Selection Sunday - Rapid Reactions

East Region - Washington, D.C.

Greenville, SC
8 The Ohio State Buckeyes (21-12) v. 9 TCU Horned Frogs (22-11)

1 Duke Blue Devils (32-2) v. 16 Siena Saints (23-11)

BoilerUp89: OSU wasn't going to be in the tournament three weeks ago, so it's hard to complain much about their draw. TCU is a real up and down team. They beat Florida and Iowa State while taking Michigan to the wire, but also lost to Colorado, Utah, New Orleans, and Notre Dame. The defense is good, but the offense is streaky. Honestly I'm just happy that Bruce Thornton gets to go dancing.

Duke is a real bear of an opponent but I think they are vulnerable without starting PG Caleb Foster. Ohio State should have plenty of confidence too, having recently beat Purdue and pushing Michigan and UVA (who nearly beat Duke) before falling in close losses to them.

MaximumSam: Death to frogs

Buffalo, NY
3 Michigan State Spartans (25-7) v. 14 North Dakota State Bison (27-7)

6 Louisville Cardinals (23-10) v. 11 South Florida Bulls (25-8)

BoilerUp89: Michigan State didn't get a 2 seed, but the bracket isn't unkind to them. UConn is the weakest two they could be matched up with and as mentioned above Duke is gettable.

In the more immediate future, the Bison are a rebounding team. They can shoot the three well - five players above 37% - but the quality of looks they get in the Summit are different than what Izzo's teams tend to give up.

Louisville is a dangerous team. Ryan Conwell and Isaac McKneely can both absolutely catch fire while J'Vonne Hadley is shooting 45% from three. South Florida hasn't lost since January but also lost pretty much every game of note in the non-conference. Either opponent would jack up a lot of threes and sometimes they fall.

Philadelphia, PA
7 UCLA Bruins (23-11) v. 10 Central Florida Knights (21-11)

2 Connecticut Huskies (29-5) v. 15 Furman Paladins (22-12)

BoilerUp89: UCLA gets UCF. Per Kenpom, UCF is the 2nd worst at-large (ahead of just 1 loss Miami). The bigger issue is whether Donovan Dent and Tyler Bilodeau are healthy and ready to go. If they are, the way UCLA has been playing lately they should run all over UCF.

UCLA also got off the 8/9 line which is great and followed that up with getting a disappointing UConn team that hasn't been tested for much of the past two months as their 2 seed. The Big East was down bad this year and UConn didn't win the regular season or tournament. I know Dan Hurley is the greatest coach ever, but I think their offense just isn't that good this year.

West Region - San Jose, CA

Portland, OR
5 Wisconsin Badgers (24-10) v. 12 High Point Panthers (30-4)

4 Arkansas Razorbacks (26-8) v. 13 Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (24-8)

BoilerUp89: I know Wisconsin won't be too happy having to travel out to Portland, but I like the first round matchup for the Badgers. High Points makes their living off of turnover margin. They don't turn it over and they get a ton of steals. The Badgers have multiple ball handlers that are more than capable of taking care of the basketball and getting to the rim against the Panthers. Wisconsin has the lowest offensive steal rate in the country. They counter High Points strength very, very well. The Panthers have the nation's longest winning streak but I feel confident saying it

Looking ahead to the potential Arkansas or Hawaii matchup. Arkansas is similar to Wisconsin in that they don't turn the ball over (honestly this is just a brutal pod for High Point). The Razorbacks knock down threes at a high clip (38.9%) but don't play much defense. Their pace might have given past Badgers teams issues, but Greg Gard plays at medium tempo these days. If both Wisconsin and Arkansas advance this game should be a shootout. If it's Hawaii to come out of the 4/13 matchup, the Rainbow Warriors play through their defense forcing tough shots and limiting opponents to 1 shot. They have the size and length to force tough shots but their offense can be limited.

Perpetually Aggrieved Wildcat: High Point by 20.

Kind of...: I mean, it’s a 12/5 game, but I don’t know of another 12 seed I’d prefer. They haven’t beaten anybody (best win: Illinois-Chicago), and they’re not tall. Wisconsin plays at all decent and they should win.

St. Louis, MO
2 Purdue Boilermakers (27-8) v. 15 Queens Royals (21-13)
7 University of Miami Hurricanes (25-8) v. 10 Missouri Tigers (20-12)

BoilerUp89: I'm surprised Purdue got a 2 seed (the committee apparently did watch the Big Ten championship game!), but this is a pretty nice draw. Queens is an awful defense and rebounding team but they can make shots. If the Boilermakers can use their new found defensive chops they should be able to move on without too many problems.

Miami is an excellent rebounding team and is good at attacking the rim. Old friend Malik Reneau is a senior starter for the Hurricanes but I like Purdue's ability to match up with him. Purdue needs to contain Miami's guards as they are pretty solid but they are familiar with Tre Donaldson. I don't love potentially having to play Missouri in St. Louis and the Tigers have some good wins this year over Florida, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee. Keep them off the offensive glass and run their three point snipers off the line.

