MNW: A very pleasant Friday to you. Welcome to the Obligatory Predictions Competition.
RockyMtnBlue opts to give me a wide berth of what to write in this section – so...politics, anyone?
American politics are an intimate part of my day job, unfortunately. Written a book about them, teach and research them, have addressed four different audiences this fall on some local and regional topics, been quoted in a Major Daily and multiple Legacy Publications, whole bunch of stuff. It's been kinda cool.
And yet I'm wondering, on Election Night, how far away I can run from them.
I mean that almost literally: I have research obligations both in the American West and in Canada, and I'm strongly debating whether it's worth filling out a travel form and fucking off for a few days. I'm already at Large Public University and not my home Monday-Wednesday every week, so this is already-budgeted time; while I have some online Q&A obligations on Election Day Morning, the night is free.
Do I go to Muddy Forks? Should I hit up the archives in Last Chance Gulch?
There's a certain appeal to watching the election results in (1) another country, or (2) a Western time zone – either I won't be able to watch, or everything will be in front of me before I slip into a scotch-induced, restless sleep.
Also: RMB wanted me to note that "the straight-up picks in these six games are 15-0, 15-0, 15-0, 13-2, 13-2, and 12-3. This is a very shitty slate of games to watch."
So...to the picks!
About Last Week
Thoughts
- MNW is on a heater the last couple weeks. 11-4, flying up the leaderboard
- For the first time maybe all year (I'm too lazy to do the research), your "writers" managed to be more right than wrong. Yay us!
- Check out the straight up standings below. Now that's a race!
Picks
Saturday October 24th
(6) Indiana Hoosiers @ Michigan Wolverines
11am | Fox | Indiana -7 | O/U: 41.5
ATS: Indiana 11-4 | Straight Up: All TeamFormerlyKnownAsDeathStar
Transient Buckeye: Feels like it would’ve been way better for Michigan if Nick Marsh had come down in bounds on fourth down. Cignetti doesn’t strike me as the sort of guy who takes losing graciously, and I’m assuming he’s been making the lives of every Hoosier player a living hell all week. They’re going to want to get the loss stink off of them, and I think they’re going to do it. Hoosiers win and cover.
Thumpasaurus: This is gonna be the first really good team Michigan plays. Yikes on bikes.
IUinVA: Michigan finally has their carr with les miles. Preseason, I thought IU would split against OSU and Michigan (be too high after OSU and drop one at Michigan or dig in after an OSU loss and increase focus and win at Michigan). My opinion hasn’t changed, but this game will be a dogfight that will go down to the wire. If IU can get to 20 points, then they should be able to win. I think the defense can effectively get them halfway there. I’ll say Indiana 20, Michigan 15.
WSR: If Carr plays, I think Michigan could make it interesting because that defense is TERRIFYING. But I get the impression that the only breakdowns Wittingham is working on is his paychecks between the traditional and Roth 401Ks.
Buffkomodo: I’ve watched enough Michigan to worry about the defense but believe the offense is soft. Indiana wins, and wins fairly convincingly.
HoustonBoiler: Indiana wins this one but Michigan covers. Why? Because Indiana has not been covering this season. It’s a matter of expectations. While Indiana has been winning (except for last week), they have not been winning by enough margin, at least according to Las Vegas.
RockyMtnBlue: That line is absurd. Indiana is a functional football program. A good one even! Michigan is neither of those things. Oh yeah, and now Indiana is pissed and no longer has the pressure of the winning streak. I’m so happy for them. Indiana 31-9
misdreavus79: I almost picked Michigan out of habit, so I’ll split the difference. Indiana 14, Michigan 10
MNW: Michigan isn't good, Cignetti is pissed, and the 7-point line is low enough that I think the Hoosiers can cover (and won't be surprised if they push). Hoosiers, 21-13.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ (24) Northwestern Wildcats
11am | Peacock | Northwestern -16.5 | O/U: 58.5
ATS: Rutgers 8-7 | Straight Up: All kittens
Transient Buckeye: Rutgers hasn’t given up, which is a sort of compliment to their players and coaching staff. I’m tempted to take them to cover. But I can’t do it, not on the road. And not with that “defense.” ‘Cats win big.
Thumpasaurus: KJ Duff versus my number one team in the power poll. Who’d win?
IUinVA: Cats win, but Rutgers has the offensive playmakers to be able to cover this huge line.
WSR: We’re going to see some absolute filth from Chip Kelly that hasn’t been seen since Tubby Raymond was coaching. I demand that we get at least one highlight of Wing T bullshit that should be set to grainy black and white film and tinny music with a white RB getting through 37 tackle attempts for Rutgers.
