Hello and welcome to even more time consuming mid major stupidity that no one will read (I remain undeterred).
The idea here is to create a team by team template of the minimum resume that would earn a non power 5.5 school an NCAA tournament at large bid.
The 3 mid major at large case studies I used as a road map were 2025-26 (#28)St Mary's, (#31)Santa Clara and (#41)St.Louis. Their ultimately successful at large profiles taught us 3 important rules that must be followed (if you are a mid major in search of an at large bid):
1) A bad preseason ranking is not a death sentence. Santa Clara was preseason #94 and St Louis was #83 on Torvik's 2025 pre-season rankings.
2) You must win at least 1 and ideally 2 or more Q1 games. St Louis and Santa Clara both had 2 and St Mary's finished with 1.
3) If you have as many or more Q3/4 losses than you do Q1 wins you are likely cooked. Bad losses can only be offset by top end wins and since the little guys have so few opportunities at quality wins multiple mulligans are out of the question.
Ideally, I will circle back after the non-con and reassess each school's chances (or lack thereof) heading into their league campaign.
Anyhow, that's about enough senseless blathering. On to a post full of thoughtful and concise analysis.
YOU FOOLS! THERE ARE AT LEAST 2000 MORE WORDS MADE UP ALMOST ENTIRELY OF MY SENSELESS BLATHERING!!
Editor's note: that describes most of our long form articles
Rankings per Torvik (note that I do not count non D1 games toward a team's record)
- Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
- Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
- Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
- Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
#43 - Grand Canyon Lopes: 20-12 (13-7) 3rd in MWC
Q1: @Oklahoma St, Florida(n), @New Mexico
Gooey middle: St. Louis(n), Stanford or Colorado(n), @Memphis, Santa Clara(n), New Mexico, @Nevada, @UNLV, @Wyoming, @Hawaii
Potential Bad Losses: 20
D2 Disgrace?: yes (Justice)
at large goals: 25-6. 1-2 vs Q1. 6-5 vs Q1/2. 19-1 vs Q3/4.
words: The Lopes return leading scorer (and former Gopher) Jaden Henley and had 4 of their 5 projected starters (including former Jayhawk killer Dylan "Church Bells" Darling from St John's) named to the preseason all MWC team. Grand Canyon also scheduled decently well in the non-con, highlighted by games against St Louis, Santa Clara, Oklahoma St, Florida and Memphis. The home and home with New Mexico in late January/early February will be appointment television.
#57 - VCU Rams: 28-8 (15-3) 1st in A10
Q1: Providence(n), (1 more game in Maui), @St Louis, @Dayton
Gooey Middle: @Santa Clara, @Memphis, (3rd game in Maui), Mississippi St(n), @GW, St Louis, Dayton, @GM, @Richmond, @Fordham, @St Bonaventure
Potential Bad Losses: 17
D2 Disgrace?: no
at large goals: 25-7. 1-3 vs Q1. 9-6 vs Q1/2. 16-1 vs Q3/4.
words: The Rams lost tournament darling Terrence Hill to Tennessee but they return 3 other starters (all of whom were named to the all A10 pre-season team) and pickup up volume scorer Nyl Ralph-Beyer from Sacred Heart and double double machine Torey Alston from MTSU. VCU also put together a very solid non-con schedule that features matchups with Memphis, Santa Clara, an invite to Maui and Mississippi St. A February home and home with St Louis should go a very long way to deciding the A10 regular season champion.
#65 – St. Mary’s Gaels: 27-6 (16-2) 1st in WCC
Q1: ULCA(n), @OKSt, @ New Mexico,
Gooey Middle: Nevada(n), UIC, St Louis, Georgetown(n), @Santa Clara, @Pacific
Potential Bad Losses: 22
D2 Disgrace?: yes (Menlo)
at large goals: 26-5. 1-2 vs Q1. 5-4 vs Q1/2. 21-1 vs Q3/4.
words: Not enough is being said about Randy Bennett heading to Tempe where his former nemesis and current doppelganger Herb Sendek had failed before him. I don't know a ton about this team (or the new coach) outside of Joshua Dent and 5 star recruit Darius Bivins. But they do seem to still have their requisite number of slow white dudes from either Australia or Lithuania. November games against Nevada, UIC, St Louis and UCLA will tell us a whole lot about what to expect from the Gaels. Also, even though I have them filed under “bad” teams, SMC's non-con includes New Mexico St, Hofstra, North Dakota St, Illinois St, Portland St, Iona, Harvard and Princeton. Just remarkable (if not particularly useful) scheduling.
