With credits to long-time reader/commenter Mochila, this is really all that we need to provide in order to properly lead off the final Indiana article of the offseason.
Schedule
Predictions
glassjawed: Hoosiers finish 10-2. Lose to both playoff teams they face by a combined 4 points. Cignetti understands the assignment and wins their 10 other games by an average of 30. But because of a SOS somewhere in the 40s, they are left out of the CFP. IU declines their invitation to the ReliaQuest Bowl.
HoustonBoiler: Indiana should absolutely roll to wins in their first five games. Game 6, at Nebraska, should be a bit more of a challenge and Indiana could be tempted to look ahead to their week 7 matchup with Ohio State. However, I don't see it with Cig in charge, so I still expect Indiana to win this one. Then things get real with consecutive games versus Ohio State and at Michigan. Indiana should have no problem with Minnesota but the Bloomington PD has been pesky in the past. Neither USC nor Purdue will present a problem, though the game at Washington could be tricky as the Huskies play much better at home and are way, WAY cuter.
I will go with 11-1 overall and 8-1 in conference. Indiana will drop one, mostly likely against Ohio State. If Indiana beats Ohio State, could they have a letdown in Ann Arbor or later in Seattle, though I view these as less likely. And yes, it pains me to type these words.
Transient Buckeye: I think Indiana winds up at 10-2 this season. They walked the line a few too many times last season, and all of those games fell Indiana's way. I think one of the coins lands on "tails" this year. I also have Ohio State beating them in Bloomington. I have to slightly disagree with @glassjawed, I think Indiana, as defending national champs, gets some benefit of the doubt. 10-2 will get them back into the CFP field. They probably won't be in the Big Ten title game at 10-2, since they're not losing to anyone in the non-con. But they'll get the chance to make another run in the postseason, and they'll be good enough that nobody's going to look forward to playing them.
Now...about that non-con. Curt Cignetti has been unapologetic about Indiana's Charmin-soft non-conference scheduling. On the one hand, I get it. Objectively, it's probably the smartest thing to do. And if Indiana was still a low to middling Big Ten team, stacking the non-conference schedule with cupcakes would be a necessity in order to give the team a legit shot at a bowl bid. But they're not there anymore, and they don't need to do that. Give your fans something to look forward to before October.
Kind of...: If they go 10-2/7-2, then that means a couple of pretty good wins. SHOULD be good enough for a playoff nod. Vandy missed at 10-2 last year, but that's the only SEC/B1G team to miss thus far. And their best wins seem worse than Indiana's are likely to be. Maybe the committee sends a message RE: non-conference and denies them, but it would be pretty awkward given that Alabama, you know, actually lost to FSU last year and still got in at 10-3 (even if there's an unspoken "you don't get punished for losing the conference championship game" rule, they still were 10-2...sure they beat Georgia and maybe that outweighs losing to FSU...either way, if Indiana is left out at 10-2, and Washington, Michigan, and USC are pretty good this year, then controversy will ensue).
Personally, I think they go 11-1/8-1 so it doesn't matter. Washington is tough at home, but I think their defense can flummox Bryce Underwood and Demond Williams enough to get those road wins. And I don't see USC going to Bloomington in mid-November and leaving with a win.
IUinVA: WELL, WELL, WELL. Look what Cignetti did. All of our esteemed “writers” are now penciling in the Indiana Football Hoosiers for 10+ wins. What the hell happened in two years? What even is this Program? (teaser for a future post). Also, hello.
The non-conference slate is … bad. I’m not going to try to sugar coat it. It’s bad. It’s pre-season, work out the kinks, get a look at the third stringers bad. I have no problem with this. If anyone is mad about IU’s non-conference scheduling, just ask yourself why? Are you mad because they won’t lose? Are you mad that the current system allows them to do this? Are you mad that your favorite team doesn’t use this same strategy? The next two against Rutgers and N’ern should be wins as well. Unless something goes terribly wrong, IU is going to start 5-0, then, buckle up.
While I hear plenty about the three non-conference games, what I’m not hearing from anyone is THE GAUNTLET in the middle of IU’s schedule. We’re talking about what will likely feature six straight ranked opponents (Nebraska will be ranked at 5-0, Minnesota may be more iffy but a 5-2 start is there for them). Survive that and IU will have to finish with four or five straight Top 10 teams to defend their title. Yea, those three tomato cans to start the season don’t sound so bad.
I think the team will objectively be better this season, but that stretch in the schedule is brutal. As much as I want to yell 32-0, I think they’ll drop at least one. I’ll say 11-1.
Biff: "That Rutgers matchup could be a trap game for Ind..." * I am dragged off-stage by a gigantic shepherd's crook *
Indiana's going to be a tank again. Nebraska is not going to be better enough to beat them, neither is Minnesota. The second half stretch is brutal, and as Transient Buckeye pointed out, last year required absolutely everything to fall right, and it did, which is true for most National Champions. What's also true is that it doesn't usually fall right twice in a row which is why I'm calling 10-2. IU beats tOSU or Michigan but not both, same deal with USC and Washington. I don't believe for a minute they drop a game to anyone else.
