Arch Madness, MAAC, and WCC Tournament Previews

Behold in all it's glory, the bracket for the best conference tournament in the land: Arch Madness.

Missouri Valley Conference

Bracket

1) Belmont, 2) Bradley, 3) Illinois State, 4) Murray State, 5) UIC, 6) Northern Illinois, 7) Valparaiso, 8) Southern Illinois, 9) Drake, 10) Indiana State, 11) Evansville

Format

Pretty standard 11 team format. Games take place across 4 days in St. Louis, Missouri at the Enterprise Center.

How to Watch

Opening Round and Quarterfinals: MVC TV Network/ESPN+
Semifinals: CBSSN
Championship: CBS/Paramount+

Favorites

1 Belmont Bruins - Belmont can shoot the ball. They have the #1 effective field goal percentage in the nation behind a third best three point percentage (41.2%) and fifth best two point percentage. That's really, really good. They make 3% more of their threes than the best B1G team in that category (Purdue). To beat Belmont, you turn them over and control the glass. They are vulnerable in both categories.

2 Bradley Braves - In a double round robin schedule, Bradley has the 2nd best record but KenPom actually has them 7th. That should tell you something about how close the MVC is. Head coach Brian Wardle has been at Bradley for 11 seasons. He's won Arch Madness once as a 5 seed but spent the past three seasons as the bridesmaid to Drake losing to the Bulldogs in the semifinals once and championship game twice. The Braves will win by valuing possessions more than their opponent.

3 Illinois State Redbirds - Illinois State brought back an experienced roster from last season. Predictive metrics still like them, but they did underperform from preseason expectations. The Redbirds do a really good job of limiting opponents to 1 shot.

4 Murray State Racers - The Racers race up and down the court. They are the conference's quickest team. Their three point defense is sloppy but if they survive until the championship that may play into their favor as tired legs of their opponents cause shots to fall short.

I won't say they are favorites, but don't be shocked if Illinois Chicago, Northern Iowa, or Southern Illinois make a deep run. The Panthers are the second best MVC team on Kenpom and particularly intriguing as their nation's slowest pace and top 20 defense should play up in tense tournament moments. Northern Iowa's defense is smothering and even though they never get to the free throw line or get offensive boards, that's a stylistic choice not an inability.

Never Made the Tournament Club Members

N/A

Other Long Droughts

Illinois State Redbirds (1998)
Evansville Purple Aces (1999)
Illinois Chicago Flames (2004)
Southern Illinois Salukis (2007)
Indiana State Sycamores (2011)

Rooting Interests

We have some Drake fans, at least one Bradley fan (BoilerUp89), and I wouldn't be surprised if the rest of you have rooting interests somewhere in the MVC.

Belmont only has 5 losses. I don't see a 6 loss Bruins team making the field with an at-large bid (their non-conference was not great and they lost a home game to Richmond in addition to their four MVC losses), but a kinder, gentler committee could conceivably think about it. Bubble teams probably want Belmont to lose early or win the whole tournament. Unlikely to come into play unless all those bubble teams also lose out, but possible.

Perpetually Aggrieved Wildcat: WEAR THE D

Conference NCAA Tournament History

Last season, Drake - led by Iowa's Ben McCollum and Bennett Stirtz defeated 6 seed Missouri 67-57 before falling to 3 seed Texas Tech in the Round of 32.

The MVC has had plenty of tournament success with UIC being the only team without a tournament win. Belmont has never won a round of 64 game as they won a First Four game in 2019.

The Bradley Braves were the national runner-up twice competing the feat in 1950 and 1954. They lost to City College New York 68-71 and La Salle 76-92.

Drake made three straight Elite 8s and one Final Four in 1969. In that Final Four they lost to the juggernaut of the late 1960s/early 1970s UCLA 94-104.

Indiana State was the 1976 national runner-up with Larry Bird. They lost to Jud Heathcote, Magic Johnson, and the Michigan State Spartans.

Valparaiso had a special 1998 tournament. They beat 4 seed Ole Miss with one of the shots of NCAA tournament history and followed that up with an overtime victory over Florida State to reach the Sweet 16.

Southern Illinois has topped out at the Sweet 16 three times, most recently under current Northwestern associate head coach Chris Lowery in 2007 and formerly under Bruce Weber in 2002.

In 2010 Northern Iowa upset 1 seed Kansas in the Round of 32 69-67 before falling to Michigan State the following week. Ali Farokhmanesh!

Storylines and Likely Seeds

After Indiana State got hosed two years ago we are unlikely to see much discussion around Belmont's at-large hopes this tournament season. The MVC is wide open though which should make for a fantastic tournament.

Belmont would be a 12 seed. Most of the other likely contenders should be able to get a 13 seed, while the three real underdogs would struggle to receive a 15 seed if they sneak through.