#67 - New Mexico Lobos: 26-11 (13-7) 3rd in MWC
Q1: @Wichita, @Grand Canyon
Gooey Middle: Utah St, St Mary’s, @Santa Clara, @UC Irvine, Boise St(n), Oregon St(n), Grand Canyon, @Nevada , @UNLV, @Hawaii, @Wyoming
Potential Bad Losses: 18
D2 Disgrace?: yes (Northern New Mexico)
at large goals: 24-7 1-1 vs Q1. 7-6 vs Q1/2. 17-1 vs Q3/4.
words: The Lobos are actually favored over Grand Canyon to win the Mountain West. A lot of that has to do with coach Eric Olen convincing star freshman guard (and preseason MWC player of the year) Jake Hall to stick around in Albuquerque for another season. New Mexico did what New Mexico does and scheduled as many difficult games with other mid majors as possible. The center piece of their non-con being games against Wichita St, Utah St, St Mary's, Santa Clara, UC Irvine and Boise St.
#68 - High Point Panthers: 31-5 (15-1) 1st in Big South
Q1: @St Louis, @LSU
Gooey Middle: Miami (OH)(n)
Potential Bad Losses: 27
D2 Disgrace?: yes (William Pearce, Pfieffer)
at large goals: 28-2. 1-1 vs Q1. 2-1 vs Q1/2. 26-1 vs Q3/4.
words: High Point puts as much or more money into it's basketball program than many P5.5 schools and it shows on their roster. Cam'Rom Fletcher would be a starter for half the Big 10. Conrad Martinez (and his 3 to 1 AST/TO ratio) returns to run the point. The Panthers also brought in CJ Brown (a starter from USFs tournament team), Isaac Garrett (who averaged double figured for Oakland) and Filip Brankovic from sneaky fun UT-Rio Grande Valley. Unfortunately High Point is really hindered by being in the Big South. With Winthrop likely taking a huge step back, there exists the potential that every single conference game High Point plays in 2027 will be of the Q4 variety. And while the Panthers managed to schedule some fun non-con games with Washington St, Duquesne, George Mason and Miami (OH) those won't count for a whole lot with the computer ratings. Their entire season may come down to 2 road games at St Louis and LSU. Lose both of those and Flynn Clayman's group may need to run the rest of the table just to sweat out Selection Sunday at 30-3.
#69 - St Louis Billikens: 29-6 (15-3) 1st in A10
Q1: Missouri(n), @ St Mary’s, Grand Canyon(n), @Dayton, @VCU
Gooey Middle: High Point, Stanford or Colorado(n), USF(n), DePaul, Dayton, VCU, @Fordham, @GW, @Richmond, @St Joe’s
Potential Bad Losses: 16
D2 Disgrace?: yes (Missouri Baptist)
at large goals: 24-7. 1-4 vs Q1. 9-6 vs Q1/2. 15-1 vs Q3/4.
words: I have said A TON about how much I love Josh Schertz and St Louis over the last 2 seasons. They are incredible to watch when they get rolling on offense (just ask Georgia). The Billikens return a ton a talent from last season highlighted by all A10 selections Trey Green, Kellen Thames, Amari McCottrey and Ishan Sharma. They scheduled well enough in the non-con (and the A10 is strong enough) that they've left themselves some margin for error and I will be glued to the TV during both of their matchups with VCU. Having said all that... the REAL story here is the potential return of 2026 A10 POY Robbie Avila. I want to see him back. You want to see him back. ALL OF COLLEGE BASKETBALL WANTS TO SEE HIM BACK. Let's get you that 5th year, Larry Blurrd.
