Last Year
A vintage Greg Gard experience. They looked a little wobbly out of conference in losses to BYU and TCU, but they regrouped in conference to go 14-6 and 24-11 overall. They pipped Illinois and almost got Michigan in the BTT, then landed a five seed in the Big Dance. That didn't go as well, as High Point got them by a point to end their season.
Kind of...: ahem. They pipped Illinois TWICE. And DID GET Michigan in the regular season. (And they looked REALLY wobbly out of conference.) Honestly, though, in a lot of ways, this was far from a vintage Gard team. The loss to BYU was by 28 points. Lost to Nebraska by 30, which was the worst Badger loss since Bo Ryan's first year. And Wisconsin's adjusted tempo was 72.0, which was more than three possessions higher than ANY other Wisconsin team in the KenPom era ('97-present). In fact, from 1997-2023, Wisconsin's high was 66.5. The last three years, the Badgers have gone 68.0, 68.9, 72.0. There have been some fantastic moments and impressive wins. But there's also a grand total of ONE NCAA tournament win over the last three years despite seeds of 5, 3, and 5.
So...Gard has made some changes this year. More on that in a moment, but, while we're not talking to 45-43 shootouts, defensive is getting stressed more, and there will allegedly be an intent to work inside-out more mindfully. We'll see.
Happy Trails
- John Blackwell transferred to Hell, er, Duke
- Nick Boyd got claimed by the eligibility goblin, as did Andrew Rohde
- Aleksas Bieliauskas transferred to South Carolina
Kind of...: Not going to complain on Wisconsin's behalf, just noting as a "sign of the times." Bieliauskas had a nice, encouraging first year. Had season high 17 in the upset of Michigan. But now he's at South Carolina in large part somebody close to him told him there was marginally more money in it for him. Maybe that's all he wants, and, if so, good for him. But maybe there's a better way to do this?
Starters
- PG Owen Foxwell, 6'2'' Freshman: G'day mate! Throw another shrimp on the barbie! Foxwell is technically a freshman but has spent the last few years playing professionally in Australia.
- SG Trey Autry, 6'4'' Senior: Autry comes over from George Washington, and he earned his name as he made threes at a 38% clip on high volume. Wiscy is probably counting on him to do more of that.
- SF Eian Elmer, 6'6'' Senior: Elmer comes over from the Miami University Fun Factory. He did a bit of everything for Miami but was especially good rebounding and shooting from outside.
- PF Austin Rapp, 6'10'' Junior: Rapp, being Australian himself, was instrumental in getting Foxwell to the Badgers. He can also bury it from deep and Wisconsin may be doing the true Gard offense as everyone can nail it from outside.
- C Nolan Winter, 7'0'' Senior: Winter runs it back one more time (or maybe he gets a fifth year, too. I don't know I'm not thinking about 2028). He can also shoot the ball and guarding the Badgers this season means staying near the three point line.
Kind of...: Foxwell is only in Madison for this year. Clock started ticking when he turned 19 under new eligibility rules. However, this is ONLY Winter's fourth year. (And he only averaged 9 minutes/game in '24-'25.). If we want to complain about the sport becoming the redoubt of 24 year-old non-amateurs--and I do--then let's celebrate a kid who is at the same school he started at, has developed, and become the main man. (And, yes, I'm totally including Wisconsin in this. Look at every starter above, save for Winter.)
Foxwell's job #1 is to be a distributor. Hopefully he can get downhill on occasion. But he likely won't look to drive as incessantly as Boyd (and John Tonje before him) did.
Elmer is the guy to watch. Really efficient last year and Gard thinks those numbers can survive increased usage and the step up in competition. Rapp and Autry both work better as complementary pieces. The role is there for Elmer to be the Robin to Winter's Batman. If he seizes it, this is a smart, effective lineup.
