A Drinking Blog With a Collegiate Sports Problem Marks A Year
Thanks for being here, all. Let’s do another year, yeah?
Great, this fucking guy again. Alright, let's hit the Fitzgerald-emblazoned schedule graphic and get to our predictions for MSU's third head coach in 4 seasons.
If you missed our recap from last year, hit the link below!
Michigan State Spartans, 2025 Recap: Somehow, Fitzgerald Returned
This might as well be Pat Fitzgerald’s supervillain origin story
Off Tackle Republic
Schedule
Predictions
Transient Buckeye: Let me start by posing a philosophical question for you. If your team were in the market for a new coach, would you want Urban Meyer to take the job? The "pro" argument is obviously record-based. Urban Meyer was an extraordinarily successful coach--he won at a high rate at every stop throughout his collegiate career. But the cons are significant, too. The man has more baggage than a Louis Vuitton store, and while he's only been away from the college game for a handful of years, the sport has changed enormously in the meantime, and there are questions about how well he'd be able to function in the changed landscape.
Why bring up Urban Meyer at all in this conversation? Because Pat Fitzgerald is basically Dollar Store Urban Meyer. At his best, Fitzgerald produced very good results at Northwestern (though his lows were a lot lower than Meyer's). But he left Northwestern with a lot of his own baggage in tow, and as with Meyer, there are some serious questions about how well he's going to be able to navigate college football in the NIL era. In today's sport, player agency--something Fitzgerald fought tooth and nail to minimize throughout his tenure at NU--has been greatly amplified.
I think most MSU fans would be absolutely thrilled if Fitzgerald is able to get MSU to the levels of success he attained in even years at Northwestern, since that would be a huge improvement over anything they've had lately. But can he? The schedule looks...manageable-ish? The nonconference is tricky. MSU should probably be able to beat Toledo and Eastern Michigan, but Toledo can be pretty feisty, and a Rocket upset wouldn't be a huge shock. Notre Dame is going to do unspeakable things to MSU in South Bend. But the Big Ten schedule is pretty doughy. There's no Indiana, Iowa, Ohio State, Penn State, or USC, all teams that figure to be a good deal better than MSU in 2026. Oregon is an auto-loss, and Michigan feels like a likely loss. But MSU should have at least a puncher's chance against everybody else.
In the end, while I think Fitzgerald will be an X's and O's upgrade over Johnathan Smith, it feels like the talent cupboard is going to be pretty bare this season. I'm going to say MSU goes 5-7 overall, 4-5 in the Big Ten. Yes, that means I'm projecting them to lose to Toledo, but I think they'll improve enough to pick off a few of the petty larcenists' row of Big Ten teams that they play. Next most likely outcome is probably 5-7 (3-6), meaning they'd beat UT in the opener, but drop an additional game in Big Ten play. 6-6 should probably get Fitzgerald the Big Ten Coach of the Year award.
Kind of...: That is a thorough preview that I will not seek to improve on. The Fitzgerald Uncertainty Principle is strong. His accomplishments at Northwestern are real, but the landscape is very different now and "Was it mostly Mike Hankwitz?" still seems a valid question. Fitzgerald was smart enough to buy low, as a combined Jonathan/John L. Smith still should've been able to get a couple of wins out of this conference schedule.
Then again, that's part of the problem. MSU's floor is pretty high. But, a lot of outside things--administrative unrest, NIL, Indiana's rise--have lowered the ceiling. I mean, stop for a second. Nick Marsh fled to Indiana. (I'm a Wisconsin fan...I get it...Nowakowski, Zachman, Brunner). Looking at Nebraska, Illinois, Northwestern, and Washington--all at home--and saying "3-1 should get them a bowl game" is an indictment. And also, I don't think it's gonna happen. I'll say coin flip between 5-7/3-6 or 4-8/2-7. I do have the MSU/Illinois game circled though. Bielema and Fitzgerald have only met 5 times, but Bielema is 4-1 and the wins have been: 41-9 and 70-23 (UW/NW) and 47-14 and 41-3 (Ill/NW). I would assume Fitzgerald is aware of this. I know Bielema is. Let's have a grudge!
