconsin, Kirk Penney had an NBA career that consisted of 30 minutes played over 6 games in which he scored 5 points. That's it. Nobody else on either roster played in the NBA. It very well might be that there's never been an Elite Eight game, at least involving two power conference schools, that feature less NBA productivity on it. To me, that's a point of prided for the '00 Badgers.

But, yeah, as noted above, Wisconsin is 1-4 in 5/12 games as the 5 seed, and a couple were absolute clunkers. In '99 most of the '00 Final Four squad scored 32 points the whole f'ing game in a 43-32 loss to (Southwest) Missouri State. The only silver lining is that the Bearcats run to the Sweet 16 was enough to convince Iowa to hire Steve Alford, so Wisconsin really got the last laugh. In 2013, Wisconsin shot 25% from the floor and lost to Mississippi. Woof.