Bench
- SG Braeden Carrington, 6'5'' Senior: Maybe. Carrington is in that group of players wanting to play a fifth year, who is on the roster, but whose playing time will be dictated by a judge. Status TBD
- C Victory Onuetu, 6'10'' Sophomore: Now that's a great name. Victory comes over from Hofstra, where he didn't show any stretch but did dominate the boards and block shots.
- SG Jack Janicki, 6'5'' Junior: Janicki has been in the rotation for a couple years as more of an effort guy. We'll see if he can develop into something more than that.
- PG Zach Kinziger, 6'3'' Sophomore: Kinziger barely last season as a freshman but will probably be looked at for depth in the backcourt.
- C Will Garlock, 7'0'' Sophomore: Garlock the Destroyer got a few minutes a game last year and showed some touch around the basket. Certainly in the mix for more time.
- SF Hayden Jones, 6'7'' Sophomore: Yet another sophomore got some time last season but not enough to make any calls on what he'll do this year.
- Fourth other freshmen in high school guards Josh Manchester and LaTrevion Fenderson, as well as well as Australian Isaac Riddle and New Zealand product Jackson Ball. I guess I can't call them Euroballers. Rooballers?
Kind of...: Kinzinger will get every opportunity to become THE guard off the bench. (IF Carrington is eligible, he's the instant offense guy.) He was a fringe top-100 recruit (because Kon Knueppel was never coming to Wisconsin) and big things are hoped for him. Garlock and Jones are both getting the "really-developed-over-the-summer-and-maybe-ready-to-make-the-leap" treatment. If either/both are true, that would be great.
The Badgers just announced that Fenderson won't play this year. Probably about getting him on solid ground academically, especially given the depth ahead of him. There are no redshirts anymore, but that's basically his situation.
Outlook
MaximumSam: I tend to always look at Wisconsin's roster and feel like "that's it" and then they have another great season. So I'm not writing them off. They have a lot of shooters, and while losing Boyd and Blackwell is a big deal, they have all the makings of a vintage Wisconsin team that can win a lot of games. Just with not a whole lot of feats of athleticism.
Kind of...: I don't think they can do better than the last three seasons...in the regular season. But Gard is tired of losing to double-digit seeds, and I think the changes reflect that.
Foxwell is a more traditional pass-first point guard, and, while Gard wants bigs on the court who can hit the three, I DOUBT he wants the Badgers to attempt more 3s than 2s this year (last year, Wisconsin was 6th nationally in 3PA %). Balance is the name of the game...and running through Winter, who's the best player, and could've gotten near Blackwell money if he had entered the portal.
Also...sigh...while not embarrassing, the non-conference schedule is weaker than it has been. No teams with 300+ KenPom ratings, but five against teams in the 200s (and five against teams in the top 100).
Gard probably deserves the benefit of the doubt in terms of spotting talent in the portal. A.J. Storr (check his numbers at Wisconsin, then check his numbers...everywhere else), John Tonje, Nick Boyd. Pretty impressive run. Gard pretty clearly thinks that's possible for Eian Elmer this year. If he's anywhere close to that good, then Wisconsin is going to surprise...again, and be a legit second weekend threat.
glass: wisconsin basketball makes me barf. So I am going to take this opportunity to relive my favorite non Purdue vs Texas game from last season when Joel Foxwell, younger brother to Owen (who was only granted one year of eligibility iirc), went crazy against Gonzaga and led Portland to a 87-80 victory.
BoilerUp89: The starters seem quite strong, with the usual questions that accompany jumps in competition level for the transfers. The bench however looks like a bit of an issue unless Carrington is cleared to play. Might be a shorter rotation that usual and might just always keep 2+ starters on the floor to keep the offense humming.
More generally, there's an image problem for Gard. He's a good solid coach. Nobody denies that. But he's also not Bo Ryan. And the two B1G coaches hes spent the majority of the 2020-2023 seasons being compared against (Underwood and Painter) have now reached heights he hasn't. With health, this team should make the tournament. What can they do to help Gard take the next step - either directly or laying the groundwork for? Or is that not possible? Is Wisconsin now fighting with Iowa & Minnesota instead?
