I’m Bored. Let’s Argue About Schedules, Part III: Penn State, Northwestern, Iowa, Rutgers, Wisconsin
Okay…time to put a bow on our “bored-as-shit Spring ’25” schedule rankings. The five remaining schools are only separated by a point, but, qualitatively, when I review these schools’ schedules, I do feel confident my system identified the teams with the toughest rows to hoe. That said, for a couple of these teams, for positive reasons in one case, and negative in others, it really might not matter.
5. PENN STATE (20.5 points)
Penn State is coming off a B1G title game and CFP semifinal appearance, brings back a ton of talent, and has a joke of a non-conference schedule (Nevada, FIU, Villanova, all at home). So, don’t feel too bad that they have it worse than Ohio State and Michigan, okay? Still, if we assume 10-2 is the magic record for a CFP spot, this is tricky. @OSU, vs. Oregon, vs. Indiana, @Iowa. You should expect 2-2 at the absolute worst, but, still, yeah, these aren’t pushovers. And @UCLA, one week after hosting Oregon, is lurking too. The Bruins could easily end up being on the same level as last year’s USC team. And that game was a battle for PSU. And those are five of PSU’s first six conference games (the other is vs. Northwestern). The closing kick—@Michigan State, vs. Nebraska, @Rutgers—should make for a good November. Big things are expected of PSU this year, and rightfully so. But, it is very clear that Michigan has an easier slate than the Nittany Lions do. So, PSU might have to settle for a CFP bid from the third or fourth place slot. Worked out fine for OSU last year, though.
misdreavus79: The formula was set in 2023.* Return everyone, play three patsies in the non conference, ???, profit. The Lions got 1 and 2 checked off when they returned everyone with eligibility left on their offense, and the majority of their draft-eligible players on defense. Like Michigan two years ago and Ohio State last season, they replaced a road game against a power conference opponent (in Penn State’s case, Virginia Tech) with a home game against nobody (Villanova). Now, all they have to do is turn that ??? into profit they way their other Big Ten East powers did the previous two seasons.
Playing at Iowa, likely at night, is never easy, and Oregon has spent loads of money taking their roster from good to elite. Like Ohio State, I expect the Ducks to backfill their massive losses in production with enough quality to still be competing for a conference title in 2025.
That leaves you with six conference games Penn State will be favored to win, likely by double digits. Can any of Rutgers, Michigan State, Nebraska, Northwestern, UCLA, or Indiana catch the Nittany Lions with their pants down? Nothing is impossible in life, but I doubt it.
*Yeah yeah cheating blah blah blah let it go.
RUReady4Brazil: They still should be able to make the playoff if the Big Ten gets four teams. My hunch is there will only be three as the SEC redemption tour is about to get wild. I think PSU finishes fourth and is on the outside looking in. Lose to Oregon, Ohio State, and one more.
T-3. NORTHWESTERN (20 points)
Good news @mnw and company: Duke is off the schedule! (Though @Tulane to open things up is no picnic.) Bad news: @PSU, vs. Oregon, @Illinois, vs. Michigan. Four of the six Tier 1 or 2 teams. Yuck. @USC and @Nebraska don’t look fun on paper either. Which leaves vs. UCLA, vs. Minnesota, and vs. Purdue as the likeliest path to bowl eligibility. Remember how David Braun rallied the team in 2023 and pulled a bowl bid out of nowhere? And remember how (somewhat) cool it was how you all made lemonade out of lemons in terms of the stadium situation last year? You do? Great! Hold on to those memories. I’m sure there’ll be a silver lining this year, but I’m struggling to be more concrete based on this slate.
RUReady4Brazil: If they hadn’t shocked us so many times before (and Rutgers wasn’t in the conference) I’d put my most confidence at the Wildcats in the basement. Their coaches seem fine, but this is tough especially with less to sell than their former west rivals.
MNW: Oh great. Super fun. Super cool. We’re a Tier 1 team too, right? That’s why we’re here?
