We're mostly through non-conference play, so we know enough to make assessments that conference play will likely make look foolish. [Four scintillating non-conference games remain: Howard at Rutgers (9/25), Notre Dame at Purdue (9/26), Ball State at Northwestern (10/10), and Nevada at UCLA (10/31).] But at present, and possibly for some time to come, the big story still seems to be the ending of the Western Michigan/ Michigan game. There's not really much to say. The FBS oversight committee has made clear that the last play shouldn't have occurred and Western Michigan should have won. However, there's nothing to be done at this point. I don't have much to add to any of this, but I do have a couple of thoughts stepping back a bit.
- If there's any conspiratorial element here--and I don't mean to suggest there is--it's not about protecting a "blue blood like Michigan," it's about the B1G overall. More on that in a second. In the meantime, an aside:
1.A. I have a strange fixation on the concept of what constitutes a "blue blood," and have thought about it far more than is reasonable. But I do think there is a clear, precise definition that makes sense both in terms of college football history overall, and in explaining the specific time period that gave rise to the concept. This would require a separate article that I'm sure is of more interest to me than almost anybody else, so for the sake of some semblance of brevity, let's just say that the original blue bloods are: Alabama, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Michigan, Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and USC. I'm not saying this is an accurate conception today (Nebraska, heh heh), but I am saying that these are the teams that the term initially contemplated.
- Anyway, despite Michigan's status as a "blue blood," I think it's totally reasonable to conclude that, even IF the fix was in (and I'm not saying it was; I generally subscribe to the "blame incompetence first" school of thought), this sort of thing was just as likely to happen if the game has been Illinois/Western Illinois (or any other non-blue blood B1G school).
- For partial support I introduce two different games from my summer free time-based tour through B1G seasons ending in 1 and 6 over the last 40 years or so.
3.A. When facing a B1G opponent, indeed a bitter rival, Michigan has found itself on the wrong end of "one second left."
3.B. Video quality has advanced over the last 20 years, but believe me when I tell you that THIS was clearly a blown call and should serve to remind everybody that when blue blood status and conference affiliation collide, the latter wins out. (Especially Pac-10/Pac-12 refs!)
- Blue bloods get upset early in the season all the time. Been a long while, but one of the most famous days for such a thing occurred on September 12, 1981--opening day--when unranked Iowa knocked off #7 Nebraska 10-7, and unranked Wisconsin upset preseason #1 Michigan 21-14. Coincidentally enough, if you wanted to pinpoint when the historical grip blue bloods had over the sport started to slip, this wouldn't be a bad season, or even particular day, to start with. #2 Alabama was knocked off by unranked Georgia Tech the same day.
- Within 10 years, the blueblood hierarchy had been toppled. Speed, especially from the state of Florida, had remade the game. As evidence, in consecutive weeks in 1991 Nebraska and Michigan were handed their sole regular-season losses in convincing enough fashion that the shift in power was blindingly obvious. First, on September 19, #9 Nebraska hosted #4 Washington and the Huskers held a 21-9 lead late in the third quarter. But over the last 16 minutes the Huskies outscored Nebraska 27-0 in such an explosion of skill position talent that Tom Osborne was persuaded he had to change his recruiting approach. Nebraska would go 9-1-1 in the regular-season...and it was obvious they weren't a true contender. A week later, #3 Michigan, who would go 10-1 and roll through the Big Ten, hosted #1 Florida State...and got destroyed 51-31. The powers in the Midwest had fallen behind. At the time, Florida State has as good a claim as anybody not named Miami to be viewed as a "new blueblood." Time marches on.
But let's close by looking forward. Too early to worry about CFP projections or anything, but I've always been fond of dividing the conference into tiers. After all, it's become clear since the expansion to 18 that it's folly to pretend there is always clear separation. There are only 10 possible conference records a team can have in a season (9-0, 8-1,...) so there will be a lot of ties. But we can still cluster teams into four or five tiers. And this week might really help with that process. Take a look:
TIER ONE: ON A CFP PATH
Indiana--Oh, I know. They aren't quite as dominant as last year. Do YOU see them going worse than 10-2?
Ohio State--Oh, I know. They lost to Texas. And the conference schedule is tough. Still, they led the #1 team in the nation by 20 on the road. With their talent, I suspect most of you predict they'll end up in the CFP.
USC/Oregon winner--Both teams have looked quite mortal. But this is possibly Oregon's second-toughest remaining game. And if USC wins, they only have to go 5-2 the rest of the way to get earn a spot (which still might be less than a 50/50 proposition, I concede).
Iowa/Michigan winner--Especially if it's Iowa. Look at their remaining schedule. If they beat Michigan, they can go 10-2. Michigan has a harder road, but obviously 4-0, with a couple of solid wins would be "on path."
Penn State--Largely because of the schedule, but they have looked quite solid. 10-2 seems entirely feasible.
TIER TWO: ABOVE AVERAGE...I GUESS
USC/Oregon loser--Either this will be a team with two losses already, or a team that really struggled with Rutgers.
Iowa/Michigan loser--Either a Michigan team that will be lucky not to be 2-2, or an Iowa team that will look like a pretty typical 8-4 Ferentz outfit needing to either beat OSU, or Washington in Seattle, to do any better than 9-3.
Washington--Nobody believes in you, but somebody has to stumble to 8-4 and you have more talent on paper than the Mushy Middle.
UCLA--Bruins only leave the Pacific time zone three times. If they beat Maryland Saturday...
TIER THREE: THE MUSHY (LOWER) MIDDLE
Nebraska--Undefeated, but would they be against Minnesota's schedule? Much less MSU/Wisconsin's?
Northwestern--see Nebraska above.
Illinois--Losing to Duke doesn't mean you're bad, but it probably means you're not as good as the last couple of years.
Minnesota--Mississippi State loss still looks bad (margin of loss), but maybe not as bad as initially though (Miss. State thumping South Carolina in Columbia). Plus Peej has earned a benefit that Fickell and (post-Hankwitz) Fitz have not.
TIER FOUR: THE DREGS
Maryland--September Maryland is no match for quality opposition (and James Franklin on the sideline). Showed some scrap, so probably the Tier Four team likeliest to ascend. But let's wait for post-September accomplishments before we do anything rash.
Wisconsin--Looked fine vs. Notre Dame in spots, but has struggled to run the ball. Schedule is there to snag a bowl bid, but hard to imagine anything more than a schedule-aided spot in Tier Three.
Michigan State--showed some feistiness against Notre Dame. Beating Nebraska would see you ascend. Losing to them, and then at Wisconsin, would suggest you're properly slotted.
Rutgers--Looked promising against jet-lagged, no-defense-having USC. Maybe you're not the worst team in the conference.
Purdue--Probably should have beaten Wake Forest. Maybe you're not the worst team in the conference.