#70– Wichita St Shockers: 24-12 (13-5) 2nd in the AAC
Q1: USC(n), @Kentucky
Gooey Middle: New Mexico, Boise St, @Memphis, @Kansas St, @Tulsa, @Charlotte, @USF, @FAU, @North Texas
Potential Bad Losses: 19
D2 Disgrace?: yes (Friends, Cameron)
at large goals: 24-6. 1-1 vs Q1. 6-5 vs Q1/2. 18-1 vs Q3/4.
words: Will Berg is both a preseason first team AAC selection and league favorite Wichita St's best player. HWUT? The Shockers also bring back guards TJ Williams and Michael Gray Jr and supplemented their roster with incoming double digit scoring transfers Jahari Long (George Mason) and Jordan Frison (Chattanooga). The AAC is only serving up decent games on the road (and very little of the Q1 variety) so Wichita's resume will need to rely on beating either USC or Kentucky, doing well against the trio of New Mexico, Boise St and Kansas St and then avoiding bad losses.
#72 - Dayton Flyers: 25-12 (12-6) 3rd in A10
Q1: @Florida St, @St Louis, @VCU
Gooey Middle: Cincinnati(n), Utah(n), NW(n), @Davidson, @ Fordham, @St Bonaventure, @Duquesne, @GW, St Louis, VCU
Potential Bad Losses: 20
D2 Disgrace?: no
at large goals: 25-7. 1-2 vs Q1. 7-6 vs Q1/2. 19-1 vs Q3/4.
words: Dayton has the fanbase and resources that can make a 25 win season still feel like a let down. Coach Anthony Grant has won 70% of his games in the A10 during his 9 seasons in charge but has somehow only managed to parlay that into 1 NCAA tournament appearance (really 2 because they'd have been a 1 seed in 2020). This year, Dayton's best returning player is a 7 foot foul prone goofy French guy and he will most likely be joined in the starting lineup by four power 5.5 cast offs. The Flyers' usually stiff non-con schedule is once again full of power 5.5 (and top mid major) opponents like Cincinnati, Utah, Northwestern and Florida St. The path is there but Dayton has disappointed enough that I remain skeptical that they are able to follow it.
#77 - George Washington Revolutionaries: 19-16 (8-10) 8th in A10
Q1: @Dayton
Gooey Middle: @Boston College, Utah St(n), St Louis, VCU, @Davidson, @Fordham, @St Bonaventure, Dayton, @GM, @Richmond
Potential Bad Losses: 20
D2 Disgrace?: yes (Ferrum)
at large goals: 25-6. 1-0 vs Q1. 6-5 vs Q1/2. 19-1 vs Q3/4.
words: I like Chris Caputo as a head coach and I have always wanted to visit the Smith Center to see a game in Foggy Bottom. But it seems like every season GW shows up in these rankings as an under the radar team to watch out for and every season they end up nowhere close to the NCAAs. The Revs only return one starter from last season's disappointment and added mostly failed P5.5 transfers. The non-con is also mostly a wasteland. As interested as the sickos will be in their games against UAB, San Francisco and Western Kentucky, those are ultimately Q3 games. So the only other contests GW has of note before A10 play begins is a trip to Boston College and a neutral site encounter with Utah St.
#85 – Nevada Wolfpack: 24-13 (12-8) 5th in MWC
Q1: @Grand Canyon, @New Mexico
Gooey Middle: St Mary’s(n), @UCSB, Santa Clara(n), Colorado St(n), @UNLV, @Hawaii, @Wyoming, Grand Canyon, New Mexico
Potential Bad Losses: 20
D2 Disgrace?: yes (Cal Poly Humboldt)
at large goals: 25-6. 1-1 vs Q1. 6-5 vs Q1/2. 19-1 vs Q3/4.
words: After 32 seasons as a D1 college basketball head coach, Steve Alford will retire in March. When he finally puts a bow on his career Alford will have somehow managed to win around 670 games while simultaneously underwhelming/completely pissing off no fewer than 7 separate fan bases. Congratulation on a job done, Steve. This year's Wolfpack team return double double machine Elijah Price and transfers in stat stuffing point guard Styles Price from a horrendously bad Pepperdine. But beyond that there isn't a whole lot on the roster that leads me to believe Nevada will be anything more than the 3rd best team in a 2 bid league. Their non-con has some fun games against nearly half the WCC, but their isn't enough on it to lower the at large bar to where the Wolfpack could realistically clear.