It’s a brutal schedule, and the most likely path requires Northwestern to do multiple things they’re not good at:
- Winning on the road in the non-conference
- Winning at Wrigley Field at least once
- Failing that, beating...Michigan?
Five wins is a credible “best case” right now. Let’s hope Preson Stone is the second coming of Peyton Ramsey.
What a sentence to write on the internet.
T-3. IOWA (20 points)
I know it feels like Kirk Ferentz (or, Phil Parker) just cranks out 8-9 wins on autopilot every year. And it feels that way because it’s true. The last time Iowa didn’t win at least eight (other than 6-2 in Covid year) was 2014. Of course, that takes us back to the early years of the B1G West. Might there be a correlation? Well, we’re gonna find out this year. Kinnick magic will be tested as Iowa hosts Penn State and Oregon. And, if Cigs has Indiana rebuilt, their trip to Kinnick might not be fun for the hosts, either. Even the two easiest home games—Minnesota and Michigan State—are teams that have beaten the Hawkeyes in the last year or two. Then there’s the road slate: Rutgers, Wisconsin, Nebraska, and USC.
Yeah, Iowa owns Nebraska and Wisconsin is a trash fire, so 3-1 seems reasonable. But Wisconsin is sandwiched between Indiana and Penn State, and USC is right after Oregon. Bet against the Hawkeyes’ steadiness at your own peril. But there have been no elite wins post-Covid (top-10 PSU turned out to be really overrated in 2021), and this is a challenging schedule. This season will be quite interesting in Iowa City.
RUReady4Brazil: Iowa will go 8-4. Or will they? A team with no elite wins eventually starts to crack and it feels like this is the year, hopefully starting with their matchup that should be announced as a Friday night soon.
2. RUTGERS (19.5 points)
Back-to-back bowl appearances, and a strong recruiting class coming in. How fun! And opening with Ohio, Miami (OH), and Norfolk State means a 4-0 start is possible if they can take out Iowa at home. Is this the year Schiano’s charges make their presence felt? Well, the next three are @Minnesota, @Washington, and vs. Oregon. So, beating Iowa seems necessary if they want to be better than .500 after a must-win @Purdue. If they’re only 4-4 (or worse) at that point, bowl chances seem remote given a closing kick of @Illinois, vs. Maryland, @Ohio State, and vs. Penn State. Murderous might be too strong of a description, but the margin of error is quite small.
RUReady4Brazil: For a Big Ten team, I normally scoff at a schedule that does not include a P4 opponent. That being said, I wouldn’t frown at any of the non-blue bloods doing it if they are in the same situation as Rutgers currently. They lost everybody from an already abysmal defense that relied on opponents to do stupid stuff to win games, their offense lost its two best players, and now their best returning player just entered the transfer portal. And all this in a year when their opponents have the 3rd most P4 wins a year ago per Dan at Gopher insight.
1. WISCONSIN (19 points)
This will surely be the year Luke Fickell and the Badgers start to turn the corner right? Well, conference play does start with (September) Maryland coming to Camp Randall, which is Wisconsin’s only game with a Tier 4 opponent (the Big West isn’t coming back, people; Northwestern and Purdue have rotated off). After that: @Michigan, vs. Iowa, vs. Ohio State, and @Oregon. When hosting Iowa is the most winnable game, you’ve got a tough stretch. After the bye week, Washington comes to town. Which needs to be a win because the finishing trio is @Indiana, vs. Illinois, @Minnesota. So, just to reach 6-6 and a bowl, Wisconsin either needs to spring a road upset or they need to go 6-1 at home. They sure as hell aren’t doing any better than 2-1 in non-conference play, given that they’re @Alabama. Good luck Badgers!
misdreavus79: Holy Jesus Wisconsin got fucked!
MNW: One truly hates to see it.
RUReady4Brazil: And I thought OSU, @Iowa, @PSU bck to back to back was a bad beat Rutgers got in 2023. This is brutal. I was bullish on Wisconsin pre-2023 but with their history and fan base there are no moral victories this year. It just feels like things could snowball as soon as that September Maryland team arrives in Madison.