Buffkomodo: oh, this game is at Northwestern? Cats by approximately 48.
HoustonBoiler: Northwestern is better but can they cover KJ Duff? Northwestern wins but Rutgers covers.
RockyMtnBlue: Like much of the former Big10West, Northwestern is irritatingly competent. They’re all seriously fucking with my equilibrium. Rutgers is not. But they’re plucky. I say they get the backdoor cover. Northwestern 34-21
misdreavus79: Sixteen and a half points? Who do they think Northwestern’s playing, Penn State? Northwestern 49, Rutgers 42
MNW: KJ Duff is going to feast against the Northwestern secondary. That's where my nerves are – does Rutgers have the balls to just spam that button over and over and over and over again?
And I don't mean, like, 12-14 targets. I mean 20+. We're talking 2002 Vikings and the Randy Ratio. Don't even pretend you're throwing it anywhere else. Raymond and Thevenin could do just enough on the ground to keep the 'Cats off-balance, and this could get nice and dumb.
I say that because if the 'Gers are giving up 30+ to Maryland and UMass, and they're ranked 118th in the country, giving up 185 ypg and over 5.6 ypc, the 'Cats better be able to run the ball. Even if the Knights key on it, that's where Chip Kelly's misdirections and motions should come in handy. Keep Aidan Chiles's pass attempts under 20, control the clock, and limit Duff's opportunities to hurt you.
They should be able to. 'Cats, 27-14.
Oregon Ducks @ Illinois Fighting Illini
2pm | BTN | Oregon -8.5 | O/U: 50.5
ATS: Illinois 8-7 | Straight Up: Oregon 13-2
Transient Buckeye: Is either of these teams any good? I don’t think Illinois is. But I’m not sure Oregon is, either. Ducks win, but they haven’t been scoring enough to feel good about them covering an 8.5-point spread against air. Illini give their home fans a moral victory by covering.
Thumpasaurus: Lest we not forget, Illinois also has a starting QB down. You often see this happen with a backup QB where they look great in their first relief appearance and then struggle in their first start. I think that’s what we’re gonna see here with Michael Clayton. Would love to be wrong. As for the Illini defense, Oregon’s receivers can simply run past them. We’re gonna have to switch back to that one-safety-30-yards-deep look to contain them. This could get ugly in a hurry.
IUinVA: Oregon pulls out a win, but Illinois makes this a close game. I can’t give Oregon that many points.
WSR: Oregon is a broken team right now, but they’re still far more talented and should probably escape. Watch out for the corkscrew, Illinois.
Buffkomodo: Oregon wins because Illinois is bad but this is one of those Bert games it feels like he can pull a rabbit out of the hat.
HoustonBoiler: Illinois is bad, but Oregon has not lived up to their pre-season hype. Oregon wins, but Illinois covers.
RockyMtnBlue: I want to pick the fighting Berts for the upset. I probably should have. But I didn’t. Oregon 21-20
misdreavus79: Absolutely not. Illinois 17, Oregon 10
MNW: Gross, WSR. But I see you.
Feels a little Last Chance Saloon for the 2026 Fightin' Berts, and it'll be an interesting measure of what they can do. My pick here is based on how little I think Oregon can actually do with their offense as currently comprised. Nike Outlet Drake Lindsey isn't good enough to swagger into this, and even if the Illini are stuck with the Defense Hauck Fucked Up, the Ducks aren't good enough to take full advantage.
Then again, I'm also working on a theory for next year: rather than just picking all the games (I missed at least one week this year because lol, I can't even put DWT out anymore), what if I just picked the "Standard" Big Ten games each week?
I'm sick of trying to figure out Oregon, remember what Washingotn's been doing, or remember that USC is here. Maybe I'll pick enough games to be on the leaderboard, but just ignore the West Coast.
Anyway. Illini, 18-15.
Michigan State Spartans @ (9) UCLA Bruins
2:30pm | CBS | UCLA -14 | O/U: 44.5
ATS: UCLA 11-4 | Straight Up: All Bruins
Transient Buckeye: I keep picking MSU to get blown out, and they keep covering just to spite me. Have I learned my lesson? Hell, no. Bruins win and cover.
Thumpasaurus: I would take Plucky MSU to cover were this not a road west coast game.
IUinVA: The Chesney Bruins just keep winning. This one could get ugly.
WSR: Why do we keep having to watch MSU games? I should not have to be subjected to this filth.
Buffkomodo: I think I split this because when you’re a bad team, it’s easier to play on the road than it is at home. Sparty with a clunker and a backdoor cover.
HoustonBoiler: UCLA wins and covers because they are 6-0 ATS this season.
