What to Predict When You're Predicting: #1 Michigan Wolverines

How's the first-round matchup look?

BoilerUp89: There's just no way that Michigan loses to a 16 seed. Howard? UMBC? Like either of those programs would know what it takes to knock off a 1 seed, am I right?

HoustonBoiler: You're correct. I don't see either of those teams beating Michigan, even if they know the location of the thermal exhaust port.

Kind of...: Not happening. Michigan will roll. I'm not going to pretend I saw UMBC coming, but 16/1 upsets are more about the 1 than the 16. Michigan isn't losing.

AlmaOtter: Alas, Michigan should cruise. They're tall as hell and Howard literally has the most turnovers per game in the country.

How's the overall draw?

BoilerUp89: Could have been better. Iowa State is a mother of a 2 seed and when they are playing well can beat anyone. I think they match up well against the Wolverines and Michigan won't be able to utilize their usual size advantage. Of course, the fact that I'm talking about the 2 seed and skipping past the 4/5 or 8/9 game tells you what you need to know.

MaximumSam: Man, kind of lucky that someone in America is still trying to charge people for weed.

HoustonBoiler: I expect Michigan to respond to their BTT Championship game loss and absolutely blitz whomever they play in the first three rounds. As such, Michigan should cruise until the Elite 8 where a potential matchup with Iowa State would present a challenge, because I just don't see Texas Tech, without JT Toppin, or Alabama presenting much of a challenge.

Kind of...: Alabama could erupt and just shoot Michigan out of the gym, but I'm note really seeing it. But the Elite Eight? Yeah, different story.

Iowa State closed the regular season 4-4, but they are really good. Their Big 12 semifinal vs. Arizona was one of the best games I saw all year (like top 5, maybe 10). They have 6'10", 6'9", and 6'8" starters. And their PG is clearly better than Cadeau. Michigan will have to earn their way. Since Jan. 1, Torvik has Michigan #5 and ISU #7.

AlmaOtter: Iowa State has shoved a lot of teams into a locker this year (including Purdue, who you may recall just beat a certain maize and blue team last weekend). They're a great #2 seed. Maybe 'bama could have given Michigan a scare, but felony counts of weed seem to have thrown a haze over that potential.

What's the best case for this team?

BoilerUp89: It's national championship or bust. I'm not a true believer (the Cason injury appears to be a bigger deal than it probably should be) but Michigan has all the pieces they need to bully their way to a championship. They just don't want to play from behind.

HoustonBoiler: National championship.

Kind of...: Natty. All due respect to the BTT, but there were times it looked like the Wolverines were playing at 80% engagement. We all know what Michigan was doing in November and December. If they find THAT again, they're the best team in the country.

AlmaOtter: Natty. But we all know what tradition tells us. They'll make the championship and lose, as is Big Ten tradition. Tradition!!

What's the worst that could happen?

BoilerUp89: Probably a hot game from Alabama? I find that unlikely. Feels like the floor should be an Elite 8 given the draw and early round matchups.

Kind of...: Georgia is off brand Alabama. If Alabama has a 20% chance of erupting on Michigan, Georgia has a 10% chance. If St. Louis wins, I'd say Robbie Avila has a 10% chance of channeling Cameron Krutwig and turning Michigan in to '21 Illinois.

Are there any fun storylines, weird esoterica, or strange historical sidebars to add here?

MaximumSam: Michigan had an early season struggle against TCU. Horned Frogs coach Jamie Dixon once ruptured his pancreas while playing basketball. Who does that?

HoustonBoiler: One of my alma maters absolutely destroyed Michigan in the 2018 championship game. I was in South Africa for work at the time and followed along on the ESPN gamecast in the wee hours of the morning before heading to work.

Kind of...: Most of you know that Michigan is 1-6 in NCAA title games all-time. But look who they've lost to in those games: '76 Indiana, '92 Duke, and '18 Villanova are all-time great teams. '65 UCLA and '93 North Carolina were elite, if not all-time great, teams helmed by coaching legends. And '13 Louisville didn't really win the title did they. At the same time, the '89 champs are among the most improbably champions in the last half century, and they won on an absolutely terrible end of game call. Pick up the action late in OT with Seton Hall leading 80-79 and with possession:

Seriously, it's worse than I remembered.