Sneaking a peek further ahead in the bracket, Arizona is a beast but a) Arkansas and Wisconsin are the type of teams that can pull off an upset and b) Purdue got the best 3 and 6 seed options they could have.

Midwest Region - Chicago, IL

Buffalo, NY
1 Michigan Wolverines (31-3) v. 16 UMBC Retrievers (24-8)/Howard Bison (23-10)
8 Georgia Bulldogs (22-10) v. 9 Saint Louis Billikens (28-5)

BoilerUp89: Michigan should not have any problems here. 16 seeds don't beat 1 seeds. At least I can't remember it happening. Georgia is one of the weaker 8 seeds and while Saint Louis is an excellent shooting team (40.5% from three) Michigan is going to have their way with them in the paint. Robbie Avila is good, but won't be able to face Michigan's depth in the post and hold up for 40 minutes.

South Region - Houston, TX

Tampa, FL
9 Iowa Hawkeyes (21-12) v. 8 Clemson Tigers (24-10)
1 Florida Gators (26-7) v. 16 Prairie View A&M Panthers (18-17)/Lehigh Mountain Hawks (18-16)

BoilerUp89: Iowa/Clemson is a very intriguing 8/9 game. Iowa's offense versus Clemson's defense should be a lot of fun. The other matchup is a bit of an eyesore. Both teams play at a snails pace so this will be the lowest O/U of the tournament.

If Iowa advances they will be throttled by Florida. I'm sorry, but as we saw all year, Iowa doesn't have the horses to keep up with the truly elite teams this year. Still, a Round of 32 in Year 1 isn't anything to turn your nose up about.

Oklahoma City, OK
4 Nebraska Cornhuskers (26-6) v. 13 Troy Trojans (22-11)
5 Vanderbilt Commodores (26-8) v. 12 McNeese Cowboys (28-5)

BoilerUp89: Nebraska fans are probably a bit miffed they got a 4 seed in the Tournament after finishing 2nd in the Big Ten regular season. That's fully understandable. Troy didn't have a great regular season, but they are dangerous. They gave USC all they could handle back in November (triple OT loss) and beat San Diego State and Akron so they are definitely solid and shouldn't be taken lightly. The Cornhuskers need to prevent Cooper and Cobi Campbell from getting hot from three. Both are shooting >38.9% from three on the season.

I don't want to get ahead of myself here as Nebraska needs to get that first victory knocked off before looking ahead, but if they advance to the Round of 32, either Vanderbilt or McNeese is gettable. Like, Nebraska Vanderbilt started out the season strong before hitting conference play and finally picking up some losses. The Commodores are well coached and an excellent offense, but Nebraska can win a game against them if they play well. McNeese thrives off turnovers. Nebraska should be able to hand the traps and press to exploit their advantages inside. The lack of a dominant post player (Mast likes to stand by the three point line and Buyuktuncel is serviceable but not dominant) means that McNeese probably won't be punished as much as they were in last year's tournament.

Greenville, SC
3 Illinois Fighting Illini (24-8) v. 14 Penn Quakers (18-11)
6 North Carolina Tarheels (24-8) v. 11 VCU Rams (27-7)

BoilerUp89: Illinois gets to face Fran McCaffery. That's how you know the selection committee has a sense of humor. Penn was a surprising Ivy League tournament champion beating both Harvard and Yale in overtime. They can make threes (38.7% on the season), but otherwise are a bad offense and not a very good defense.

North Carolina is a bit banged up. They are missing star Caleb Wilson and while they've done okayish without him they clearly aren't the same team they were before then. VCU is hot (winners of 16 of their last 17) but let's also be real. Their best win all year came over South Florida. I don't think they have the horses to beat Illinois unless the Illini self-implode.

Looking further ahead, facing Houston in Houston is a bad beat but the Illini might just have the offense to beat Kelvin Sampson's smothering defense. Having the weakest #1 seed isn't the worst thing either.

thumpasaurus: hahaha i get all three of those references Selection Committee

Fran -> UNC -> Kelvin Sampson

AlmaOtter: FRANNNNNNNNNNNN! I thought we had finally seen the final detonation of that irascible man. I'm not delighted by that, but as my wise colleagues Kind Of.. and BU89 have kindly pointed out to me: Penn needed everything to win the Ivy League today. They are an offense-first team with a bad offense. They play fast but have a matador quality to their defense.

And the R32 matchup will either be North Carolina (spits) or VCU, neither of which are a frightening second-round opponent. Sure, we could dicktrip this and get bounced early, but the draw is totally reasonable. Defeating the Tarheels (spits) 21 years since the '05 title game would be a fun narrative.

And if it all goes chalk? Houston and Kelvin Samson in the S16.

Overall Thoughts

Perpetually Aggrieved Wildcat: As Northwestern has been their own worst enemy most of the season, some time at home alone with their thoughts feels like a really dangerous matchup.

BoilerUp89: Spoiler, but I'm taking Arizona to win it all. I think 6 Big Ten teams have a chance to make it to Indianapolis and like many of their paths to the Sweet 16 and Elite 8, but think the difficulty ramps up so much at that point that I don't see many getting through.

Overall, I think the Committee did a really, really good job for once.