RockyMtnBlue: Sparty is the new Nebby. I am willing this into existence with of my being. UCLA 21-17
misdreavus79: It would be hilarious if UCLA is the team Fitzgerald ends up Fitzgeraling. UCLA 99, Michigan State 2
MNW: Continuing to pick Nebraska is burning me, and surely continuing to pick against Michigan State is going to burn me here, too. (Low-key: a push here would tickle me as well. Give us TWO in one week, B1G!)
This one being at the Rose Bowl is what pushes me over the top on the Bruins. UCLA, 31-14.
(15) Iowa Hawkeyes @ Minnesota Golden Gophers
2:30pm | FS1 | Iowa -7 | O/U: 40.5
ATS: Minnesota 8-7 | Straight Up: Iowa 13-2
Transient Buckeye: Going to go with the Hawkeyes to win and cover. But Minnesota pulling the outright upset would be the most Big Ten West thing ever, and it might very well happen.
Thumpasaurus: At some point Iowa is gonna need to start losing some games lest they fail to hit the mark of exactly 8 wins. But not this time.
IUinVA: Iowa has won ten out of eleven in this series. I have a theory that Iowa is the exact same team every year, so Iowa wins.
WSR: No.
Buffkomodo: Iowa seems to struggle away from Iowa sometimes. While Minny won’t be able to score, neither will Iowa. 15-12 roughly.
HoustonBoiler: Can a team that was blown out by Purdue beat Iowa? When you consider that PJ Fleck essentially has Minnesota play like Iowa, the answer is no. Fleck cannot out-Iowa Ferentz.
RockyMtnBlue: Arguably the best trophy in college football. Too bad Iowa always wins. In the battle of “teams that suck because they only beat Michigan by a single score”, I’m leaning Hawkeyes. Iowa 19-11.
misdreavus79: No one is better at Iowa than Iowa. Yet here is PJ, trying anyway. Iowa some prime number, Minnesota some less weird, but still a prime number, just smaller
[RMB] I'd like to point out that my score prediction works with misdreavus's score prediction.
MNW: Holy shit wait, I took Minnesota here? For real?
Dime Store Raiola must have a good game. Who's to say what else I could've been thinking here. Gophers, 24-21.
(16) USC Trojans @ Wisconsin Badgers
6:30pm | NBC | USC -3 | O/U: 49.5
ATS: USC 11-4 | Straight Up: USC 12-3
Transient Buckeye: Why is USC just a 3-point favorite here? Yes, they’re traveling. But Wisconsin still isn’t very good. What does Vegas know that I don’t? Trojans win and cover, but this spread has me very, very nervous.
Thumpasaurus: Everyone continues to insist that Wisconsin is bad, and despite Joltin’ Colton putting up some hilarious stat lines the scores don’t really tell that story. I think the Badgers get this one.
IUinVA: Jayden Maiava doesn’t get enough hype. Lincoln Riley has a long track record of great offenses, but with a defense that has finally ascended to “merely average,” the Trojans are a pretty good team. The weather in Madison looks fine, so I don’t see the Badger offense keeping up.
WSR: wisconsin is bad, but that doesn’t mean USC is very good. They’re just good enough to beat a bad wisconsin.
Buffkomodo: Wisconsin blew an opportunity and 3 points is terrifyingly close. USC covers comfortably.
HoustonBoiler: If USC really wants to be in the CFP, they need to win this game. They do and do it by more than three.
RockyMtnBlue: Pure gut call here. Which means HoustonBoiler is right and I’m wrong. Wisconsin 35-34
misdreavus79: Penn State already lost to both of these so I don’t give a shit who wins. USC 33, Wisconsin 28
MNW: A THIRD PUSH? GIVE US A THIRD PUSH!
For now, I'll say USC, 31-21, but I want it on the record that I really wanted to pick the three pushes this week.
Too Cowardly To Play
Maryland Terrapins
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Ohio State Buckeyes
Penn State Nitany Lions
Purdue Boilermakers
Washington Huskies
Transient Buckeye: Both Penn State and Maryland are underdogs this weekend. Purdue is a push. Nebraska will have a great week, and everything will be looking fantastic until mid-afternoon, and then suddenly and abruptly their lives will go to shit.
Buffkomodo: Looks like Ohio State lost the bye week already. Speedy recovery to Sayin though.
HoustonBoiler: Rest up Boilers. You’re gonna need it! Oh and work on tackling and covering.
RockyMtnBlue: Side bets on Sayin’s replacement being better than Sayin? You know it’s going to happen. It’s the Ohio State way!
misdreavus79: Oh good god I get a break for a week. Finally.