#89 – McNeese Cowboys: 28-6 (19-3) 2nd in Southland
Q1:
Gooey Middle: @Texas St, @North Texas, Santa Clara(n), @Stephen F Austin
Potential Bad Losses: 25
D2 Disgrace?: yes (College of Biblical Studies, Champion Christian)
at large goals: The yearly all out brawl between McNeese and Stephen F Austin for the Southland's autobid is always a lot of fun. But this is the kind of non-con scheduling that'll give BU89 a heart murmur. If you squint, the scheduling isn't QUITE as bad as Miami's was last season, but that only means the Cowboys will need to go one shy of full Redhawks to have any hope of snagging an at large bid. 28-1 or GTFH. The roster is actually pretty good for a low major. Highlighted by the return of McNeese's best player in Larry Johnson.
#90 – South Florida Bulls: 25-9 (15-3) 1st in AAC
Q1: @DePaul, @Dayton, Alabama, @Wichita
Gooey Middle: @George Mason, St Louis(n), Wichita, @Memphis, @Charlotte, @Tulsa, @FAU, @Temple
Potential Bad Losses: 20
D2 Disgrace?: no
at large goals: 25-7. 1-3 vs Q1. 6-6 vs Q1/2. 19-1 vs Q3/4.
words: Outside of double digit scorer Josh Omojafo, USF lost their entire roster (and HC) from last year's NCAA tournament team. In comes Chris Mack and a slew of transfers highlighted by Toledo's leading scorer, Sonny Wilson. The Bulls' non-con schedule includes a (remarkable) home game against Alabama, as well as road trips to Depaul, Dayton and George Mason. If the American has any hope of being a multi big league, they'll need South Florida to win at least one of those games.
#91 – Santa Clara Broncos: 26-9 (15-3) 3rd in WCC
Q1: @Grand Canyon, @St Mary’s
Gooey Middle: @North Texas, New Mexico, VCU, Nevada(n), Boise(n), Oregon St(n), @Pacific, @Loyola Marymount, St Mary's
Potential Bad Losses: 20
D2 Disgrace?: yes (Dominican)
at large goals: 25-6. 1-1 vs Q1. 6-5 vs Q1/2. 19-1 vs Q3/4.
words: Ignore Torvik on this one, Santa Clara is the best team in the WCC and will likely win the regular season title outright. The Broncos lost metric darling Alan Graves to the NBA and leading scorer Christian Hammond to the portal, but they've managed to retain 6 other contributors from last season and added dynamic guard David Castillo from Kansas St. With Mark Few and Randy Bennett gone, Herb Sendek is also the best coach left in the WCC by a wide margin. Since the P5 are mostly cowards and refuse to play games they might lose, I really like what Santa Clara has tried to do with other mid majors during their non-con schedule. There are road trips to Grand Canyon and North Texas. Home dates with New Mexico, McNeese and VCU. And a healthy dose of neutral site games with Illinois St, Nevada, Murray St, Boise St and Oregon St.
#93 - George Mason: 23-9 (11-7) 5th in A10
Q1:@High Point, @VCU, @Dayton, @St Louis
Gooey Middle: USF, @George Washington, @St Bonaventure, @St Joes, VCU, @Davidson
Potential Bad Losses: 21
D2 Disgrace?: yes (McDaniel)
at large goals: 25-6. 1-3 vs Q1. 7-5 vs Q1/2. 20-1 vs Q3/4.
words: Like many mids out there, Tony Skinn lost basically every player that significantly contributed to his team last season. Fortunately for Skinn, 2025 first team all A10 selection Braydon OConnor missed all of last season with a broken foot and will be returning to Fairfax. He will be joined by a group of transfers highlighted by 20ppg scorer Baracka Okojie. While the roster might be there to compete for an at large bid, the schedule likely is not. The Patriots' only non-con games of note are a (admittedly very fun) road trip to High Point and a home date with South Florida. Everything else their AD cooked up ranges from bad (neutral site games with UMKC, Towson and Bradley??) to embarrassing (9 Q4 or non D1 home games).