PAW: I doubt BU89 is coming back to this and none of you are reading it, but I'm working on a thesis whereby Belmont and (now) Murray have revitalized the MVC with their style of play. A few teams with good tempo AND good offense, especially in contrast with existing powers like UNI and (formerly) Drake makes for a lot of fun. Always must-watch stuff in Arch Madness.

Go Drake, always, but I wouldn't be upset to see the Flames make it.

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

Bracket

Format

The MAAC doesn't let everybody in. The bottom three teams (Niagara, Canisius, and Rider) failed to make the cut. Otherwise, this is a normal 10 team tournament field. No reseeding.

Like some other low major tournaments, the MAAC gives their 1 and 2 seeds an advantage. Both play on day 1 of the quarterfinals while the 3 and 4 seeds play on day 2 of the quarterfinals. Two games a day until we reach the championship which breaks up the rhythm and takes place two days after the semifinals.

All games will be at the Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey.

How to Watch

First Round thru Semifinals: ESPN+
Championship: ESPN/ESPN2

Favorites

1 Merrimack Warriors - Merrimack has won four regular season conference titles in their 7 Division I seasons. In their third season of NCAA postseason eligibility can they break thru to the Big Dance?

Saint Peter's, Siena, Marist, and Quinnipiac will try to stop them.

Never Made the Tournament Club Members

Quinnipiac Bobcats (1999)
Sacred Heart Pioneers (2000)
Merrimack Warriors (2024)

Merrimack won the NEC conference tournament before moving to the MAAC. Unfortunately for my liver they were ineligible for the NCAA tournament in 2023.

Other Long Droughts

Rider Broncs (1994)
Canisius Golden Griffins (1996) - already eliminated
Marist Red Foxes (1997)
Fairfield Stags (1997)
Niagara Purple Eagles (2007) - already eliminated
Siena Saints (2010)

Rooting Interests

Like me you are probably mad at all these premier polling universities after they failed to help us stop current events by not properly informing the public about the possibilities of extremely unpleasantness. So Marist, Siena, Quinnipiac are all out.

Obviously Indiana fans are rooting for Saint Peter's.

If you like the 7th inning stretch tradition, root for Manhattan. The Jaspers are named after Brother Jasper who invented the concept in 1882.

The correct way to choose a team however is to pick your favorite mascot. The below video is missing Merrimack and Sacred Heart (they joined the following year) so just picture a generic Warrior and Dr. John Dorian.

Conference NCAA Tournament History

Last year, Mount St. Mary's defeated American in the First Four before being sacrificed to nobility that worship devils: Duke.

Canisius made the 1955 and 1956 Regional Finals losing to La Salle and Temple respectively.

In 1958 Manhttan finished fourth in the regional after defeating West Virginia before losing to Dartmouth and Maryland. The Jaspers also beat 4 seed Florida in 2004.

Niagara beat Penn in 1970 to advance to the Sweet 16.

Siena has made three Round of 32s including twice under old friend Fran McCaffery in 2008 and 2009 - the latter over 8 seed Ohio State.

Somehow, I almost managed to scroll past Saint Peter's. The Peacocks shocked 2 seed Kentucky in overtime in 2022 and followed it up with wins over Murray State and Purdue to reach the Elite 8. I will not be taking questions.

Iona has an official 0-16 record in NCAA tournament games but one their 1980 first round game over Holy Cross before later vacating it. As a result they hold the record for most NCAA tournament losses without a win. Nebraska, the challenge has been laid down!

Storylines and Likely Seeds

This will likely be a 16 seed conference. Feels like I've already said that for 5 conferences already and I haven't gotten to the SWAC or MEAC yet, so take those previous projections with a grain of salt because the MAAC tournament champion will almost certainly be a 16 seed.

There's a strong possibility we get a NMTC graduation out of this conference. Merrimack is the clear favorite, and Quinnipiac is a solid 5 seed that has potential to win the MAAC as well.

PAW: Disproportionately, some of the least efficient offenses in college basketball are in the MAAC. Merrimack is slow and boring. All those polls can eat my butt.

West Coast Conference

Bracket

1) Gonzaga, 2) St. Mary's, 3) Santa Clara, 4) Oregon State, 5) San Francisco, 6) Pacific, 7) Seattle, 8) Washington State, 9) Portland, 10) Loyola Marymount, 11) San Diego, 12) Pepperdine

Format

Last go around for Gonzaga as they are going with Washington State and Oregon State.

We have a ladder bracket format that was adopted at Gonzaga's insistence a few years back to help prevent them from leaving for the MWC. Well, they kind of did leave for the MWC in the end.

Anyway, two games and two games only a day until we get to the championship with no days off in between rounds.

All games will be played at Orleans Arena in Paradise, Nevada.

