Tiers of the Heart

Can we just concede how silly it is to rank a conference of 18 schools using ordinal numbers? There are only ten possible conference records a team can end up with (9-0, 8-1, ...) and schedules are quite unbalanced.

Far better just to group teams into tiers...and to torture the English language while doing it.

DE-TIERED: ("I don't think about you at all")

NORTHWESTERN: Nobody thought you were going to beat Tulane. The problem was it never looked like there was a chance you could beat Tulane. Yeah, Tulane is pretty good, so there's no reason to concede a winless conference season yet. But when 4-8 looks like the ceiling, ouch. Enjoy the great sight lines at the stadium, I guess. Never has the distraction of a pleasant view seemed more appropriate.

UCLA: Kyle Whittingham is a CFB HOF coach (or should be), and a lot of smart money was on Utah having a bounce-back season. But, what is there to take from last week's drubbing? Any optimism from last year's strong finish is gone and suddenly @UNLV is looking like a challenge. Yeah, you've got Nico Iamaleava...at least for the rest of this year. Maybe you should've invested in a run defense.

RE-TIERED: ("So you're saying there's a chance")

MARYLAND: Last year sucked. But Locks indicated some of that was because NIL divided the locker room, and that's the sort of thing a coach, especially a player's coach, should be able to address. And, wow, you might have a special QB on your hands. Way too early to be booking hotel reservations for a bowl game, but things might not be as bad as we all thought.

PURDUE: Ball State is a pretty bad MAC team. But there's something to be said for being able to make a pretty bad MAC team look like a pretty bad MAC team. And let's be honest. When Barry Odom was announced as Purdue's new coach, the reaction of "why would Odom take that job" DOES tell you something about Odom's reputation. Assume a 2-2 start. It at least doesn't feel completely unrealistic to squint and see a 3-1 middle third to the season (vs. Illinois, @Minnesota, @Northwestern, vs. Rutgers).

SICK AND TIERED: (Does a dead cat really bounce?)

RUTGERS: Ohio is a strong MAC team...and that win was still way harder that it should've been. Schiano usually takes no prisoners in the non-conference, but the defense ruined that plan. Is all lost? Of course not. But does this look like the beginning of a season that will raise the program's ceiling? No.

MICHIGAN STATE: You were never threatened...by a middle of the road MAC team. But was it any more impressive than what Purdue did? You're optimistic about Aidan Chiles. But any more than Maryland is about Malik Washington? In other words, you certainly can get away with dreaming about moving up a tier. But the teams a tier behind you are dreaming about passing you up with just as much justification.

WISCONSIN: The defense looked great, and against a top-tier MAC squad. But the offense is still a work in progress, and it might just be the case that Miami has more gelling to do than the Badgers do. Phil Longo is far away, which is justification enough to think a corner is being rounded. But the offensive line struggled Thursday, which suggests that the offense will remain a work in progress.

CLOSING OF THE FRON-TIER: (There are two spots in the upper half, and four of you)

WASHINGTON: Colorado State was pretty good last year and is well-coached. And you beat them by 17 with double their yardage. No cause for panic. But it was a game into the fourth quarter, and you did give up three long TD drives. UC-Davis is next and Wazzu struggled with Idaho, so the jury may be out for a while. If you want to prove you're better than mediocre, be 4-1 after those two, vs. OSU, and @Maryland.

MINNESOTA: Minnesota is the anti-Rutgers in that they have a tendency to play with their food in non-conference play. So, a 13-point win over Buffalo is really no cause for alarm. Especially when the Bulls were held to 151 yards of offense and the Gophers were able to pound the running game effectively. 290 yards in Drake Lindsey's first start is enough to make a 7-1 start, and 9-3 season, feel possible. That will require winning @Cal in two weeks, making that 10:30 kick one of the premier late night games of the year.

NEBRASKA: You beat a P4 team in a (somewhat) neutral site environment. Nobody's laughing at that. However, if this were the NFL and Maryland called up offering a Washington for Raiola trade, you're at least considering that, right? Akron and Houston Christian (seriously?) should offer no resistance. We're all eagerly anticipating the September 20 conference opener with Michigan. Win that and let's talking bumping up a tier.

IOWA: 48 yards passing in a 27 point win that epitomizes the term "workmanlike." Some things never change. That said, is there any reason to think Gronowski can be much worse? The Hawkeyes get listed last here because they have the quickest path to a one-tier jump. Win in Ames next week against Iowa State, and look good doing it.

WITTY BAN-TIER: (You can talk the talk, but are you really elite?)

USC: You dropped 73 on Mizzou State. The return of Lincoln Riley, offensive genius! First game as an FBS team for Mizzou State? Let's pump the breaks a bit. Like several teams, your season nicely divides into thirds. If you're not 4-0 with vs. Georgia Southern, @Purdue, vs. Michigan State coming up, you're falling a tier. But that middle third--@Illinois, vs. Michigan, @Notre Dame, @Nebraska--that's where you can prove something, for better for for worse.

INDIANA: Take away two long runs totaling 153 yards (and all the ODU scoring) at the beginning and end of the game, and the Hoosiers rolled despite a few hiccups. Yet it felt somewhat disquieting to see Indiana not fully put away an overmatched opponent. Good news: what more evidence do you need of the increased expectations Cignetti wrought? Bad news: after tune-ups with Kennesaw State and Indiana State, your season is getting defined one way or another: vs. Illinois, @Iowa, @Oregon. I can't say you looked better than any of those teams this week. Which doesn't have to mean anything. But might. We'll see.

MICHIGAN: True frosh show flashes against overmatched opponent. About as eternal as stories of optimism get. But a 10-point lead after three? A defense that gave up a couple of long drives? A coach who is still pretty green? By the season's midpoint, you'll have gone to Oklahoma, Nebraska, and USC. The game in Norman next week looks fascinating.

ILLINOIS: No team looking to crack the upper tier seems more secure in its identity. And yet, there's @Duke next week. And a loss sure wouldn't be stunning. And Cigs gets to sit back for the next two weeks and design whatever wrinkles he wants for the conference opener in Bloomington. We're going to find out pretty fast just who, if anybody, in this tier has legit CFP dreams. Maybe fastest of all for the Illini.

NATTILY ATTIERED: (Looking good...feeling good)

OREGON: There's only so much mauling an FCS opponent can tell you. And while Montana State is FCS royalty, they also lost a ton off last year's team. But, what's the biggest negative for Oregon based on what you say Saturday? The Ducks were excellent last year, were expected to be excellent this year, and gave no reason to revise those expectations. They're now ranked in the top 5. And it's hard to argue they don't look the part.

PENN STATE: See Oregon, but with even higher expectations and, if anything, a marginally more impressive performance. Don't whine that Ohio State jumped you in the AP poll, please. You did play Nevada. Plus, you know that before the month is out, the CFB world will be focused on Happy Valley. Namely 9/27 when Oregon comes to town.

OHIO STATE: Any complaining would be churlish. You beat the preseason #1 with a defense that looks like it hasn't missed a beat. Sayin was more accurate than the numbers show, and Smith is unlikely to drop multiple passes in a game again. Basically your B game was enough against an A roster. As last year made clear, 10-2 is all that is needed for a CFP bid, and that seems almost inevitable given the remaining schedule.