The Peach Basket, 2026
Yep, we're still doing this thing.
Alright, so long-time readers will remember this silly project, but for those that are new to the place (Hello! Welcome!) I’m going to call back to an article I wrote in 2023 for the venerable publication Off Tackle Empire.
“Let’s talk arbitrary basketball statistics and broken bones. Bear with me here, and I’ll tell you which team will win the March Madness tourney this year. Probably.
On the last day of the 2021-2022 season, Illinois had a slim chance to take a share of the B1G title. They needed a bad Nebraska team to beat the Wisconsin Badgers, which had already clinched part of the conference crown. And if that unlikely event happened, Illinois still needed to take down their archrival Iowa at home. I was not optimistic, but it was a warm March day in northern Virginia. I threw on my decade-old Illinois cycling team jersey and rolled out for a bike ride.
Twenty miles later, a freak accident threw me off of my bike and damn near over the edge of a rocky embankment. I swore. It hurt. My leg was bleeding, my arm was in pain, and my bike was a mess. I’ve crashed many times before. This one was bad.
My wife picked me up and drove me to the ER. Broken collarbone confirmed, sling engaged, rest required. But the blood magic spell I had inadvertently cast was complete. Nebraska improbably took down Wisconsin, and while I self-medicated with a comically large pour of bourbon, Illinois held on to claim a share of the title. To all fellow traveler Illini fans, you’re welcome. I shattered bones for this team.
The next few weeks were impossibly frustrating and tedious. To keep my sanity, my best friend from my tiny Illinois hometown and I became basketball obsessives (shoutout to Dan, his 1-year-old Mattimeo, and his Villanova Wildcats, which might need some blood magic this year). We scoured articles and stats in the lead-in to the tourney. I eventually came across an Action Network article arguing the following: in the last 20 years, damn near every March Madness champ has had both a top-25 KenPom offensive efficiency rank and a combined KenPom offensive and defensive rank of 50 or fewer. I am a degenerate gambler, and I was intrigued.
We took the theory, collated better data, and played with the numbers. Ultimately, the formula was more predictive with this formulation: a March Madness champion must have a pre-Tournament top-15 KenPom-ranked offense AND a combined offense and defensive rank of 40 or less. Higher seeds are always more likely to win, but this primitive model removed one-dimensional teams from contention. To win a title, you need an elite offense first and foremost, but also secondarily need a damn good defense. Great defense alone won’t win it all, nor will phenomenal offenses with a sieve on the other end. Year to year, about 4-8 teams fall into that category, which we call the Peach Basket. If you’re in the Peach Basket before the tourney, you have a shot to win it all.”
Alright, and with that, let’s jump to today! Since that original article, we’ve added more data to the metric. It now covers all of the teams from the 2001 to the 2025 tournaments and is even more predictive than before. And my collarbone doesn’t hurt as much when I sleep on it now!
Since 2001, there have been 149 Basket teams. And here's how they've done.
Dang, that's pretty good! A near 1/3 chance to make the Final Four is pretty remarkable. And a better than coin flip to get to past the second weekend too. (Who are the nine teams that shat the bed in the first round? More on those folks later this spring.)
So which teams are in the Peach Basket right now, with roughly half of the season to go? And which teams are undervalued?
Hey! We've got three B1G teams and only one SEC squad! That's a nice change of pace from last year! Nine basket teams is a little high; I'd expect to see a few of these change and a few fall out before the season's end. The Peach Basket says no to Houston and UConn and defending champ Florida and MSU, at least presently. Illinois appears to be a high value bet, or at least a bet that's considered a long shot by Vegas. Gonzaga at +1600 is interesting.
So, what say you? In year 3 of this series, it it still bullshit? Are you taking one of these nine teams or are you taking the field?