How to Watch

First Round thru Third Round: ESPN+
Quarterfinals: ESPN2
Semifinals: split across ESPN & ESPN2
Championship: ESPN

Favorites

1 Gonzaga Bulldogs - Gonzaga's a very good team. They have three losses on the season and the losses couldn't be more different. There's the 40 point blowout to Michigan in Vegas, a 7 point loss at conference bottom feeder Portland, and a 11 point loss at Saint Mary's that wasn't that close in what could have secured Gonzaga the outright WCC championship instead of a tie. Call me crazy, but I don't love the ceiling of this Gonzaga team even if they can win the WCC tournament and get a 3 seed in the Big Dance.

2 Saint Mary's Gaels - It's a familiar formula. Play slow, dominate the boards, and force tough shots for your opponents. This Gaels team is also an excellent three point shooting squad making 38.8% of their attempts. Disregard them at your own risk, they've won 8 in a row.

3 Santa Clara Broncos - Fast tempo, force turnovers, and crash the offensive glass. Santa Clara wants to gain extra possessions and get looks before their opponents defense is set. Head coach Herb Sendek has forgotten more about basketball than most of us ever knew.

Never Made the Tournament Club Members

N/A

Other Long Droughts

Seattle Redhawks (1969)*
Loyola Marymount (1990)
Santa Clara Broncos (1996)
Portland Pilots (1996)
Pepperdine Waves (2002)
San Diego Toreros (2008)
Pacific Tigers (2013)

Look, it's been Gonzaga's league. Everyone else is just living in it.

*Seattle dropped down to NAIA in 1980 and didn't rejoin Division I until 2009.

Rooting Interests

Scroll back up to that list of long droughts. Now tell me how with a straight face that you want to see Indiana in the NCAA Tournament over Santa Clara. There's a lot of great rooting options in the WCC, but Santa Clara can do damage in the tournament if they make it. They belong but it will be safer for them if they take the decision out of the committee's hands.

I suppose Big Ten bubble teams (Ohio State, Indiana, USC?) want Santa Clara to lose. To which I say, power conference bubble teams don't belong in the tournament.

Nebraska, Illinois, Michigan State, and to a much lesser extent at this point Purdue are rooting against Gonzaga as they are competing with the Bulldogs for seed.

Wisconsin and perhaps Iowa are competing with St. Mary's for seed so they will want to root against the Gaels.

Conference NCAA Tournament History

Last season Gonzaga lost to Houston in the Round of 32 and failed to reach the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2014. Saint Mary's snuck past Vanderbilt's ship before being sunk by the Crimson Tide.

Washington State were the 1941 tournament runner-up to the Wisconsin Badgers. Sadly, I've been unable to find Youtube highlights of that game. Then again I didn't actually search for them as I didn't want to screw up the algorithm with pro Badger propaganda.

In 1952, Santa Clara reached the Final Four before losing to Kansas in the semifinals and Illinois in the 3rd place game.

San Francisco won back to back championships in 1955 and 1956. Bill Russell was the star and the Dons won 60 straight games (a record at the time). We've got grainy footage of their championship victory over Iowa.

Seattle were the 1958 runner-up. With Elgin Baylor leading them they came up short against Kentucky 72-84.

The Beavers have made two Final Fours (1949 and 1963), but have largely struggled with basketball for the past forty plus years.

Saint Mary's have made plenty of recent tournaments but haven't yet managed their best finish: the 1959 Elite 8.

The Pacific Tigers defeated Texas Western in the Sweet 16 one year after the Miners won the national championship. The Tigers went on to lose to UCLA in the Regional Final.

Pepperdine made the 1944 Tournament so they were one of the final 8 teams that season. In 1976 they reached the Sweet 16 before losing to UCLA in a valiant 71-76 effort.

Loyola Marymount made the 1990 Elite 8 after star Hank Gathers collapsed and died during the WCC tournament due to a heart condition. The Lions haven't been back to the NCAA tournament since.

Gonzaga didn't make a NCAA tournament until 1995. Since then they've won 46 tournament games - the most without a championship (2 ahead of Purdue and 1 in front of Illinois). The Bulldogs were runner-up in 2017 and 2021.

Storylines and Likely Seeds

It's been a very nice turnaround for Pacific who went from being 9-24 last season to a legitimate top 125 team this year. That story will go unnoticed because we have the potential for a three bid WCC.

Gonzga is in. Saint Mary's is in. Can Santa Clara get in the field with a 15-3 record? The Broncos split with Saint Mary's but couldn't get a win over Gonzaga. They played a challenging non-con collecting wins over McNeese, Xavier, Nevada, Minnesota, and North Texas but missed a major opportunity against Saint Louis by 1 (understandable) and lost a resume killing game to Loyola Chicago 78-80.

I think Santa Clara needs to beat St. Mary's to get in and at that point they might as well win the whole WCC. Expect them to be the focus of the mid-major/high-major debate debate the next two weeks unless they earn the auto-bid.