What to Predict When You're Predicting: #3 Michigan State Spartans

How's the first-round matchup look?

BoilerUp89: Slightly concerning. North Dakota State has multiple snipers from three. Five of their eight rotation members are above 37% from outside the arc. They could get hot and pack the paint against MSU while Sparty has a poor shooting night from outside. That being said, Michigan State should have a big advantage inside. The Bison are a good rebounding team but Sparty is elite in that area.

Kind of...: Sparty's offense is #24 in KenPom, so people can overstate their struggles. But, no, they don't always look smooth or score effortlessly. Still North Dakota State is not giving me '16 MSTU vibes.

AlmaOtter: The best team the Bison have played all year was UC-Irvine. NDSU lost by one. Spartans, you'll be fine.

How's the overall draw?

BoilerUp89: Decent. UConn appears to be the weakest two seed and Duke has some injury concerns. Louisville also has injury woes but pieces that are custom made to get hot in a win or go home scenario. There's plenty of challenges, but a decent upside here for Michigan State.

Kind of...: If Mikel Brown is healthy, Louisville would be a really worthy second round opponent. And those two teams have played three times while Izzo has been at MSU, with the lower-seeded team winning each time (MSU twice)! Even South Florida could present a challenge if they can speed up MSU. That said, the Spartans can't complain too much, for the reasons that BoilerUp89 noted.

AlmaOtter: A redux of the Duke-MSU 2019 Elite 8 game would be a banger. (Props to OhioOtter for getting those tix as a Christmas gift for her dad. Hell of a game for them to have been at live.) Lvhl would have been scary, but per KO's point above, Mikel Brown is out for the season. I would love to see Izzo shove Hurley into a locker. Generally, some interesting storylines, but a pretty good draw.

What's the best case for this team?

BoilerUp89: Final Four. If Duke was healthy I'd drop this to the Elite 8, but they aren't. However, I can't see MSU being anywhere near favored over whoever comes out of the South Region.

Kind of...: This year's version kind of reminds me of the 2009 Spartans, who rode a great PG (Kalin Lucas) and a "new hero every night" attitude all the way to the title game as a 2-seed. Could happen again.

AlmaOtter: Izzo in March means an Elite 8 is always a possibility. I don't see the Final Four unless they catch a break with Duke, though.

What's the worst that could happen?

BoilerUp89: Loss to North Dakota State. I don't think it will happen, but the Bison have some good piece that sloppy play from the Spartans and an uneven shooting performance could see them stumble early.

Kind of...: Loss to North Dakota State is possible. So is South Florida getting out early, making Sparty uncomfortable, and Fears doing something stupid that gets him tossed and MSU being out of sorts.

AlmaOtter: Fears goes full Nutcracker, the Bison go supernova from 3, we get to laugh about Middle Tennessee in 2016 again.

Are there any fun storylines, weird esoterica, or strange historical sidebars to add here?

BoilerUp89: Michigan State and Duke have been in the same region 6 of the last 8 tournaments. Eight programs from the East Region have won the NCAA Tournament before.

Kind of...: Going to gently disagree and suggest that only 7 of the teams in the East have won the NCAA before. Though six have won multiple, with UCLA (11), UConn (6), and Duke (5) among the five winningest ever. I noted the three battles with Louisville above. The lower-seed won each game, and each time the winner went on to the Final Four.